The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
This is truly a miserable state of affairs. At least they had the 'soon' articles to tide us over in April, May, and June... now it's the reality... fact is even the local sales can in no way be relied on.
This really has gone worst case scenario direction.
Long gone June 9th 2022.
Correct banter…. any of the trucks which dare to fill with oil are either subject to Erdogan or Bar-z control - so the famillies win as usual.
As if buying the oil at a knockdown $30/bbl then trucking it out to sell it for at least double that wasn’t enough !
Question is - how will they engineering things so they can avoid paying us anything this time round too ?
Watch and learn……
Correction: persuaded not peuaded
Could be a long shot. But, if a long-term agreement is made between the Kerbala refinery and the KRG to buy Shaikan crude at a fair price, with the conscent of SOMO, then the pipeline issue becomes immaterial!
The Kerbala Province local government is powerfull enough, I think, to lobby the FGI to approve such an agreement. They have very influential politicians such as Maliki who could be peuaded with the idea if presented with a big enough tin of biscuits! And they may have worked before to push through the Kerbala Airport as well as the Kerbala Refinery projects!🙃
Have I let my imagination run too wild? 😵💫
Best regards ValueS
Perhaps.but divide and conquer might not work if the oil companies are run by men who.have integrity and worked themselves into those positions and if they are not.naive enough to fall for such strategies. I think the CEOs of all the oil companies know what the KRG are like and should not let those corrupt tactics get the better of them.
...nice Bon mot!
What about "...divide or concur"?
How about, “ How strong an alliance is APIKUR, is it open to a divide and conquer strategy?, for that last bit? :)
The pipeline will open or remain closed.
The T&Cs under which the IOCs are prepared to export will either be met or they won’t.
Four combinations but not necessarily 25% probability attached to each :)
Pipeline closed and T&Cs not agreed, outcome is no exports.
Pipeline closed but T&Cs agreed, outcome is no exports.
Pipeline open but T&Cs not agreed, outcome is no exports according to that latest APIKUR statement.
Pipeline open and T&Cs agreed, outcome is exports restart.
So whilst opening the pipeline is a necessary condition for exports to restart, it is not sufficient, the APIKUR T&Cs must be met as well.
Who would benefit politically from the opening of the pipeline knowing there would be no exports, by blocking any move to accept those T&Cs?
Have APIKUR drawn up a list of red lines, if the KRG or FGI cross any one of them it’s an automatic response - arbitration?!
If the pipeline does open and the IOCs refuse to produce for export, will the FGI play the illegal card and instruct local buyers to stop trading with them?
How strong an alliance is APIKUR, is it open to a divide and concur strategy?
Oil is 80% of the Kurdistan economy so this pipeline has to reopen. APIKUR also need guarantees they.will get paid so this could be worth the wait.
If my memory serves me correct before the pipeline was open and we were trucking we were using a company, Petrotrans? that was owned by one of Erdogans sons or a close relative. I wonder are they involved again. Selling locally will just be filling the pockets of the local gangsters who buy it from us cheap then sell it on for a huge mark up. I would love to see the pipeline open up soon but keeping it this way probably helps the locals siphon more money for themselves.
Hi Rogthegamer,
They have come a long way already, just need to go a bit further and once everyone starts to see the benefits they will never look back. They are indeed fortunate to have such decent reserves of crude oil. Many countries in the world in the same positions of development would love just a tenth of what Iraq has. However they do know they have to sell the oil, so I dont think we will wait that long because all sides have made their positions clear, just need a bit of flexibility and it could be flowing by next week.
Belgrano. Sensible for sure, if good honest people with sense and decency ruled the World the ordinary people would certainly benefit. Sadly, and as we all know, Iraq, while vastly improved by comparison with a troubled past, remains one of those countries where those in power have personal / religious / tribal /and or financial agendas that they prioritise above the best interests of their own people, least if all foreign companies.
Fortunately they need foreign money / expertise/ weapons and we can only hope that pragmatism wins the day.
Will gkp see a pound again ?? Pipeline not opening this year thats obvious now ..
I can see 60p now as the market will punish us now .
Even at 40kbopd locally this will still carry on dropping.
The BOD mentioning refinancing was a total negative to gkp situation.
I accually think the BOD want this as low as possible so some predator can pick gkp up for pennies with employment guaranteed in the company with huge share options. I'm seeing it playing out like that now.
Cut and run is becoming a reality for me now .
Lost loads but another lesson learnt don't invest ME or any African country
Hi Armasmaximillian,
I completely disagree with your comments that "the Western idea that Iraq has lost billions is ridiculous".
However this is from a factual western standpoint. Agree the oil is still in the ground so still has value, however we must agree that alternative energy is starting to make oil not so essential, and that with the huge reserves that Iraq has it will take many , many years to extract it all.
Take other successful Arab nations who are selling plenty of oil, but used it to massively improve the lives and living conditions of their populations, while investing a good chunk of that income to insure future prosperity for its people. To build top notch modern cities with all the associated transport, communication and medical requirements takes many years indeed, along with proper jobs not quango ones. Time is not on their side, they needed to start that process yesterday. I've stayed in many Arab cities and the facilities and service are indeed superb.
Now compare that right now with what you are saying ..The oil is in the ground, well they cant eat oil, oil in the ground is no good if you are unemployed , children are starving and require ongoing medical care and treatment.
Also no money to pay the rent, and suffering in torrid 50 degree heat. Indeed a nightmare that is transformable.
Clearly when you consider this your comments against my views I doubt you will still agree with what you published.
However to enjoy the full benefits of society, with housing, medical care jobs etc, you have to treat the oil companies right and give them due dollar as per contracts, never try to swindle them or water down agreements and pay 100% on time. This way other companies will look in and see how they are being treated and also want in invest in Iraq and Kurdistan.
Roxi, maybe he needed the loo?
This Western idea in media that 'Iraq has lost billions' is ridiculous. How? The oil is in the ground. They can sell it for 200 dollars in a few years.
WE have lost. The Companies and the system behind them loses.
Iraq have gained. They don't want us taking their oil from the ground. They'd much rather do that themselves.
"When the greed and politics are sorted its back over £2 ......."
I really hope so, I am long and maybe I will even increase my positions. But for me it is getting harder and harder to imagine that the IOC's will be fully paid. I really doubt that - even if the pipeline reopens - Bagdad will fully cover the expenses, so this means that that it is about the Kurd's ability and willingness to honor the contracts. (In my understanding, without Kurdish support, there will be no national oil&gas law so they can hardly attack the legality of the PSC's... but on the other hand they can keep back the cost recoveries)
Its staggering to believe that the idiots that run Erbil and Baghdad, have lost multiples of what would cost them to settle, while allowing large amounts of its population to become unemployed through their own inability to settle the oil export dispute.
Most of them have not earnt their positions, but been given it through bribery and family connections. They are not loosing money and still the first to be paid handsomely.
Stunning amount and percentage of the population "work for the government", so clearly do created useless jobs and which I expect is being paid for minimal contribution.
When it comes to bickering, extortion, barefaced bribery, breaking of agreements, and failing to pay dues and money owed these ministers are outstanding in performances.
Do they really wonder why what could be one of the richest nations on earth per capita is one of the poorest.
I expect many are making quite a few bob right now trucking our crude to Turkey. No one has said its not happening, just that the pipeline isn't open.
Gkp is an investment ......decades of oil in the ground , all the infrastructure required to get it out of the ground and sold , no debt and solid management ...... When the greed and politics are sorted its back over £2 .......
IC have stuck with Buy rating. Acknowledge risk but cash flow has been stabilised while wait for pipeline opening.
Interestingly, the body language of John, was very telling in my opinion, he looked very uncomfortable during the interview,
not the John we are used to?, A worried man??, i honk we have a few tough weeks ahead,
Batten down the hatches!!!!!, it could get choppy!!!!
Markets have been hearing exports were going to start months ago. Price was 170p and now low 90s. If they don’t get this export starting then the shares will work their way towards 50p
So ........ the sp is going to 50p ......and exports are going to restart .. ... What's not to like ?? Buy
Something needs to change here fast otherwise the shares will be revisiting 50p.
Won’t happen overnight but they will head that way unless exports restart
Those production figures you are quoting are not what was said in the presentation. The question asked was in relation to time frames to get back to prior rates inferring if the pipeline opened and at no point has anything been said about significant increases in local sales. In fact the sales were referred to as being erratic .
The only comment was made regarding the physical limitations on road tanker usage with a max of c40bopd being possible if working 24 hours.
Hopefully sales increase but don't expect there to be much said about it unless there is a significant guaranteed increase.