Hellenic Petrol Company Research (0K9U)

HELLENiQ ENERGY’s refining margins have returned to levels achieved immediately following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, driven by the Middle East conflict. We believe refining margins will remain above previous mid-cycle levels, due to fragmentation of global product flows and elevated geopolitical risk, but also because of structural changes in the market as a result of limited refining capacity additions. We introduce reported EPS estimates for FY26, FY27 and FY28 of €2.51, €1.74 and €1.77 respectively. Our DCF-based valuation gives a fair value of €13.3/share, while our SOTP valuation is €14.0/share. The difference may be due to our view of the Refining, Supply & Trading business, where we apply a higher target multiple than we believe the market does.