Minimum 6 month delay to side track - and sidetrack to where??2 Aug 2021 12:06
One thing that is abundantly clear is that even though they did not reach the targets, they saw enough in what they have drilled so far to know that their prognosis is very wrong - hence why they don't know in which direction to sidetrack.
Why is their prognosis 'very' wrong? In a mechanical sidetrack around a troublesome hole section (or lost BHA), the distance from the original wellbore to the new well bore is a few 10's of meters.
In this case, they clearly need to deviate much further away, so in reality it's a geological sidetrack and not just because of a lost hole section and will be more expensive (and time consuming) because substantial directional work will be required.
By the time they have shot new seismic, prosessed it, integrated the reults into their current seismic data base and interpreted the results, we are looking at a minimum delay of six months.
So UKOG are automatically looking at extra costs to demob and then remob the Rig and all equipment - and it would be interesting to see if they have to carry 100% of that - plus site maintenance / security during that period.
While six months delay will take them into late Winter, bad weather may slow them down, but will not stop operations.
A big concern is that directional wells in those high tectonic stress regimes are challenging and can be almost impossible if you are drilling against the regional stress orientation.
If their new structural interpretation means that the direction they need to go in is against the regional strres orientation, it would likely be more cost-effective to build a new well pad and drill a vertical well to the revised target.
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