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Shareholder|Report date|Holding|Change|% Held
The Vanguard Group, Inc.|Mar 5, 2024|189.1m|1.1m|3.54
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company|Mar 14, 2024|141.5m|425.0k|2.65
Columbia Threadneedle Investments (UK)|Mar 5, 2024|137.0m|-73.2m|2.56
Redwheel|Mar 5, 2024|126.3m|-4.7m|2.36
Jupiter Asset Management Ltd.|Mar 5, 2024|116.7m|172.6k|2.18
Acadian Asset Management LLC|Mar 14, 2024|98.1m|4.6m|1.83
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)|Mar 14, 2024|84.1m|-859.3k|1.57
This petition is ridiculous from clueless individuals.
8 million pay packet for the person in charge announced and shares up 2.5p .
Cheers Fatprofits, you have my current view, plus lots of good debate with Tep raised some interesting points re value of the company. Will post when my view changes or if asked a direct question. Best regards.
Keep posting.
Oh, final comment, I can see that my posts, while trying to be I formative with openness and honesty can cause a trigger of emotion as a reaction. I will therefore not be posting anymore on this board. I will keep an eye on it and if anyone wants my view just ask. Good luck to all CNA holders.
Ps. Just went long at a tad over 127. Like i said think this will range trade from mid 120s to mid 130s. I'm just annoyed I didn't go long at the end of the retracement. Falling gas prices at the time put me off.
Tep, I not a shorter, my weakness is that I hate shorting. My portfolio is always long, I was looking to buy at 142 but realised that a head and shoulders had formed. I don't do technicals but one thing I have learned is that I never ignore a head and shoulders or inverse head a shoulders pattern. If you google it it's one of the most reliable indicators. I got out of my short for small beer. Like I said in an earlier post the retracement from the head and shoulders is complete so this share can now stabilise and hopefully move up. Investing / trading is about timing an entry. I have longed this share many times over the past 2 years and shorted it once for small beer. I wish everyone who longs far more luck, than those who short.
No surprise I could tell you were shorter. Most have the usual signs of uninformed negative sentiment ignoring value even if it smacked them in the face. For example "Having sold their oil portfolio it makes it even less attractive. " And that is just more nonsense I'm afraid to mention. CNA have already outlined their strategy on this point in line with an industry trend (SSE are doing the same) to move to greener energy upstream.
"In line with our strategy to decarbonise the portfolio and reduce our exposure to oil and gas production, we have committed not to explore for new hydrocarbon reserves, instead focusing on ensuring we can fund our decommissioning liabilities while pursuing opportunities to leverage existing infrastructure to promo energy security and help the UK on its path to net zero."
But they continue to hold oil in storage and they reported 45M barrels of stock during 2023 annual report. If you want to trade oil my advice would be trade Shell/BP like I currently doing quite well on also.
All the best with your cash holding and I hope you've beaten the inflation target for the financial year plus some. Its been a great interaction as it has helped me to reinforce my view of value at these levels for a long term investment.
Tep, not in CNA at the moment. My last play was a short when I saw the head and shoulders. As far as a takeover I can't see it. SSE sold its retail book as little value long term. Assets are what companies value and customers who can leave at any moment are not that appealing. Having sold their oil portfolio it makes it even less attractive. But never say never as a big stack of cash is a pleasing thing to own.
My CNA investment has already paid for itself and am happy to continue to hold and take the income for the time being. Good luck on your short term play though I hope you achieve what you are after.
2023 was a bumper year and as stated in the report wrt future earnings "We expect to deliver around £800m of sustainable adjusted operating profit on average each year from Retail and Optimisation by 2026, underpinned by continuous improvement in operational performance which will drive customer retention and growth. We also expect to deliver further strong cash flows from Infrastructure over the medium-term."
This ties in with the broker forecast that I've seen for expected eps 2024E and 2025E but notably excludes the buybacks. Even at today's share price the p/e would be roughly 7x and far short of the 30x SSE trade at today. But we'll learn more during half year results as to whether they revise 2024E earnings and increase in dividend progressing to the 2x cover (currently it is 4x) as promised. Also they didn't ruled out further capital returns via buybacks. To me this is key to a full share price recovery. Its not that long ago Centrica were a recovery play and shareholders lost faith due to expected earnings consistency and the "Conn" man at the helm.
On your "Multiples" point I think I answered that already. But to add do you think if someone was sniffing to buy CNA they would pay todays price?
Tep, if you don't mind me asking what sp are you looking for? I'm happy for a mind your own business reply if that suits.
I don't pay for anyone's advice. Centrica past earnings are indeed large compared to mcap, but future earnings, especially 2025 will be far lower driving a multiple of 8 or 9. Multiples are never that large unless massive growth is presumed, with CNA, it's the opposite. Just look at multiples for UK banks.
When SSE traded at 1600p which (30x eps reported in 2023) RBC cut SSE's share price from 2,050p to 1,950p and reiterated its "outperform" (August 2023). A 20% uplift on today's SSE share price. Yet CNA which trades at 2x eps reported in 2023 results has been downgraded to a "perform" and strangely upgraded their share price recommendation by only 3%. I am merely pointing out the 'R'oyal 'B'rokerage of 'C'lowns don't know their a*se from their elbow. I hope you don't pay for their advice Delta.
5p shift is small beer in terms of sentiment. I see this ranging trading for now. Maybe 125 to 135. Gas prices usually trade higher in summer as traders minds are focused on the upcoming winter so that might help support the sp. Unless a transformational deal, takeover (unlikely) or major rebound in energy prices occur then it could break out. It's certainly not worth playing the short side but upside is for now limited.
"RBC cuts Centrica to 'sector perform' (outperform) - price target 145 (140) pence"
So the clowns downgrade their view but upgrade share price estimation.
MM-pigs are @ it again, pinning the SP to the floor. More than 200 Auto-Trade before 8.15am
Todays magical AT-algorithm-No. = 384, more than 30 before 8.30am....?
Watch & wait
I agree energy sourcing is a transitional play. I quite liked your tea leaves on the share price predictions
I've seen it too many times before. They bring the share price down intentionally so share holders will bite the hands off any bidder proposing a miserly undervalued offer.
Fridays daily mail states several uk firms are takeover targets including centrica. I live in hope this is true.
Tep, the problem is where to invest. Oil will probably remain strong as its a global market. Power prices in the UK will come under pressure from increasing renewable plus power storage plays. Many new evs with feature ability to reverse power you home. Power generation used to have a high mix of gas fired stations. These requiremment are dwindling so gas demand is reducing. So no point investing in gas assets. UK gas storage makes money from the summer winter spread. That has now collapsed back to where it was when CNA said is was uneconomic to run. For sure they may invest heavily in hydrogen but that right now is a medium to long term play. The good news for the bulls is that the retracement from the head and shoulders is complete. So it should range trade for a while. Ps retails customers are a pain, little margin and huge balancing risks, especially with a price cap mechanism.
I have so many questions - Isnt their upstream strategy aligned with industry and political goals to move to a greener agenda? Arent they investing 800M in in this area? "Fossil fuels" are here for the foreseeable future and that outlook wont change short term since greener energy will take time, money and a change of customer attitudes. So why investing in gas storage (when energy security is a political topic) is not a good bet? When you talk of growing the business shouldn't that focus be on numbers of retail customers are sustainable? Energy provided by top 6 suppliers is 70% and of that market British gas have the lion share of 20%. Most end customers are still focussed on price and consistency of energy supply not how it is sourced.
The problem for CNA is growing the business. The sale of Direct energy was a good call as that was undervalued by city analysts. The sale of oil assets will probably end up being a mistake. It's difficult for CNA executives to get their head round macros and not focus on upstream UK gas and european green power. Fundamentals suggest gas and power assets are not a good bet, just got lucky short term with geo political stuff. Plus £100ms invested in reopening rough is going to be wasted money.