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A half day once more 12.30pm.
Happy New Year All.
Reportable shorts down to .90% again.
This is actually good news for all parties concerned and well worth another read. Pretty well factually correct.
Some points I take from it.
Iraq now knows what it needs to do to resolve issue, tweak some articles in its own law.
It also now knows how much the Kurdistan gov gets from the IOC contracts, would be an advantage for Iraq to get the Kurdish oil exports up to max, then deduct that income from the amount it sends Kurdistan. They will like that.
It says the amount the IOCs get is higher than Iraq but fail to mention the additional risk, higher difficulty of extraction, and lack of infrastructure when projects started. So although it says payments are high they are not unfair.
Also the biggest advantage for the IOC's, comments that Turkey stands to gain a lot due to its investment in the region in companies , pipelines etc. Again this is probably correct, but is again not unfair.
Turkey also knows this, and if Iraq wants a regular water supply in the future it better fast track those legislation tweaks because if they don't its going to be a dry summer indeed in Baghdad. Turkey wont aid them water wise which is a cost to Turkey in loss of hydro power unless they expedite exports PDQ.
At last we have full transparency and a route to export market. Don't know if they can "guarantee payments under contractual terms as a sign of good faith", so crude exports can start much sooner , then make the required legislative rule tweaks in order to rubber stamp those payments to the IOCs.
Sounds like more meetings to me !!
At the end of the day iraq is happy kurdistan isn't producing or making any money .
Even an idiot can see that. I can see another 6 months and nothing happening .
It's getting to the point now just sell up and move on now??
Onwards and downwards today as all I can see is drip down to 110s.
“Ghaleb Muhammad, a former member of the House of Representatives, explained the reasons behind the obstacles to restart exports from the Kurdistan region. ”
https://mycurrencyalerts.com/iraqi-news-understanding-the-reasons-behind-the-delay-in-resumption-of-kurdistan-oil-exports/
Agree Solarfire. I’d say that's why it’s worth holding out for our present contract and hence the stand off, now we’re break even we have a better negotiating position.
The Iraq contracts don't give enough margin or leeway for field development, hence the majors leaving over the years, the infrastructure falling apart and Iraqs output declining.
Yes, we are covering costs for the production side of the business.
GKP are holding out, quite rightly so, because production is only a fraction of the business Capex, not just the cost of maintaining the equipment and Opex. We have much drilling to do when the field eventually gets developed. We know that the Iraq central government needed to have the contracts explained to them, so it would't surprise me that they were completely forgetting that the Shaikan field is subject to a massive development.
Such a lot of wasted time.
I still think sometime yet. Although we're covering costs now so that's a good derisk.
It seems Kurdistan has yielded to Iraq (will accept payments for government) and Kurdistan oil goes to SOMO.
Turkey has given a green light so whats the problem?
The noise from the Iraq government now is “the production sharing contracts are illegal under Iraq law/Constitution”
In reply we saw more IOCs join together and in the recent GKP and Genel presentations they make a point of reiterating they have production sharing contracts and won't pump until they are recognised.
Another stale mate.
The larger IOCs in Iraq have the profit sharing contracts which are far less equitable.
It looks to me if we get a contract like those issued in the 5th bid round we’d lose around 60% of our NPV (The Iraq government would gain that) but i’d like further clarity on the Kurdistan contracts to make sure.
Seriously when do we expect the pipeline to open 2027 ??
More chance nailing diarrhoea to a wall. 2 quid by Christmas 24, if we’re lucky.
Longer it goes on the more I can stash away.
Boom or bust.
"$15 ps and I’m like outa here"
LOL. You're going to be here for a long, long time
" update on December sales at 40k plus"
That would have to be an enormous second half of the month given: "and c.21,900 bopd between 1-11 December". You should do the maths on $30 per barrel in perpetuity. Not pretty. The status quo isn't sustainable and the current stock price expects much, much more. Here's to making some actual progress at some point in 2024...
$15 per share would save my retirement!
Building up for another year of hovering around £1, interminal biscuit meetings to secure family wealth and avoiding personal blame…. $15 ps and I’m like outa here.
We’ve come a long way in recent weeks but Genel set to rerate. We’ve been closely correlated for some time but Genel is now 30% lower. With the directors invested in a big way now I think the time is right to plough in their, make some cash, then reinvest it here again given potential
.
yes my only concern is the iranian influence on the baghdad ministers and those in power. are they looking after the interests of the peoples of iraq as a who or the interests of iran.
their actions point at the latter to date, however they were elected, but it seems the old sunni / ****e hostilities still prevail while trying to keep the public pretence of working together and representing all iraqis.
I must say some year, but on the positive 1.30 odd is a lot better than the .80 we were at.
Fingers crossed the new year surprises with a well time update on December sales at 40k plus, and a solid movement forward. Even 30 dollars a barrel will make us a wealthy bunch, and Iraq know it.
So here's to a Merry Christmas 🤶
External pressure will be applied to the eternally squabbling face savers - to make up the Russian defecit.
The grown-ups will unite and lob a few missiles into Yemeni seaside towns as a warning not to get involved as proxy for Tehran’s retaliations - and taps will open soon …. perhaps.
Could be a good start to the New Year, and we may even crest 1.50 ?
I agree with Andy1022. How convenient there happen to be a pipeline bypassing the whole Suez mess with a capacity for 500k bopd...
Brent futures market doesn't seem too bothered.
Add on another approx 500k/day shortfall from likely rerouting container vessels requiring more bunker fuel due to the Red Sea fun & games and those gaslighting us about the imminent crash in crude prices, are looking like dolts. Long energy. Short bonds.
Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-plans-cut-seaborne-oil-exports-by-100000-200000-bpd-jan-sources-2023-12-22/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20Dec%2022%20(Reuters),with%20export%20plans%20told%20Reuters.
Even bigger than that. Some mergers on the horizon I would imagine. I can assume it hasnt escaped Apikurs attention of such benefits
All about the multi bag here, cash + amounts owed covering most of mcap for starters