The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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‘Labour only made clear their policy on Feb 9’
Really would like an edit button.
Labour only made clear their policy of on Feb 9? Though they had been making all sorts of noises for quite sometime before then.
Thank you for your reply. I’ll buy you a good meal when share price gets to £6.99. Promise.
Yes and yes.
I can only imagine that the sums have been done by the clever back-room nerds who do the calculations and the results on the abacus are that it’s still profitable even with their currently worst estimate of what Millibrain and the Smelly Socks Lot might throw at oil companies from some lunatic tax-grabbing strategy.
Otherwise, why 1. Why would Serica have completed the farmin, with associated, non-negligible cost?
And 2. Same question really, why wouldn’t the JV just shut down the project and stop spending money if today they do not see it as being profitable?
The economics of a re-purposed, nearly new FPSO, in which NEO had an interest, together with shallow water and non-exorbitant development costs must (?) result in a reasonable return for inventors, despite desperate politicians, of all political hues, rummaging around in the depths of their fiscal resources to find something they can tax to pay for the ever-increasing benefits bill in poor old ‘Broken Broken’.
I remain mildly optimistic for this languishing stock.
Expecting or hoping for some encouraging news-flow in the near-future.
I might cut down my earlier forecast of £34 (or was it £43? Dick, I hope you can remind me) but I do see the broker consensus of £7 +/- as being rather pessimistic; they have to ‘temper’ their forecasts otherwise. 2 quid to 7 may not seem outrageous but 2 quid to what I calculate now to be £17 ( calculations can be provided on a cigarette packet if doubted) might, too easily, be doubted and hence lose any credibility.
Just wait.
The greedy politicians haven’t yet managed to kill The Greta Burkha Area and, as dim as he appears to be, I don’t thinks Millibrain will want, or be allowed by the unions, to.
Got to dash, that Mark X Jag is back. Needs his tyre pressures checked…
Just had this old geezer in in his Mark 10 Jag. 90 liters to fill her up.
Yes Einstein, what’s the your view on everything? Will Neo proceed with the development as planned? Will it still be viable if labour removes the tax relief? Not just me, a lot of us would like to hear your views. This board needs some good inputs as no one seems to be interested in posting.
Who?
I wouldn't describe his salary as necessarily luxurious, but he is certainly paid a lot more than I think he is worth to this company. (I'm not saying he should be criticized for leading the company down this blind alley, since it was done honestly and well-intention, but I don't see any point in continuing to pay him much more than he is worth to lead a company he appears, from the outside looking in, to be completely out of his depth at running.) But I fully respect, Einbert, that you will have a more informed view from your position on your cousin's petrol station forecourt.
Et tu AlbertEinstein?
We may need to wait until next year to see the 2024 accounts before we can see how much Benitez has received in bonus, over and above his already luxurious salary?
I don't agree with that mean-spirited assessment.
JOG is selling off like many others because of political atmosphere. And I don't believe it's selling off because anything announced will obstruct the project, and there is still huge profits to me made compared to the current SP.
It's selling off because people are anticipating it being sold off as part of an out of favour sector. It's a self-reinforcing cycle that can only abate once clarity on NS oil and gas comes, or until first oil makes the market cap impossible (which it would do if the company buys back or does huge dividends).
I just wish I was looking at the stock for the first time this weekend... I hope I'd have the courage to buy it in spades...
Who ever would have thought it! It'll be interesting, to say the very least, to see the accounts in a few months so that we can see how much Benitz has paid himself in bonuses for delivering this exception "shareholder value"! Apparently he also believes himself to be underpaid - couldn't make it up really!
Received by email reiterating the great undervalued state of the shares.
Agree Cyril.
Onthe6 - I don't know for sure but Neo and Serica are fully aware of the situation, yet are pulling WI off site, have a fully staffed project team, are pedalling like crazy to get this over the line. If they cancel, what do they do with half an FPSO, with no plan? The FPSO will be bought, and maybe much capex before investment allowance is withdrawn, (if it even does get withdrawn). 3% extra doesn't stop the project. And a u turn on EPL in a couple of years is massive upside.
Labour will back-pedal. Milliband will be appointed minister for bacon sandwiches. In the campaigning phase Labour will have to explain their policy in detail to workers in Aberdeen and elsewhere in the O&G industry. Labour want Scotland back. The unions will not go along with rapidly dismantling the industry, not that I'm saying they are obdurate mind. Once in actual danger of having to face forming a government Labour's economic advisors will draw a Laffer curve on a flip chart and explain that we are already on the down slope. The ease with which existing NS players can refocus their resources on Norwegian waters will be explained.
The Wood Mackenzie report discussed in the Telegraph article alsoppc posted on 28th Feb gets to the nub of the issue for Labour.
"Accelerated decommissioning will reduce tax receipts from foregone production and bring forward tax relief for the decommissioning costs. A double blow for the exchequer."
Also "Another significant risk is the potential for operators to halt investment on producing assets."
Quoting the Chief Exec of Offshore Energies UK, the article says he accused Labour of being unable to “do the maths” around energy taxes.
"It will undermine the very industry, which can and must play a critical role in delivering a homegrown energy transition.”
Now all this is self evident to those of us who have thought it through. Nevertheless Labour will need zillions of our, by then, utterly devalued pounds. Their solution is plain to see. Now the conservatives have set the precedent Labour can pick out any arbitrary industry for a special rate of corporation tax (for that is all the EPL is) . Their obvious, and potentially very lucrative, target will be banking. Perhaps after them defence sector companies or pharma. Sell Lloyds, buy JOG.
Honestly greener what makes you so certain? I hope you’re right.
I agree with you, Greener, about darkest before dawn, but that's about all - if the completion RNSes for the Neo and Serica farmouts (and their respective completions) didn't propel JOG's share price to a higher, better level, then why on earth would you expect that to happen from FPSO information, FEED, etc? As for LIEbour representing zero risk, I'm sorry, but from where I'm standing both they and the CINOs represent enormous risk (and LIEbour especially, since they are talking about removing the investment relief, at which point the 9p in the £ rational for the whole project for both Neo and Serica seems pretty shaky, just looking from the outside in!) I'm certainly glad I lighten up here closer to £2 per share, one of the very few share price mitigations I've ever managed to get right with JOG.
Big sales going through today. 78k x 2 + 64k
Greener you’re seem to be very certain that Neo will proceed with the project no matter what. Did you know or hear something if you don’t mind me asking? Thanks..
The pattern is euphoria on news, followed by slow trending down and misery. Meanwhile milestones are hit, and I believe a Lab gov presents zero risk to project go-ahead and also plenty potential for a quiet U-turn by 1st oil as NS jobs crater and unions apply pressure. But currently everyone miserable and hence crappy SP.
All sorts of news flow can come between now and FID, regarding the FPSO, contracts sorted, FEED progression, blah blah.
Trend line is headjng steadily up. At FID we'll be bid-ready, and also 18 months from first oil.
Darkest before dawn etc
Disappointing MPO818 but this has been the pattern after every 'milestone' so far, but the past is no indicator to the future in a situation like JOG.
And its not only been pundits who have said £6/7 is a fair value SP, but more significantly the JOG CEO has publicly said it.
The fair value price targets published by Zeus, WHIreland, Cavendish and even the guy from the Investors Chronicle are looking miles away. Even Jim has gone off to buy houses, all very disappointing from a LTH point of view.
Could we be that lucky!?!?
Something needs to perk things up here that's for sure.
This downward drift is starting to get depressing to watch :-(
Https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/waldorf-production-sets-sights-on-uk-north-sea-acquisitions-amid-rising-windfall-taxes they already have a few stakes around the 20% surely at these prices it's only a matter of time before someone like this comes in and swoops up Jog
So Tories to extend Windfall Tax to 2029. But an incoming Labour gov already committed to maintaining that tax for full parliamentary term i.e.2029 - announced a couple of weeks back - so that aspect already reflected in SP
It seems a pretty safe bet the investment relief could be gone by the end of the year when the government changes, unless someone manages to reign milliband in. I do take some comfort in Labour's position on the NS has been known for a while, as much as you can say their usually vacuous policies are known, with Serica only recently finalising their part it should still go ahead even if the investment allowance is removed.