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Great Mara news, held off selling the other day. Sometimes a bit of luck needed
That's excellent cheers 👍 Looks like they've finally addressed the value destruction, sets a high bar for rivals now. Best part: "there is no need for us to raise additional capital to achieve our objective"
Marathon Digital Holdings Increases 2024 Hash Rate Target to 50 Exahash
Marathon began 2024 with approximately 24.7 EH/s energized and had been planning to grow its hash rate by approximately 46% to 35-37 EH/s by the end of the year. Based on current machine orders and available capacity following its recent acquisitions, Marathon now expects to grow its operations to approximately 50 EH/s by the end of 2024. The new target represents approximately 100% growth in hash rate during 2024 and is fully funded based on Marathon’s current liquidity position.
“Given the amount of capacity we have available following our recent acquisitions and the amount of hash rate we have access to through current machine orders and options, we now believe it is possible for us to double the scale of Marathon’s mining operations in 2024 and achieve 50 exahash by the end of the year,” said Fred Thiel, Marathon’s chairman and CEO. “With our current liquidity position, this growth target is also fully funded and there is no need for us to raise additional capital to achieve our objective. By deploying state of the art equipment and our own proprietary technology, we also believe that we can improve our fleet efficiency and approach 21 joules per terahash as we grow to 50 exahash.”
lol argo don't have a miner to **** in or a window to throw it out of but punters asking are 'dividends' due ffs.
if i was chippas and reading the room, i'd try and keep this charade going for as long as possible.
If those direct costs are accurate Argo will bleed cash like nobody's business and be wiped out in no time but with no cash figure needing to be declared until the interims Chippers can obscure the true state of affairs until August.
You'll hear nothing unless an equity raise lands before August.
Difficulty has actually increased around 10% vs the average in q1 too so I suspect direct cost per Bitcoin now is about $34000 x2 for the halving.
I watched the entire presentation and q&a for a change and it’s clear there’s absolutely no strategy to get themselves out of this situation besides putting on a brave face and remaining publicly upbeat in the hope that a BTC price surge translates into an Argo sp price surge and enough interest to place again. Personally Thomas will be focused on reaching this November vesting date to receive his ~1m ADR shares and then in an ideal world the next November and the one after too.
If we had the less than 2 cent electricity we were sold we'd be laughing just now.
Of course if we had the
Yeah, even if we assume they were making 10k a coin in cash (which is likely not the case), then if they mine 50 coins, they are generating 500k cash a month, but the interest payments we know are more than that, and that doesn't account for the wages of the 30 staff. Actually it might be less than 30 as that was the average for the year....
My experience was my questions never got answered. To the layman it sounds like they've answered all the questions, but there's clearly an element of pick and choose.
Hosting agreement we never got any detail on, but it does expire at year end.
"but they were ignored for silly questions like ‘is Argo thinking about paying a dividend this year?’"
Haha - reminds me of some of the 'challenging' questions PW fielded back in the day about football teams and superheroes or some such like!
On a more serious note one thing I can't ever remember seeing is the terms of the hosting arrangement. Perhaps these are the more the cause of the rise e.g. maybe there was a limited time when they were on a better deal and this has now expired? I know the power credits also cause volatility but I'm at a loss to rationalise their numbers - though one thing at least that is clear is that they are doomed, and pretty soon, if they persist on this basis.
Could be time to bin the cost per coin metric. Fine for our own calcs but I'm suspicious of any company using it, given total leeway about what they can exclude. Galaxy is the worst I've seen for this but Argo close second for publishing the number without disclosing what they were leaving out.
Those are basically the questions I put forward, alongside a’at roughly what BTC price, difficulty where it is now, would Argo be back generating cash?’ but they were ignored for silly questions like ‘is Argo thinking about paying a dividend this year?’
"The $31k direct costs from Q1 does not include depreciation so let's move on from this idea that they are still generating cash - that's simply not the case!"
Blimey - that's horrendous. The obvious follow-ups are why is it so high and how has it increased so much since they last reported (only a minority part of it is due to increased difficultly) and is such an increase temporary (due to weather etc.). So happy to admit I was wrong but in my defence I don't think anybody would expect their mining costs to have increased so much in such a short space of time. It also leaves unanswered the peculiar Q4 depreciation numbers.
So on these numbers they are barely breakeven cashwise even before interest and overheads. What's the saying? "They've got two chances. Slim, and none. And Slim just left town"?
They've confirmed electricity of just under 5 cents per kwh. (I'm not clear if this is inclusive of curtailment benefit or not). They also confirmed that they are underclocking, so the J/T might be a little less than the 30 J/T, but would also reduce hashrate if they are doing this.
60ish cost per coin for electricity/hosting is expensive - and does not include interest payments/corporate bloat/etc.
"It all depends on what that $31k 'direct cost' per BTC in Q1 actually includes. If it is just electricity/hosting then yes they certainly are but if it includes depreciation then almost certainly not."
Someone asked this question in Argo's Investor call during the Q&A, the official answer directly from Argo is... No, the $31k does NOT include depreciation.
Are you listening to the q&a? Are you Jason, Hexam? Ha
The $31k direct costs from Q1 does not include depreciation so let's move on from this idea that they are still generating cash - that's simply not the case!
HC - I agree the $18m is a real concern but as I said I'm not so sure that they are burning cash at the moment. It all depends on what that $31k 'direct cost' per BTC in Q1 actually includes. If it is just electricity/hosting then yes they certainly are but if it includes depreciation then almost certainly not. I can't believe their costs have shot up so much (or that they had next to no depreciation in Q4) but it all looks very strange (wrong?) so I can't be sure either way.
I thought we would know a lot more from the FY results but actually I'm much more uncertain now - at least until they, or someone else, can shed any light on what on earth is going on with these bizarre (to me anyway) looking numbers.
Flatliner - The new management have done a good job but nearly all of that improvement is simply down to last year's figures having both a big devaluation of BTC assets in them (when they had a HODL) and the huge losses incurred when they sold HELIOS and new machines at such a high discount.
So they've done wonders steadying the ship but the big numbers in the improvement have very little to do with them and those improvements won't be seen again.
Hexam this answered my question on upcoming debts, short term debt is therefore above the cash position and as they will likely be burning cash rather than generating now, even if modestly, it means that cash needs to be raised at some point just to pay those debts and not even for growth.
Albeit the majority maturing in June I assume which is still a long way off.
The company's total comprehensive loss for the year was $17.3 million (2022: $191.1 million).
Not smelling of roses, but hey Good job to the leadership here.
Yeah. To the outsider who doesn't follow Argo too closely monthly revenues will look something like this, unless BTC rallies in the immediate term:
Jan - $5.3m
Feb - $4.5m
March - $7m
April - ~$5.6m?
May - $3.8m?
That March figure is what was needed month on month here.
Yeah Q1s will be deceptively flattering for everyone, tipping point only really kicking in now. Once May monthly reports start coming through could be start of some carnage. Banking on Mara having their sht together by then, other big names should be fine too, but for a lot of smaller players it feels like a rugpull is getting going now.
Exactly. The question is will Chippas signal a new direction and if so will the market buy it? Only a SP spike and a massive raise off the back of it keeps Argo alive into 2025
As I’ve said before if Argo was valued at £15m now they’d be a punt to be had on survival but at £70m the potential upside isn’t worth the more likely outcome of failure.
They should get into memecoins - Petecoin anyone?
They have some energy credits which will help them, but they are done for by year end barring some miracle.
Hash won't drop, S21's are coming through, and in many cases you can fit twice the hash into the same slot as the previous old gen miner.
The constant expansion of the last year has been a drag for us miner investors, but it's pretty clear now why it had to happen, and also why many are moving to AI for revenue support.
Q1's coming next month and should look good on the surface with pre-halving revenue and FASB profits.
Argo are going to need to pivot into some other form of crypto biz, they cant afford to stay in this business. Next month they are mining 50 if they are lucky and at this price thats 3.3 million revenue a month, problemos!
Bear or bull market Argo lose money, hopefully these inferior miners get ironed out and Global hashrate starts dropping a little bit.
1.4 EH to make 1 BTC per day at 630 EH thats mental! the economics dont work for many, Either btc needs to fly or a lot of these miners have to start accepting the futility of btc mining and give it up.