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Tornadotony, Hillfog90,
thanks for your lucid posts...
"""we expect production rates to now increase for the balance of the year and reaffirm our 2024 production and cost guidance ranges"""
if this this in good faith, and I don't have reason to doubt it, it is al that really matters now - for me
As in the title:
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Hi Tibbs
Half the gold the mine produces comes from the pit.
The low grades are because material classified as waste turned out actually to be low-grade ore that was nevertheless worth processing.
This was a bonus and a good thing.
The open pit seems to be mining just for the sake of mining , how many times now have we heard they have hit some unexpected low grades!
Why not just be honest and admit that the open pit is to a large extent a waste of money, energy and time!
Reduced their position, would have been just prior to RNS today!
Of course they wouldn't have had any prior knowledge would they?
Another financial reason for my buy back in:
Revenue was down about 6.9% but gold sold was down about 17.2%. So this gold gets sold this quarter when the gold price is a fair slug higher.
Super Roty an interesting comment but I cant see any justification.
Gold Bullion on hand at 31 Dec was about 7koz -
2023 Production was 441koz, gold sold 438koz so 3koz carried forward to 2024
Q1/24 Production 105koz - sold 93koz = 12koz + 7koz = 19koz carried forward.
All seems pretty open and normal to me!
If they sold that 7koz carried over from 2023 on 1st April the gain would be around $200/oz = $1.4m total gain. Good business!
Bought back in after last nights sell Paul.
My buy price average of 123.8.
My buy was about 4.5% below price last night and the about 1.5% above the lowest price of today.
Worth the gamble for me based on the RNS, and economics/data.
I sold some IDS (Royal mail) first thing and bought a few more here at 124.3 . If I had held my nerve 2 minutes longer it would have been better. I then sold most of the ones i bought at 126. 3 and bought back most of the IDS at 15p less to bring my average down a little.
The RNS today isn't a horror but the initial Spanking was. I think most of it was more or less known about regarding the "Softer" H1------------but as you know, the market likes to churn shares.
I take is as a positive that the figures for the year haven't changed------------but they still need to get the gold out and the costs down! The waste contract ending and the other solar should help a bit. The unsold gold should be getting sold at a higher price than it would have a month ago.
I suppose other that any unexpected news coming out, we will all just murmur about stuff until Q2 comes out.
I'd like to hear Dasut's views on this.
It's a good job I make my own jam because I'm still waiting for the Centamin jam
If gold holds around the price it is now and we get back up to 130 and hold there for a bit, I'd be quite happy in the short term-------until closer to the next update.
Thank you Tibbs, you are too kind. :)
As previously indicated, I suspect they robbed Peter here to pay Paul . - They had to meet minimum forecast for last year and borrowed from this Q's take to do so. - To be honest, had they not met minimums for last year, the SP would have taken a big hit at the time and followed well through into this year I feel. - So, in this regard, it was perhaps the right thing to do and something that any of us here would also have been tempted into doing. - One ray of hope for me: Horgan has gone out on a limb this time in that he is forecasting increased production from here on in. - He has not specifically loaded it all onto H2. - I see that as a positive going forward. - Now that is something from a cynical old sod like me.
The miss was mainly on earnings in Q1 that were around $23M or 1.7p a share. Allowing for the 104,000 it was probably 4,000-5,000 on what some may have expected. This would verify a 5p drop that we observed. The main issue is how long the low grade ore was being mined this month (feed grade at open pit needs to increase 0.21g/t which is a big ask. If the grade improvement happens in May then April production would be 33,000 ounces instead of 40,000 and they would lose 1/6th of the profit from current higher prices in gold. This later metric gives a pull back figure to say 123p. The other risk building up is that may not be able to hit the high end projections for the year being forecast.
Just as Rebess rightly suspected!
So a trouser down moderate spanking for us all again, but the good times might be coming sometime in the who knows when
The open pit has once again shown the mediocre grades are endemic and that the commercial viability of Sukari is very much reliant on the underground workings!
just as well the POG is where it is or the trouser down spanking would have been considerably harder!
Miss?... Could you explain what was the miss or the failure?.... It's not different than what the market expected... No surprise at all... Today's hit should be absorbed as we move towards the dividend
We will soon find out if the market likes or dislikes the lipstick applied to the piggy.
It shows the vulnerability of gold miners trying to keep up with gold. If the physical market can not take miners produced gold then the paper market has messed things up. All about taking physical delivery of what they produce.
Unfortunately it's always a blind gamble just before a scheduled RNS.
Although this time Horgan did temper expectations on the Q&A section of the webcast.
No surprise for me. I suspect ounces were borrowed to meet Q4 target and the same will happen again.
Didn’t expect that if honest
As expected, no surprises,
but still jam tomorrow.
If they do achieve full year guidance and gold price holds we should all be contracting type 2 diabetes from all the promised jam
I thought this might happen with everything leaning to Q4 again. The base line for Centamin is around 102p with this rally up from 93p. Everything above is dependent on the gold price holding and production levels returning. The AISC is still higher than expected. Centamin will take a hit this morning.
Its a shame that the 19,000 couldnt have been sold in Q1 but Q2 should be really good
Lets hope Pog goes back up a bit today to compensate it
Autonomy. Not great but entirely as expected and year is still spot on guidance. Expect a drop as Hoc etc on this albeit expected news and then a v quick recovery so great buying opportunity unless market has this news baked in as they should have. However like Tibbs don’t see the share price falling as suggested here yesterday back to £1 on the news though I think $2000 gold this year is just as likely as $3000 though I hope for the latter so Cey could be £1 later in the year though it could be £2 albeit less panglossian than Tibbs I think the former perhaps likelier but ever hopeful too
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CEY/q1-2024-report-yq4snqk6p99n1rt.html
Not very good at all