Member Info for ZYX098

Violin Dog,

As Mirasol said, there is zero chance of Navitas owning the whole basin.

There are open licenses in the NFB, plus whatever relinquishments have to be made on the current licenses.

So the FIG will hold a licensing round along the same lines as the UK and Navitas will have to apply the same as any other Company - and no Govt will put all their eggs in one basket.

Navitas may try and take over RKH, but that wouldn't really make sense in the context that they are also trying to farm down their share in SL.

There is no chance of RKH changing listing to the Israeli stock exchange, irrespective of where the majority of their shareholders are based. Why restrict access to the London money markets?

While the Shekel is technically a hard currency, it is not as liquid as the $ or £. Given the relative volatility of the Shekel (and greater vulnerability to 'Black Swan' events), it would make the actual cost of payment of dividends and repayment of loans/bonds unpredictable.

Does anyone know if this meeting will be livestreamed?

CG

"Follower".

Corrected it for you.

Surprised to see you back after the spanking you got last time.....

I doubt it's a coincidence - todays announcement will have put pressure on the FIG.

"We are getting on with it - so should you!"

LTT / Big Red 7,

I think from a Navitas / RKH perspective, they are still confident they'll be ready for FID in October.

My concern was - and still is - that they'll be waiting on the FIG to sign off on the project.

You'd naturally expect the FIG to be cautious and take their time over the various approvals.

Not just because it's their 1st time and that they will be very aware that SL is a game changer in terms of the finances of the FI, but it's also setting the precedence for the approvals process (and FIG tax take) for future projects for - hopefully - decades to come.

The FIG being cautious is shown by their upfront requirement (mentioned in the RNS) for a contingency fund for SL Decommissioning. This would only be required in the event of a drastic failure of the field to perform and reflects the relative size the finances available to Navitas / RHK - I would not see this being a requirement for a bigger player who would have the financial capacity to take such a loss and still meet their Decom obligations.

In that respect, I'd like clarity on if this cash is going to be held in an escrow account for the life of the field, or gradually released back to Navitas / RKH as the FIG tax revenue increases during production.

Disappointed in how much is being offered to us PI's, but as someone has pointed out, it's the maximum allowed under the rules without publishing a full prospectus.

Ocelot,

"The UK currently has just 12 days of winter gas demand in storage, far less than EU countries."

When the gas price spikes and sends our energy bills up, just remember who was to blame.

In September 2013, the Energy Secretary declined to support the refurbishment of Rough, which was then nearing the end of it's design life.

He essentially stated that the UK had adequate gas supplies and additional storage facilities were not required.

Not only did that stop Centrica from proceeding with the (then) £1 Billion refurbishment program, it's also stopped in their tracks the planned repurposing of the depleted Baird and Deborah Fields for gas storage.

Of course, his decision had nothing to do with the £85,000 pa he was taking in Consultancy Fees from a Wind Farm developer, or the £20,000 pa in consultancy fees from a Law Firm who represented Solar Farm developers.

Who was the Energy Secretary in 2013?

Sir Ed Davey - fresh from his position as Postal Affairs Minister - where he had ignored the evidence that was beginning of the Horizon scandal...

Hi LTT,

If there's enough gas to justify a pipeline to the FI, then there's enough to justify using an FLNG system to produce and export the gas.

In many ways, it would be more advantageous (quicker/cheaper) than trying to build an onshore facility.

No pipeline (lots of fishing in the area), no new port facility needed, no import / processing / export terminal (all the materials of which would have to be imported, assembled and tested on site), significant reduction in environmental impact etc.

It's been a bit of slog, but the technology for building and operating an FLNG facility is finally advanced enough that there are several facilities in use and capacity is expected to rise dramatically as currently stranded assets can now be developed economically.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/global-flng-capacity-to-triple-2030

Jacknose (who doesn't sound at all like Adrian.....),

Why are you very optimistic now?

UKOG have liabilities (several times the Company Market Cap) that they cannot possibly meet.

They have no Income.

They have no hope of getting any income.

The BoD continue to pay themselves very handsomely, further depleting what little cash reserves are left.

So I ask, again, why are you optimistic now?

Hi MM,

Does Shenandoah flowing have any knock on effect for RKH in terms of being able to raise funds?

I gather Sam said at the AGM that he would need to issue more shares, but is a bank loan a possibility now? Maybe through RBL?

Also, does it reduce the likelihood of Navtias framing down their interest in SL? Why would Navitas want to farm down at this stage anyway?

Thanks in advance for any light you can cast on these.

Don't forget the UK has the Gulf Stream Drift keeping us warm.

That's why Americans are shocked to find out how much further North we are than NY - we are on roughly the same Latitude as Newfoundland!

Thanks Gents.

Hopefully Navitas will provide an English version soon, although it's clear they still think FID will be this year!

LTT - enjoy the holiday!

Mirasol,

Agreed, it would be advantageous for both parties if a JHI Well location was available.

JHI could even use Navitas to supply all personnel in the FI on temporary assignment - kind of Project Management deal. They could also hop on the back of most of the supply contracts - get Navitas to supply the equipment and consumables on a pass through basis, say cost +10%.

Do JHI have the finances to be able to drill a Well?

Or will they need to farm out?

Hi Mirasol,

The original facilities that were built were for little more than storage of consumables, and yes, they were fine for that purpose.

The programs were short enough that they just shipped down additional back up tools and equipment so they didn't have to repair / refurbish anything.

There are different requirements for a long term operational base, now including the additional requirements of building up the Completions sub-assemblies and providing support once Production is up and running. The Construction people will also need storage space.

So, for example, they'll need to build an inspection facility and a waste management facility.

The refurbishment of the downhole tools will need a make up / break out machine, plus Jar tester.

The Completions work will mean at least two bucking units will be required to be installed.

Both will need to be in Warehouses with Gantry Cranes.

They are using Synthetic Oil Based Mud, so a liquid mud plant will be needed, plus a dry bulk facility (used to cut the big bags of cement and barite).

They'll need to build permanent bunkers for long term storage of RA Sources, detonators and explosives.

With the manpower requirements for everything, I estimate that the base will be permanently manned by around 30 - 35 people. That's not including ancillary Staff such as Crane / Fork-lift drivers, Catering and Cleaners. The Helicopter flight crews and maintenance people will be another, say, 20 personnel, also permanently based on the FI.

Certainly in the early days, these will all be Expats (apart from the ancillary Staff) as they are specialists and locals would need to be trained up. That's presuming that enough locals can be taken on board, as the FI has 100% employment already.

As for accommodation, again, different requirements compared to a few people occasionally for a cruise ship delay. The people I mentioned will need to be accommodated full time.

On crew changes, the charter flight won't be in and out the same day - they'll have to stay overnight for flight crews to rest.

In any case, it will be difficult to crew change around 150 people (maybe up to 250 during Construction) every time in just one day, even if there are no weather / technical delays.

The crew change will happen every two weeks for years, plus the people permanently in the FI for the base, plus the Helicopter flight & maintenance crews.

This is why Navitas are building a separate Hotel, otherwise they'll put undue strain on the local resources - they absolutely want to keep on the right side of the local population!

Ocelot,

You are correct in that we should be prioritising long term energy storage over building more renewables.

And Mad Ed should be prioritising pumped Hydro instead of batteries, as that is the most cost effective.

But it still has nothing to do with UKOG.....

BTW, taking a year to P&A a Well and restore the site is complete BS.

Ocelot,

How long it will take UKOG to P&A BB-1 to UK Standards (OEUK Well Decommissioning Guidelines Issue 7, November 2022) is very much dependent on how they abandoned each zone that was tested.

If they did it properly, then the P&A of the Well should be fairly simple, and should indeed take 14 - 20 days, including the time to mobiise and rig up all the equipment and demobilise it at the end.

If, however, they did not - then we are looking at what could easily be 2 months of work and require a lot more equipment and materials.

Restoring the site after the P&A has been completed shouldn't take too long - certainly less than 4 weeks, depending upon the recontouring required.

Possibly less than that if the land owner would like to keep the site as a storage area themselves for example.

But I can guarantee that both the UK Authorities and the Contractors will want to see that UKOG have the funds available to cover the work before they commence - they will be well aware of UKOG's parlous financial position and that they have no income.

The UK Authorities will want assurance that UKOG have the funds to complete the work. The last thing they'd want if for UKOG to declare bankruptcy in the middle of the work program, potentially while the Well is in an unsafe condition.

Before they'd agree to start work each Contractor will either demand a Bank Guarantee, or the estimated contact value be deposited in an escrow account.

We can only dream :)

Hi All,

I meant the packages for Drilling & Completing the Wells.

Subsea 7 (if their announcement is for SL), would be for the production side of things - e.g. installing the manifolds, flowlines and mooring system for the FPSO.

GOYB - Yes, it would be more cost-effective / easier to batch drill and complete. Done that several times myself.

However, if that's what they are doing, then they'd better have a fall back position.

If they've set the 9 5/8" casing on the Production Wells and the first 8 1/2" horizontal section in the Reservoir has problems for some reason (1st horizontal and use of OBM), then they need a back up plan available so they can go off and do that (a nearby Exploration / Appraisal Well would be my favourite) while working out what the problem was and (if required) mobilising any additional materials and/or equipment to solve it.

Gus0,

BOR have hung out the begging bowl and while the article in Energy Voice a couple of weeks ago was full of the usual hopeful platitudes that we've been hearing for years, there was nothing concrete w.r.t. a farm-out.

BOR's license is due to expire in Dec 2026 and I think it's no coincidence that the last fund raise also gave them cash to operate until Dec 2026.

I'm still hopeful.

But we are rapidly running out of time to arrange a farm out and get permits / equipment / materials / Rig sorted and down there to get an Exploration / Appraisal program running before the end of the license.

Are none of you Science Fiction fans?

"MG, it's full of stars" is practically the last line in 2001 A space Odyssey!

I still don't see an Appraisal Well being drilled on Isobel for several years - likely after the phase 2 SL Wells have been drilled.

If I was Navitas, I'd have an Exploration / Appraisal Well in my back pocket, just in case there are issues with the drilling of SL (first deviated and horizontal Wells in the basin) that need to be sorted out.

But this would be a nearby structure, as it's more cost effective to drill structures that could be tied back to the SL production facilities and generate cash flow earlier.

If Isobel was successful, it would need to be a stand alone project and neither Navitas or RKH have the bandwidth (finance or resources) for that any time soon.