Member Info for ZYX098

Gus0,

Wow – it took all of 14 mins of your “expensive time” to reply.

I must really be living rent free in your head.

I suppose “I took you off filter” is a marginally better excuse than “I have you on filter but saw it on my phone”.

But we both know that, in reality, you never filtered me in the first place.

If you’ve had 2 separate Zoom meetings with the BOD, then great – why don't you arrange another one and post the link on here so we can all attend?

Irrespective, that doesn’t give you the right to act like you are in daily contact, or that they are supposedly giving out sensitive information to a PI.

Nor does it give you the right to immediately attack another poster with outright abuse and denigration, while employing deflection to avoid answering any questions.

You clearly do care that I have more O&G experience than you, otherwise you wouldn’t react with such outright hostility whenever I (or someone else like Mogger) posts anything that has the temerity to question your assertions.

But that’s the problem when someone you tries to give it the big “I am” and act as if you are the Sheriff of the board – sooner or later someone who actually knows what they are talking about comes along and bursts your bubble.

And no, you haven’t been “assured that yo are a bit of a dumbo” – we both know you just made that up to try and assuage your fragile ego.

Otherwise, how would I still be working, running Rigs, after over 30 years in the O&G business?

And why, over on the RKH board, would they say my posts are “insightful” and “informative”, that I’m “very well informed” and that I “clearly know your stuff”?

I could say I’ll be waiting with baited breath for your reply - which will no doubt be as invective laden and fact free as your previous replies – but I’m not.

Happy,

Don't forget that once the trigger on FID has been pulled, there really isn't any advantage in slowing the execution of the project - slowing it will ultimately cost more, not save cash.

The funds are already committed and so you need to get to 1st Oil as quickly as possible to be able to start repaying the financing.

FID = "I'm pregnant!!!"

With Navitas and RKH both appearing to have the funding sorted out, is there any other risk to FID?

My thought is - apart from the proverbial 'black swan' event - the only other potential risk is that the FIG don't get all their approvals signed off before purdah at the end of October.

If that's the case, I feel that this would just delay FID until Feb 2026, to give the new FIG time to wrap their heads around the whole project before signing off.

I don't think that the potential political problems in Argentina will have any real effect, as the project isn't reliant on any support from Argentina (or the rest of South America) from a logistics perspective.

Is there anything else?

I think it depends on your perspective and attitude to risk.

BOR have the begging bowl out and have engaged a reputable outfit to help them farm out their license.

When (I no longer think it's an "if") Navitas announce FID on SL, it will undoubtedly pique interest in the FI in general.

It will also mean that any further developments in the FI will have their Capex and Opex somewhat reduced by the presence of another Operator.

There is no doubt that the potential reserves on BOR's acreage are substantial and it's also condensate which I believe is now more marketable than the SL crude.

The recent advances in FLNG technology also means that I believe the potentially large gas reserves can now be monetised.

However, there are two big things going against BOR.

Firstly, the amount of cash it will take to just appraise Darwin (never mind explore any other structure) would mean that any farminee will want the overwhelming majority of the block. I think BOR would be lucky to retain 20% - if that - and they certainly can't afford anything other than a 100% carry.

Secondly, the SFB licenses (like in the NFB) are all ending in Dec 2026, so it depends on what the FIG want to do.

Do they want to roll over the SFB licenses while they concentrate on the NFB? Or do they want to take them back in and award them to a larger company that can actually carry out a substantial work program so they can get a better handle on what the SFB's potential is?

We know that RKH have assigned no value to their SFB holdings and that BOR's recent placing was sufficient to keep the lights on until Dec 2026 - which I don't think is a coincidence.

So while I'm very confident that ultimately the SFB will be a productive area, I'm not so confident that BOR will still be around to enjoy the spoils.

For that reason I have sold enough of my BOR shares to recoup my original investment and take some profit on top.

I'll keep the rest for the moment, as I expect BOR to take a bump up on SL FID, and will decide then if I want to keep or sell up.

Happy,

No, I have not sold any RKH.

The price rise over the last year now means it's an uncomfortably large part of my share portfolio, so I will probably sell some after FID to recoup my original investment - but I plan on hanging onto the rest for years to come.

Also, I'll be applying for my full entitlement (whatever that is!) in the open offer when it comes.

Happy,

A glut has been predicted for some time, but the oil price really hasn't shifted with the (several) recent increases in market supply by OPEC.

Saudi tried to prioritise market share over price before, and that ended disastrously as US Shale production kicked in and basically ate their lunch for them.

The reality is that nearly all OPEC producers have little spare capacity (many cannot even match their quotas) and while Saudi has several million BOPD to spare, the great majority of it is in heavy, sour crude which has a limited market.

US Shale (oil & gas) is beginning to look like it has plateaued or even started to fall. Nearly all the recent increases in production have come from a small section of the Permian basin.

In the meantime, the energy demand in Africa and SE Asia continues to grow rapidly as 2+ Billion people move into "the middle classes" or get power for the first time (there are some 600 Million in Africa alone with NO access to electricity).

Also coming up rapidly are the huge energy demands for the AI Data centers - in the US this is likely to cause an 8% increase in energy demand this year!

In the meantime, new reserves / production has no where near caught up from the 2015-2019 recession in the oil industry, plus the disruption/recession caused by Covid so supply and demand are much more finely balanced than before.

I don't see Melei's current difficulties causing a problem for SL. The development is being set up such that it's not reliant on logistics support from Argentina (or the rest of South America for that matter) as Navitas have - quite rightly - taken a long term view that political disruption could cause any bases there to be shut down.

Sure a 'Black Swan' event could affect this (either way!), but apart from that I really don't see anything else that could substantially affect FID.

fortunate,

depends what you are looking for.

if it's "blue sky, likely to fail but if they succeed it will be incredible", then worth looking at 88 energy, meren energy and reconnaissance energy africa.

they all have large acreage positions in sw africa at the very early stages of exploration - but put in only what you can loose and wait for a good few years for any return.

others worth a look at are amaroq, aura energy, berkeley energia and greenroc mining. all have large proven mineral resources in europe which are ripe for development if the eu really does move ahead rapidly with it's 'critical minerals' program, or in berkeley's case, the spanish govt realise that they'll loose the court case and the mine should go ahead.

more solid but don't expect spectacular returns are the likes of bae, bab****, kongsberg, ms international and rheinmetall for sadly obvious reasons.

rolls royce also look like a decent shout with the recent govt award for their smr program - the potential is huge.

but!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

dyor!!!!!!!!!

NM1,

Yes!

At the end of the day, ChatGPT is a program (very, very advanced, bt still a program) but ultimately it means that shyte in = shyte out.

If you start asking it questions on whatever your specialty happens to be, you quickly begin to realise it's limitations.

For example, on here I've yet to see a ChatGPT post that recognises that the SL Crude is waxy with the resultant implications for flow assurance, Capex, Opex and feasibility of long distance tie-backs (i.e. they can't be done cost-effectively).

I must admit it's also a bit annoying to be told "you have your opinions and I have mine" when mine are based on many years experience in running Rigs and the other person is just using ChatGPT.

Gus0,

Called it.

You stated you’d filtered me.

I said you’d still read my posts anyway.

And so here we are.

I must have really got under your skin for you to spend so much of your “expensive time” in making three separate posts.

But why do you feel the need to try and ‘big up’ your credentials, while trying to denigrate the job of another poster and resorting to childish insults?

Again, I have over 30yrs experience in the oil industry and run Drilling Rigs for a living - which is why it’s so easy for me to callout your BS.

BTW, the lowest paid person on a Rig is usually the Sample Catcher – but you wouldn’t know that.

Besides, resorting to such tactics and language just makes you look insecure, and also shows you have no real answers to points raised.

Honestly, I’m embarrassed for you.

Why capitalise that you are an Importer?

BTW, thanks for confirming what we all knew already – that you don’t work in the oil industry and so have no idea what you are talking about..

Am I supposed to be impressed because you’ve capitalised it?

Because I’m not.

I am, however, amused that you continually feel the need to try and boost your own ego.

You are just trying to deflect from the fact that you made a statement (you were not postulating a scenario) that Sterling was depreciating against the USD, and you were wrong.

Indeed, if you did keep an eye on the currency markets, you’d know that despite the weakness of Sterling, it’s still forecast to gain against the USD thanks to the actions of Trump.

I know Bruce has 37 years’ experience – what’s that got to do with anything that we have posted about?

Nothing.

Sure you met with the BoD twice – at the same time that everyone else did.

They are called AGM’s, if I recall correctly.

Again, trying to massage your own Ego by calling yourself a “Super PI”, but if you are, why are your predications so often wrong?

Nope, just resorting to your modus operandi of trying to big yourself up while denigrating other posters.

Why did you respond about the FPSO’s here and not in the FPSO thread?

Is it because you stated that there were FPSO’s on Condensate fields in four specific Countries and I showed you were utterly wrong, but you don’t want to draw attention to that?

Why the qualifier in your new assertion?

They are either building new condensate FPSOs, or are not.

Nobody has one yet.

No, you put in ‘apparently’ because you don’t have the technical background to be able to differentiate between the different types of FPSO, so this time you are just scatter gun listing some Companies that are building new FPSOs.

As for capitalising the names of the Companies, is that supposed to impress me?

Because it doesn’t.

Now, are you going to shock me by actually answering the points raised?

Or are you just going to resort to your usual response of attempting to bully another poster

Hi CO2,

It didn't get a lot of attention in the media (wonder why....), but because of the way that the RFCT, SC and EPL taxes are applied, Harbour Energy paid an effective tax rate of 108% last year.

With respect to Jackdaw, most people don't realise that Shell have already spent around £900 Million on the development. The Wells have been drilled and the Platform built, so if Mad Ed doesn't go forward with approval, then you can guarantee that the next thing Shell will do is to sue the Govt.

And it won't just be for costs either. Under regulations left over from when we were in the EU, they can also sue for the lost profits from the development.

Even the UK Climate Change Committee says we will use 15 Billion bbls of oil by 2050, of which only 4 Billion (an over-estimate if Mad Ed stays in position) will be produced by the UKCS.

It is absolutely absurd that we are virtue signaling by kicking the UKCS in the nuts, which will result in higher imports, loss of tax revenue, cause a substantial number of jobs to be lost and actually increase our CO2 emissions.

Meanwhile, Norway continue to explore for and develop more gas reserves - gas that they know that we will need.

CO2,

Try giving it a glass of warm milk instead - maybe that'll slow it down a bit ;)

Hi LTT,

You mentioned FIG and UKGov sign off.

Do the UKGov have to sign off?

Although the FIG have undoubtedly taken advantage of some UK Govt resources to help them, I though that mineral exploitation was a devolved power, so they had independent authority to sign off?

Gus0,

Wrong again - the £ is not depreciating against the US$.

In fact it's gone from $1.24 to $1.34 since the start of the year.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD

Hi Gravedigger,

No problem.

Agreed - I'm thinking that may be why Navitas appear to have not settled on a Rig yet - they'll be getting Gen 5 & 6 Semis and DSs bid with much smaller difference in day rates than you'd normally expect.

In some respects the timing is terrible for RKH - short of cash until 1st Oil and then a veritable waterfall coming in - but short of selling off some of their holding I don't see how that will change significantly in the meantime.

I've two concerns with BOR; firstly I can't see them being fully carried by a farminee for that many Wells.

The other is what will the FIG do with the licenses?

All FI licenses are ending in Dec 2026, so will they just roll over the SFB licenses so they can concentrate on the NFB?

Or will they want to get players with serious money into the SFB, so they can speed up the exploration (and also appraisal of Darwin) in a basin that has so much potential but is drastically under-explored.

Going to be an interesting couple of years!

Gus0,

Resorting to cheap name calling again - as per usual.

You really don't like your lack of knowledge being pointed out, do you?

But that's the problem when you try and BS someone who has over 30 yrs in the oil Industry and runs Drilling Rigs for a living - it just means it's very easy for me to show where you are wrong.

For example, you claimed "after some research, there are many dotted around the world, from Vietnam to Australia to Indonesia to Senegal."

No, there aren't.

You just looked up FPSO's and failed to differentiate between the various different types - because you don't know what you are talking about.

For example, there is one offshore Senegal on the Sangomar OIL field.

There's a couple offshore Vietnam on the Su Tu Den OIL field and the Ruby OIL field.

There's around six offshore Australia, five of them on OIL fields and one on a GAS field.

In fact the Prelude FLNG at 600,000 tons and 488m long i the largest offshore facility in the World.

Offshore Indonesia, there's around a dozen FPSOs, all OIL with 2 - 3 FNLG systems in the FEED stage.

See?

None on a CONDENSATE Field.....

Hi Phil164,

No problem!

Irrespective, any Company who is looking to farm in will be doing their own due diligence - not just on the proposed costs but also in the seismic interpretation, structure mapping and reserves claimed.

FWIW, I think that the recent advances in FLNG technology may well result in the gas being regarded as a monetisable asset, rather than effectively being a waste product.

Fair enough on Harbour.

I think it's a great pity that the current tax regime and Mad Ed's determination to kill off the UKCS has forced them to focus on expanding Overseas - especially since the Wintershall deal may well mean they have to abide by the EU's mandatory CCS targets for Oil Co's.

Phil164,

To be fair to the BoD, they probably haven't revisited their original estimate and therefore don't know just how far out it is now.

I'll have to go back and dig more out on Harbour - I hold shares in them too and last I checked they were still carrying about $2.4 Billion in debt before the acquisition of Wintershall.

As for Gus0, note that he's following the typical "board bully" method of trying to shut down another poster who has the temerity to point out he's not the "expert" he purports to be - by employing cheap insults, deflection and trying to get others to filter the poster.

Note that he still hasn't answered any of my original questions - just employing deflection in the hope that other posters won't recognise he's just an ordinary ramper.

Gus0,

Called it;

###############

"Now, if you go by previous form when someone has caught you out, you will either not respond at all (as when I called out your claim about the license being extended to 2028 - because it's not) or your response will be very aggressive.

If the latter, you will resort to name calling and also employ deflection to try and hide the fact that you have no idea of what you are talking about – like you did with Mogger when he pointed out that you had directly contradicted yourself in the space of two days;"

##################

Care to name the "many" FCPS that you found?

Or do you mean the many FPSO's in those areas that are producing conventional reserves?

Because it's clear that you don't know what you are talking about when it comes to the oil industry.

Just as one example; “The plan is fully researched, costed and off the shelf," when the BOR presentation of Jan 2023 clearly states "pre-FEED studies could be initiated as soon as the successful flow tested has been achieved".

Since you don't know what pre-FEED means, it's pre-Front End Engineering Design.

Therefore not even the pre-Feed has been done on the current concept, never mind the final engineering, so it's clearly not "off the shelf".

And I note that you never answered any of my original questions - because you can't.

As for filtering me - no, you won't.

You'll keep reading my posts and then find some lame excuse ("I saw it on my phone") to post more deflection and insults when I show that you don't know anything about the industry.

The reality is that It really annoys you that someone on this board has actual oilfield experience and can therefore point out the numerous errors and falsehoods that you post.

Divi called it correctly for once - you are just an ordinary PI, one who doesn't have an 'in' with the BoD.

Hi Gravedigger,

I'm not on here 24/7 (unlike some appear to be!), so unfortunately it does tend to lead to me 'blitzing' the board every now and then.

You are correct in that it would normally be advantageous for a couple of Operators to be able to rig share, and so be able to reduce their Rig, materials & equipment Mob/Demob costs - which is what happened during the previous FI drilling campaigns.

However, I don't think that this is applicable in this case.

Firstly, we have to presume that the Rig that Navitas actually contract is capable of drilling in the 2,000m water depth of the SFB area - which means a Rig that is equipped with dynamic positioning rather than a mooring system is needed.

I think that this is actually a reasonable possibility, but it would be by happenstance and not deliberate on the part of Navitas. BOR's Rig requirements would not enter their calculations, as they cannot be assured that we would even be still around by then. Hopefully we will, but it's not something that they can rely on.

Secondly, the lead time to order and deliver the long lead items to the FI is in the order of 18 months.

So if Navitas waited until, say, six months of production data had been obtained before committing to Phase 2, that means that 2 years of work would have to be found for the Rig - which BOR don't have.

This is why I feel (which I've mused on over on the RKH board) that Navitas will go for FID on SL Phase 2 sooner rather than later. This is because the "regret costs" of ordering the long lead items and subsequently either not taking delivery or selling them on will be relatively small compared to demobbing and then remobbing everything again.

Unfortunately the Navitas/.RKH partnership is held back by the financial situation with RKH.

The recent cash influx from the OM insurance pay out means they are not in any financial distress, but also that RKH are in no position to spend significant funds until SL is in production.

This also means that the many other prospects in the SL area (plus the open acreage to the North and East) can't be fully explored / appraised for several years yet.

It's been clear that Navitas are looking to farm down their share of SL for some time, but it's not clear if any farm down would include RKH giving up some of their holding to get funds which would help them pay any cash call for SL Phase 2 or some exploration / appraisal Wells.

It also occurred to me that Navitas might actually be looking for another outfit to form a JV with, which they can use to bid for some of the currently unallocated acreage, plus whatever the Navitas / RKH partnership have to relinquish when the current licenses expire (all FI licenses expire at the same time) in December 2026.

Sorry - long winded reply, but I hope it answered your question?

Hi Mogger,

Can't warrants be exercised at pretty much any time?

I would think that this buying in is a good sign

Unless they are sold straight away, which would be a real kick in the nuts for us LTH's and the share price.