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Hi Cowichan - Where continuity of supply is vital, it would make sense to have emergency generator back-up surely. - Generation capacity already exists at Sukari. - If they have dispensed with said capacity it would amount to an extreme act of folly, almost of sabotage. - I take your point about convenience btw. :)
In the title
Question for CEO Horgan ; what if the decision to switch to Egypt's power grid interferes with Sukari plant operations , and thus gold production ? Or would that be perhaps, a convenience ?
Hamza Hendawi - Cairo Apr 17, 2024
Egyptians faced electricity shortages this week after the government resumed daily power cuts in an attempt to save money.
“It’s hard to imagine an end to power cuts, which are only likely to intensify as energy consumption peaks in the summer,” said Riccardo Fabiano, project director for North Africa at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
“The outlook for the summer is quite pessimistic, with a potential intensification in power cuts or other measures to limit consumption.”
The government has been forced to resume the power cuts after facing pressure due to a slump in foreign currency revenue from two of Egypt’s main earners – Suez Canal transit fees and tourism, which have both been affected by the Gaza war and its fallout.
The government also cites a drop in production from its largest offshore natural gas field, Zohra.
The power cuts are described by the government as a small price to pay by Egyptians to save the nation’s precious foreign currency reserves, which are used to import fuel to fire up power stations as well as essential food items and industrial materials.
Last year, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said the move saved the country a total of $300 million a month that his government would have, otherwise, spent on importing fuel for its power stations.
But Egyptians have criticised the return of power cuts. Many Egyptians are also dismayed that they are enduring power cuts in spring, when consumption is moderate compared to July and August.
Others say they had hoped the recent injection into Egypt's coffers of more than $50 billion in investment, aid and loans would have considerably eased the foreign currency crunch that has crippled the economy for close to two years and allowed sufficient fuel imports.
“By God, it’s so unfair to cut power for two hours every day and you [the government] lightly give that the nickname ‘lightening the load’,” wrote Amir Abdel Fetouh on X. “Isn’t it enough that we have to deal with high prices and the hardship citizens endure?”
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2024/04/18/egypt-electricity-power-cuts-summer-hot/
Why so many moaners.
In two months the SP has gone from 90p to knocking on 130 p and likely to rise.Maybe not as quickly but thats ok.
Well seems I got nocked out at about 125 from the drop this morning and its ripped right back up to near the five day MA, Looks like a good shake out and consolidation and it looks like I'll be buying back in tomorrow. :-) hopefully it can push on to 163 and then on to 213 in the coming months up to Q2
As expected, they robbed Peter to pay Paul .
Edit... *Nigh on doubled
I thought that was a decent update but I'm guessing anyone who's nigh on flu led their cash here since last year probably didn't take too kindly to the 250m CAPEX and the higher than guided AISC.
AISC will come down as production is weighted towards H2 and what mine doesn't have CAPEX??
500k ounces clearing 1k is a really easy sum though, will wait to see if we get a further pull back before adding, plenty of time until the next update.
Tornadotony, Hillfog90,
thanks for your lucid posts...
"""we expect production rates to now increase for the balance of the year and reaffirm our 2024 production and cost guidance ranges"""
if this this in good faith, and I don't have reason to doubt it, it is al that really matters now - for me
As in the title:
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Hi Tibbs
Half the gold the mine produces comes from the pit.
The low grades are because material classified as waste turned out actually to be low-grade ore that was nevertheless worth processing.
This was a bonus and a good thing.
The open pit seems to be mining just for the sake of mining , how many times now have we heard they have hit some unexpected low grades!
Why not just be honest and admit that the open pit is to a large extent a waste of money, energy and time!
Reduced their position, would have been just prior to RNS today!
Of course they wouldn't have had any prior knowledge would they?
Another financial reason for my buy back in:
Revenue was down about 6.9% but gold sold was down about 17.2%. So this gold gets sold this quarter when the gold price is a fair slug higher.
Super Roty an interesting comment but I cant see any justification.
Gold Bullion on hand at 31 Dec was about 7koz -
2023 Production was 441koz, gold sold 438koz so 3koz carried forward to 2024
Q1/24 Production 105koz - sold 93koz = 12koz + 7koz = 19koz carried forward.
All seems pretty open and normal to me!
If they sold that 7koz carried over from 2023 on 1st April the gain would be around $200/oz = $1.4m total gain. Good business!
Bought back in after last nights sell Paul.
My buy price average of 123.8.
My buy was about 4.5% below price last night and the about 1.5% above the lowest price of today.
Worth the gamble for me based on the RNS, and economics/data.
I sold some IDS (Royal mail) first thing and bought a few more here at 124.3 . If I had held my nerve 2 minutes longer it would have been better. I then sold most of the ones i bought at 126. 3 and bought back most of the IDS at 15p less to bring my average down a little.
The RNS today isn't a horror but the initial Spanking was. I think most of it was more or less known about regarding the "Softer" H1------------but as you know, the market likes to churn shares.
I take is as a positive that the figures for the year haven't changed------------but they still need to get the gold out and the costs down! The waste contract ending and the other solar should help a bit. The unsold gold should be getting sold at a higher price than it would have a month ago.
I suppose other that any unexpected news coming out, we will all just murmur about stuff until Q2 comes out.
I'd like to hear Dasut's views on this.
It's a good job I make my own jam because I'm still waiting for the Centamin jam
If gold holds around the price it is now and we get back up to 130 and hold there for a bit, I'd be quite happy in the short term-------until closer to the next update.
Thank you Tibbs, you are too kind. :)
As previously indicated, I suspect they robbed Peter here to pay Paul . - They had to meet minimum forecast for last year and borrowed from this Q's take to do so. - To be honest, had they not met minimums for last year, the SP would have taken a big hit at the time and followed well through into this year I feel. - So, in this regard, it was perhaps the right thing to do and something that any of us here would also have been tempted into doing. - One ray of hope for me: Horgan has gone out on a limb this time in that he is forecasting increased production from here on in. - He has not specifically loaded it all onto H2. - I see that as a positive going forward. - Now that is something from a cynical old sod like me.
The miss was mainly on earnings in Q1 that were around $23M or 1.7p a share. Allowing for the 104,000 it was probably 4,000-5,000 on what some may have expected. This would verify a 5p drop that we observed. The main issue is how long the low grade ore was being mined this month (feed grade at open pit needs to increase 0.21g/t which is a big ask. If the grade improvement happens in May then April production would be 33,000 ounces instead of 40,000 and they would lose 1/6th of the profit from current higher prices in gold. This later metric gives a pull back figure to say 123p. The other risk building up is that may not be able to hit the high end projections for the year being forecast.
Just as Rebess rightly suspected!
So a trouser down moderate spanking for us all again, but the good times might be coming sometime in the who knows when
The open pit has once again shown the mediocre grades are endemic and that the commercial viability of Sukari is very much reliant on the underground workings!
just as well the POG is where it is or the trouser down spanking would have been considerably harder!
Miss?... Could you explain what was the miss or the failure?.... It's not different than what the market expected... No surprise at all... Today's hit should be absorbed as we move towards the dividend
We will soon find out if the market likes or dislikes the lipstick applied to the piggy.
It shows the vulnerability of gold miners trying to keep up with gold. If the physical market can not take miners produced gold then the paper market has messed things up. All about taking physical delivery of what they produce.
Unfortunately it's always a blind gamble just before a scheduled RNS.
Although this time Horgan did temper expectations on the Q&A section of the webcast.