Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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Cuban_Cigar
yes... a future is definitely there for the taking ....and if there is a huge number of new shares and maybe a consolidation afterwards ( if) , with new debt linked to guarantees, then it is indeed a new beginning .... set sale in a new refurbished ship, as it were ( new shareholders owning the company, to the detriment of many previous shareholders)....although current shareholders may well now have the shares in their pockets at these low prices, having sold out previously...
No it won't. Just alot of over-reacting assisted by the LSE FUD brigade (Usual Suspects) and in-part to PFC Investor relations team. Easy enough to do with the ratio of PI's. Year end results should give SP some more clarity, and there is no option to buy/sell until they have been delivered. Could go either way. Between now and then, FUD brigade here to do their thing.
Pokerchips - Another way to look at the total revenue between now and till Q4/26 is taking the combined revenue of 17, 18 and 19 which was $17.7B then knock off 30% to give some safety margin => $12B. As I wrote, PFC did OK till SFO case then Covid. If they manage sort out the financial mess by end of Oct 24 then there is a strong possibility they will survive and flourish.
Feel at a loose end without the stress of PFC fireworks in my life, could be a long month!
There's potentially a - very - good business here going forward.. hence this process of saving/rebasing pfc.l.
With a few years patience from here and some half decently timed averaging down by me during that time, I see a reasonably good chance that my equity BET here will, in the round, be at least an OK bet in the end... and a decent chance it will turn out a good bet in the end.. and a small chance it will turn out to be a great bet in the end (eg takeover/merger or serious turnaround to a profitable / heathy debt positioned independent business )
Cuban_Cigar
OK that is fair enough .... I personally am a bit conservative on the $8B in terms of margins, when taking into consideration sub-contracting within those projects , so I see $8b more as a headline figure,myself
Your 14% bid pipeline conversion is certainly not over expecting....BUT it may not be off $44b...remember it is a "pipeline" which doesn't mean they will actually bid for everything within this "total pipeline" , maybe they will, but not necessarily ... some may prove not in their commercial best interest, which happens , for various reasons
" a total pipeline scheduled for award in the 16-months to December 2024 of approximately US$44 billion"
ATB
Most likely a takeover or heavy dillution?
Pokerchips $8B backlog + 14% of $44B bid pipeline till Dec 24 and the rest till 26 => Total revenue of $12B to Q4/26 is reasonable, IMHO.
Also PFC is a major supplier of these engineering services - their customers want price competition - take out PFC and it could cost the market easily as much or more in reduced competition and margin / cost increases from Wood / Haliburton etc. IF i was buying in large multi million contracts i would like some price competition.
It pays to keep them in the game. Thanks Blue
" based on the forecast total revenue (till Q4/26) of $12B and a profit margin of 10% "
with Tennet, they are sub-contracting certain parts, of their part of the project....so..I personally think it would be extremely unlikely to end up with such high revenues themselves or a margin as high as that ...there also needs to be strict costs control limitations built into the contract in order to preserve margin
Glad they've finally been forced to confront the issue properly, presumably the auditors won't sign it off as a going concern until the liquidity is sorted out. Hopefully for those of us still holding there will be a quick resolution that allows the company to move forward on a sound footing.
Eurofil, GKP did a D4E in 2016 but their current shareholders at that time lost 95% through dilution.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2016/07/14/shares/news-and-analysis/gulf-keystone-shareholders-lose-their-shirt-as-bondholders-hoover-up-equity-zSNJbgsvvUjjKQGQpY2w8O/article.html
He does not understand bonds by the looks of it so there is no point in arguing with him.If anyone wanted to take a position he/she should have waited until refinancing.
Gulf keystone did a similar raise D4E in 2016, it worked out for them and I’m confident it will work out fine here, please check below history:-
13 October 2016
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone", "GKP", or "the Company")
US$250,000,000 13.0 per cent. Guaranteed Notes due 2017 (ISINs: Regulation S XS1056559245, Rule 144A XS1056559088) (the "Guaranteed Notes")
and
US$325,000,000 6.25 per cent. Convertible Bonds due 2017 (ISIN: XS0841237497, Common Code: 084123749) (the "Convertible Bonds")
Completion of Balance Sheet Restructuring
Gulf Keystone is pleased to announce that the Scheme of Arrangement (the "Scheme") in connection with the Balance Sheet Restructuring Transaction (the "Restructuring") announced on 14 July 2016 became effective today. The expected settlement date for the Scheme is 14 October 2016
Restructuring
The Restructuring involves the implementation of a new capital structure to materially strengthen the Company's balance sheet with a significant debt reduction from over US$600 million to US$100 million through the conversion of over US$500 million of existing debt into equity of the Company by way of the Scheme.
IG
You truly are completely clueless. Only six weeks ago you were claiming that PFC a raging buy, now you are idiotically claiming that the senior debt is worthless.
Are you incapable of understanding that the debt holders will simply take control of the existing business. They are the only debt. They will pump in $300m of cash so combined with D4E (and dramatically reduced finance costs) it could be a great business.
Just look at the numbers as they do not lie !
17 Revenue $6.4B, Gross margin $785M, EBIT : S104M
18 Revenue $5.8B, Gross margin $718M, EBIT : $159M
19 Revenue $5.5B, Gross margin $353M, EBIT : $220M
20 Revenue $5.5B, Gross margin $279M, EBIT : -$142M
21 Revenue $3B, Gross margin $130M , EBIT : - $196M
22 Revenue $2.7B, Gross margin $-76M, EBIT : - $217M
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/POFCY/petrofac/financial-statements.
Before SFO case and Covid (which caused contract cancellations and business interruption. These , in turn, resulted in revenue collapse and additional costs) , PFC did reasonable well and even Halliburton was prepared to pay £25/ share for it in 2012
The lenders must have seen and examined latest PFC business plan, provisional Q1/24 trading status and cashflow forecast till Q4/26, and comfortable with the progress of non core asset sale, BEFORE offering to provide $300million (£239million) in fresh credit and to keep PFC going and allowing PFC to miss bond coupon payment, otherwise they would pull the plug by now.
If PFC BOD can convince the lenders with strong proof that the newly won and future contracts have good margins (i.e. 10%+) as before 2019, I strongly believe D4E dilution ratio will not be so bad as the people have predicted (as the major shareholders will fight hard not to let the bondholders or any predator have the company on the cheap) and PFC should be mostly debt free by Q4/26, based on the forecast total revenue (till Q4/26) of $12B and a profit margin of 10%).
Shahz. I'm in agreement, a high PI contingent will defo be a red flag for me moving forward! PFC was a basket case a few years ago with the SFO investigation, it is here that PIs took the majority holding (especially with O&G out of favour for instititutes). Somehow the company has turned it around with the Tennet contract. If the MEED report on Algeria £1bill contract true then the company really is on a forward track. The investment industry now wants to take PFC from the PI and that is what this whole play is. It's going to need a left field solution. COME ON ASFARI!!!!
Do you not like pasta?
Ivor, don't disrespect my Comrade Baron. This is your last warning.
I see no possibility of a takeover until there is a clear picture. One will only buy this if they have clear idea of what they are buying. PFC is not transparent about results so far. They clearly knew results were not coming but instead of being transparent they kept it hiding until 29th. My view is simple they are doing it to stop a potential bid. If there was a bid, majority until a few weeks ago were PIs. Not sure how much ownership has shifted recently.
They are closing all options.
At the end it could be
1. full control by some
2.parts given to some
Bondholders/debtholders/shareholders (clearly All are losers as of now )
One lesson. Be careful on companies where PIs are in majority
Asfari is still our main weapon in finding a way out. That and ME connections.
His shares have lost on £100million in the last two years at current market price. I repeat £100million.
Thus there is huge incentive to find a way to salvage share price from inside the BOD.
I still look at tullow who managed to secure $2b in debt in a huge restructuring.
A third of that from a ME guardian angel would see PFC moving forward.
The SP decline has been (justifiably?) amplified by the shorts, the BOD need to step up now and the pressure for the performance guarantees will help them focus hopefully and put us in a better place moving forward. That said our chair Medori has been on the board since 2012 and look what has happened during his tenure. He needs to fall on his sword as soon as things are crystallised.
Kept my money in.
Ivor
There is always nonsense posted on chat boards, but there is Lao some genuine thoughts, feelings and information shared.
As for who is in control of Pfc. The BOD have taken as global service provider to the brink of bankruptcy, they have stated they are unable to pay the interest due on the bonds in May. They have however secured money for some performance guarantees which is very interesting. At what cost though, how much equity? Will they dilute to raise the interest payment, delay the interest payment, be forced into administration etc,etc.
Whilst the later is in nobody’s interest apart from shorts, it is a possibility.
We should find out tonight how many shorts bailed and that may shed light on their expectations.
This has been too much of a gamble recently, to often in these situations, the worst scenario materializes.
Good luck to the brave who held.
Bonds have already lost 85% value, so at the mintue market believes that bondholders wont get their money back.However if fresh money is injected and buisness improve than probability of them getting their money back increases.However bonds tell that equity is worthless.
Some are ramping the bonds. Even suggesting that the additional credit will be secured with some sort of super seniority. Absolute nonsense. There is no security worth a carrot as it has all been pledged already. The bonds will not increase by three or four times. Far more likely they will lose 90-100%. The only real hope for the junk bond holders is time or a takeover. Two or three years of profitable trading and maybe you recover 20 or 30%.
DO NOT BUY BONDS THEY ARE JUNK!!!
#positive restructuring" such a thing does not exist I am afraid.It is clear from last update that shareholders would lose a big percentage of their investment.We will find out soon how big it is.