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Ddd , in reference to tax , check out the last asset sale Cnr carried out and royal rd 50% asset sale to Hemco, 15% tax to nica.
E l, mc has said it may eventually turn into takeover . Cnr can approach as many companies as it likes but would involve the takeover commission which incurs much higher costs. An asset sale won’t. Therefore if it reverts to a takeover it will then still be subject to takeover commission , therefore, what would be the point of avoiding the takeover commission if it is a takeover in all but name. That makes no sense. It is not an asset sale in name only sorry. It may turn into full takeover. Personally the sooner it is confirmed the better. the market and investors like transparency.
We don't actually know how it's going to manifest itself. All my SP numbers are equivalent value terms, as they always have been. I don't particularly believe it will end up either as an Nic asset sale (the assets are the subsidiaries), or as a full takeout.
I've no better idea than anyone else on how many NDAs are signed, so I'll just believe what the news releases tell me, via X or via RNS.
I went through loads of scenarios months ago but ended up deciding it was pointless in spending further effort without some idea of the deal structure. What I do know is that there is a massive loan from the parent company to the NIC subsidiaries which will need repaying before worrying about tax.
It’s nailed on! Sunjammer, the talking bears and chat LGBTQ told me.
Since we are having wild guesses I’d say 42p has to be the answer right? and an RNS on Monday
It is an asset sale in name only. MC alluded to this in a recent webinar. Rules and regulations apparently restrict the number of parties one can approach for a full company sale. It seems no such restrictions apply for an "asset sale". MC said the market would be updated if the asset sale scenario changed to a company sale, although my guess is that all of the information will come out in a single RNS. The big one!
Ddd, it is an asset sale currently. The aquiring company will make an offer for the assets. They are not buying our shares! What is the offer price? Then Cnr return cash to us minus all allied costs including mc new bonus . How many shares will there be at that point?
Imv, the sooner there are less than 6 ndas the better and hopefully a full takeover as the plan. Then it is easier to get a rough valuation. Currently hard to see wood for trees which imv is holding the sp back.
Forget the sp, what is the likely bid?? If you see $150 m or$200 m ?? Again how many shares ? Tax? Mc bonus other expenses ?
Nero, I think you are correct, this will be sold for whatever can be had. Mellon has lowered his get out considerably with 15 p giveaway and mc has a new bonus that doesn’t involve£1 anymore. If an offer equating to 40 p is the best offer that will be put forward for vote. Mellon will have about a quarter of the votes in his hands .
Calibre took just over 3 months from deal announcement til completion so should expect similar. So may just about complete this yr if a binder is nailed in the next month.
Perhaps he means a deal agreed this year? If it completes as an asset sale obviously longer and more question marks over the ammount returned.
I don't think there will be a lot of wriggle room on price; perhaps other aspects but not so much on price. In other words if bids come in around 45p I doubt CNR will be able to talk it up to 60p; 48p or 50p, perhaps. Whoever gets the first bid in will likely set the ballpark for others. If they come in at 45p or 50p, I think we can forge 70p or 80p.
On the other hand I doubt Condor would take 40p very seriously given what they have invested, both in time and money. Indeed, in their shoes, I would regard 40p submissions as time wasters. I keep coming back to around 60p - 65p. I've rationalised it in terms of resource values and it pretty much sits in the middle of the wildly pessimistic (40p and below) and wildly optimistic (80p and above), though neither scenarios are impossible. Higher prices are likely with companies who are very keen on replenishing reserves, and there are more than a few these days.
Condors current market cap is totally meaningless when you can shift it by millions through the purchase or sale of a couple of hundred thousand pounds worth of buys or sells. Anyone bidding will recognise that their bid will need to be justified on the basis of a return on investment, not on whether they can buy close to current market value (which will be impossible once word of bids gets out).
I doubt we will get valuations in the 80p - 100p range but I can't totally rule it out. I've no idea what the individual circumstances of bidders are. They may have agendas and future pricing scenarios that make that range viable.
IMO I can't see a "no deal" scenario arising. We have had (at least) three site visits with each site visit team signing off on the assets and recommending to proceed. MC has a weekly call with Hannam & Partners after which he briefs the other directors, so is pretty much running the sales process as much as H&P.
No deal IMO means Condor MUST get financing quick sharp for the mine build or more than likely will lose the permits as the gov want the mine built asap, so there will be a deal as there are serious parties involved in the process that have done their DD. I don't believe either JM or MC have the stomach to go for mine build, I think JM especially wants to cash out here so they will take the best deal they can get. I expect the amount of time being taken is due to ongoing negotiations between MC/H&P and the various interest parties, but that's just a guess on my part.
I won't make a prediction re price as I don't believe the SP has ever really reflected the value here, and the assets will sell for the current fair market price - and we will find out what that is once the sales process concludes in due course.
If MC is to be believed, he has been very confident that the sales process would be concluded this year (which makes me think that is the H&P timeline), so we should be seeing binding offers appearing in the next few months. I can only hope that this Christmas will finally be a happy one for Condorians, we shall see!
I wonder what the record is between announcing a sale and finally concluding it's time to knock it on the head. I'm guessing the investment bank conducting the sale process must be getting peed off since they vast majority of their earnings from this is conditional on a sale.
Seriously though tweeting stuff rather than announcing formally on an RNS is out of order...
Yes please Johngle ;-)
Broom, I think the term is fluffing.
Ddd, fair post. Again out of interest to get 60-65 p what do you expect the offer to be and how much expenses and shares ? What are your thoughts on 15% tax? To get 60 p I reckon that would mean an offer around £200 m and I just can’t see it. I hold 4 uk producers and they are all around £100 m. I would love to turn my 22 p shares into 65 p but cannot see how it can happen but will be extatic if it should come to pass. 80-£1 is just fantasy land imv.
Have had a little add this morning tho.
Dictum - I’d agree with your ranges but all this tweet nonsense is only a distraction and I’m not sure it should be done during a deal but I’ll wait on the old RNS
80p is my guess
A late financials RNS and an opaque Xweet does make it a more interesting Tuesday than usual. If you are an optimist you take the view that it means a deal is in the bag and that's why the financials are being delayed - so that mega news can be released at the same time.
On the other hand we have just had a long weekend and the financials are only slightly delayed vs. last year. Also, the bag and handshake might just mean that we should just wait a bit longer for a deal to arrive and an agreement to be made i.e. just wait for updates on progress. It could be just to allay the general frustration that we all now have.
It's a coin toss on what the situation actually is. It will keep me keeping an eye on Condor's feed for the next week or two, but I certainly haven't concluded that we are there yet.
In the meantime I've seen all sorts of estimates on what the share value equivalent of an asset sale might be. My take is that we are currently trading below balance sheet NAV and that 35p - 45p would be a miserable return on time, money and effort. 60 - 65p is still my best estimate with 80p - 100p pretty optimistic, but not completely out of the ball park.
It will be hard not to say something price affecting when the financials are released, even without confirmation of a bid (or deal), so this week could be pretty volatile on the share price. However, given the slow trading we might have to wait a bit longer yet. The market doesn't seem to have sniffed much out yet.
Stay tuned folks!
Frenchie, just out of interest,what would be the offer made that would return 60 p to holders in your view?
Surprised this hasn't risen strongly today on the back of Onion's emojis. Either he is taking the blinking diss or news has to be close!! Fingers crossed we get out of this mess with a profit. GLA
Pdp, I think rns should be released pdq if a binding offer received. Not sure about regulations regarding imojies tbh .
Seems quite leading, but not put a rovket under us yet.
£0.60p would feel like a lottery win Frenchie!
Are imojies legally binding ?? 😂
Yeah, cheers Seingred, break even would feel like a victory!
12 Concessions, 3 permitted pits, potential for more on the upside; I’m going for 60p minimum. I know Seingred won’t attribute any value to future potential, but the fact there are still a number of interested parties, one will make an offer that will include a premium.
Connect, only my guess and hope for more but that’s my guess but as I say anyone can vote against an offer recommended by bod but I think it would be pretty futile, and unwise. As I have said before, it is better to be pleasantly surprised than unpleasantly. Good luck and hope you do manage to break even .
I'm thinking 40p