Member Info for zoros

Evan. For someone who bought at the bottom and sold at the very top, it strikes me you don't need assistance?
This picture doesn't look right to me?

Z

Timbertrader - I concur, you were streets ahead of us all with the VALMIN report. This will undoubtedly be the 'go to' reference when the time comes to assess the valuation.
I have read and re-read it a couple of times it is very useful
Tx
Z

StarBright - as ever you are correct. I like your posts, always have done.
For the VAST majority....doing nothing might be the best option. All this choice does is cost you TIME and the delay in getting the SP back to where it was before the black swan event.
BUT it is important to consider these events as part of one's DD package.
One could also consider installing stop losses or grotesquely - shares in an inverse ETF to stem the loss!!
Keep your posts coming.
Z

A lot lot more: If one is to believe the NPV theory post MRE2 where the SP is 25p for 10Moz, then when multiples of this start arriving over the years, the NPV and ergo the SP multiplies accordingly.

For most "normal" investors in GGP, it might be worth assessing future investments in GGP based on the following perhaps:
Imminent: Stage 1 the small mine producing anything between 2Mt and 3Mt/year for up to 11 years (2035).
Medium: GGP bought out @ Havieron.
Long: Bulk underground mine (BUM) producing 11Mt/yr+ between 2025 and 2053 onwards.

The SP will reflect these 'stages' and ergo will be reflected in your portfolio. When do you plan to bail out is the big question. [The decsion may be made for you if you do nothing and the medium term comes about].
Z

From CGP forum:
https://www.orocoresourcecorp.com/_resources/blog/RFC-Ambrian-Copper-Projects-Review-2021.pdf

Pages: 5.9.11.21.22.23.26.35.
Must see: pages 22 and 23! (Thank God for common sense). Tough luck Quades et al.
Best appraisal of the mining industry for ages.
Z

Morning EVAN....May I ask if you have done any DD on GGP?
Z

I'm on a roll...now I'm going to bu gger it all up with what I am about to post!
We all have our views on shorting/SP/5% valuation/buy out/amount of gold etc etc.
But has anyone given any thought to an existential threat to what could be a bumper year for GGP?
In March of this year, Putin will make a decision whether to invade the Ukraine. That is his offical line.
Me? I believe he will make that decision much sooner...end of January beginning of February.
My contacts in the US agree and confirm what Biden has said: the US will "respond decisively".
Most of my associates who are in S and S are thinking of converting to cash shortly, until this blows over.
If Putin invades.......there will be a (temporary) global stock market "adjustment".....just as we are hoping to reap the benefits of the MRE2. Couldn't make it up!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2021/12/20/will-putin-invade-ukraine-and-what--it-would-mean-for-wall-street/?sh=6e89b6312d38

I'm reviewing my position currently.

Views appreciated?

Z

Hi Panama - hope this finds you well.
If you think you need patience with GGP and its rate of progress, look at other miners/explorers/developers/discoverers! GGP and NCM are running at "Mach3". I have never come across a company(NCM) that operates at this speed....ever!
This year (2022) will be transformative for NCM and GGP @ Havieron. 2021 will pale into insignificance.
Watch and learn....watch and learn....;)
Z

Another year will probably bring the same numerous comments about shorting and manipulation, no doubt. I think it's fair and honest that we hear both sides to the "shorting" saga. We can then decide for ourselves.

I picked up on a poster called: "bluetigeruk" early last December.
I asked the Q: why does 'Ortex' show shorting @ GGP?
He replied:
Zoros - this is from Ortex own web site:
"...There have also been suggestions that stock lending data is less useful or less relevant due to synthetic activity surrounding a stock. You can create similar economic effects using derivatives or “synthetic” structures without ever owning the underlying security – options and futures being obvious examples. However, remember that almost all meaningful synthetic positions will be hedged by the underlying issuer. For example, if a significantly large put option is created, the issuer will likely hedge that position by borrowing and shorting the stock. ORTEX stock lending and short interest data therefore also include data related to synthetic positions.
Here a counterparty creates a synthetic PUT - they issue the PUT and then hedge it by stock borrowing - ORTEX also says they take a short position - but thats not true - Ortex are selling you a product here.
-----
AIM MM dont run aggressive books - they are not allowed to - they have a Risk Manager who sets their limits and reviews regularly (BARINGS etc) most of their trades will be automated trades from you and me thinking our £20k trade is a monster - its not of course. An AIM MM will be given say £50k either way as a limit and if they go over that they have to square the book off - this means get the exposure back into the limits - thats why prices move - a MM sells £100k of shares to Zoros and needs to cover that quickly - MM will charge you a spread premium for a trade that size and then will quickly whizz around the other MM and Dealers to cover inside the price.
MM dont make their money by risking their capital - they make it by buying at one price and selling at another - they want to make 1p on 100,000 shares in 3 minutes - not £12p a share over the next 18 months. They don't have the capital to do this.
I worked as a dealer for a few years in the City so i understand how the market works between broker and MM.
Anyway - AIM stocks are way too illiquid for most professionals - the door closes to almost nothing once the market gets fast - thats why Directors are advised to dribble out regular share sales every month on share options etc...."

Shorting (where it does exist) is not illegal in the UK:
https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-update-restrictions-short-selling-uk-and-european-union-update

Since the MMRE, I have advocated that 15p is the true baseline for GGP at its present juncture in discoveries and exploration. 2021 has borne this out.

Let's try and more understand why the soon to be 25% owner of an ealy stage mine reflects the advertised SP. Then we can move

GGP/NCM JV. Regional Sector (outwith Havieron). JURI.

January 2022.

11/20 Juri JV encompasses the following targets in Paterson Range East:
Goliath, Outamind, Los Diablos. Parlay, Saddle Reef, Black Hills, Prefect. Atlantis.
04/21. Commencement of drilling @ Juri JV. 5000m.
[NCM invests $3m until 2023. $17m between 2023 and 2026].
Initial share: NCM:25%. Complete.
Stage1:NCM:51%. Completed.
Stage2:NCM:75%(Optional). Complete by Nov 2024.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20211209/pdf/453z8d3kcprctw.pdf (Page 11).
10/21. Assays @ Goliath / Outamind / Los Diablos downgraded.
10/21. GEM work continues over Paterson Range East and Blackhills.
12/21. GGP retain management @ Juri JV.
23/12/21. Saddle reef / Parlay. remaining assays due.
Q1/22. Tara and Tama drilling expected.

Early days for Juri (relatively), pretty mediocre results thus far. Although SD mentioned 8 out of 9 holes found gold...there wasn't much of it. Maybe time will tell. NCM are happy to leave the management to GGP for a little longer, because of this I suspect.
Z

IF...and it is a big IF (for some), you genuinely believe that GGP will be worth 25p mid Feb (post MRE2), then we have a NPV figure, don't we?
25p x 4.2Bn GGP shares equals: £1.05bn.
This makes Hav equal: £3.5Bn.
5% of Hav equals: £175m.
So I expect both parties to go into the negotiation using this as their baseline and work upwards from there. NCM and GGP have exactly the same intel on Hav. Both will be aware of what 'may' be forthcoming up to the DFS (Q4/22). As has been said before...the final figure will form the basis for a 100% buyout when NCM decide to 'clear the decks'.
Yes - I firmly believe NCM will take GGP out @ Havieron before production starts in earnest on the BUM or even the starter mine in CY23/24.
5% valuation: betwee £175 (4p on the share price) and who knows!
Z

Digging down into the numbers.....Again - it's just me and my thoughts.

The next MRE (number2) is due in Q1/22. Pick your dates. [My date: 16th Feb].
I expect this to be the second of many between now and production [I estimate 6 in total between now and the end of stage 4(SLOS, CY23/24)].
The MRE is picking up where the PFS talked about all the infill and growth since Feb 2021. There is a lot! 54Mt to be exact. More inferred will be converted to indicated and this will add value to our bottom line. How much exactly?
BB/Canaccord are quoting 25p (ish) - have been since the SLOS replaced the SLC. When they saw that NCM were changing the design of the early stage mine and that costs would increase by 250%, they slashed the recommendation from 33p to 25p.
They are 'estimating' another 10Moz inside that 54Mt. I am going out on a limb here and going to suggest: 3 - 3.5Moz(indicated), the rest (7+)(inferred).
Now unless we have an expert who is closer to the hub than our brokers, I have chosen to run with 25p after the MRE2 results are advertised. Not much, some of you ask?
We have another 5 or 6 MRE's to go remember before production......slowly slowly catcha monkey!
So: Another 10Moz to add to our existing 4 ish Moz...for 25p. If it's more then I will be over the moon.
Until now I have been a strong supporter of the 15p SP, based on what we have to date.
I will now expect and support 25p for the foreseeable future (ie: next MRE/sale of 5%/FS/bid).
Any of the previously mentioned catalysts could lift the SP above this, remember.
In closing - DYOR and base the next several months on what you expect the SP to be. 25p is mine.
This now leads nicely onto the 5% valuation...........
Z

Look at this period:

Q1/22. GGP ESG report due.
27/01/22.
NCM December quarterly results.
[12 Assays due (SE Cresc (infill and growth), N and E breccia, NW Pod, Zipa].
16/02/22.
NCM Half Year results. (Possibly MRE2 results included*).
5% valuation initial agreement date.
Q1/22. *MRE(2)(Inferred) for extended SE Crescent and breccia / N. breccia zone.
In addition - MRE(Indicated) uprated.

Lots of catalysts for a rise in the SP:
The ESG report is 'de rigeuer' in the industry and an essential ingredient for a growing junior miner. Markets expect and love ESG reports.
27th Jan: - 12 assays are due...which will only add to our portfolio of resources. I expect further good news in this regard.
And then (IMO) the mother of all reports: MRE2* [I know some on here are expecting the mre to appear before this date. I remain firmly in the camp that the MRE(2) will piggy back NCM's half year results and I will go further and suggest that the contents of this 2nd MRE from Havieron will already have been built into the 5% valuation report [More on this later].
For me...I am expecting the biggest single rise in the SP since January 2021 and possibly until the middle of 2022. [More later].
I also think the term sheets will need to absorb the mre2 results if they are to be more favourable to GGP (when they are completed in Q2).

Conspicuous by their absence of course: Scally! Is there anyone out there with the latest on Scally? Have any of our geo and satelite buffs have an update on the latest scally activities? Are GGP still drilling there? The latest Scally assays were due last month it seems. Maybe there will be something in the post over the next two weeks.

Can't emphasise enough - the next 6 weeks will change GGP forever (all IMO, of course).
Z

January 2022. HAVIERON

14/05/21. Decline commences. (420m deep / 3km long).
15/07/21. Mine officially open.
Q4/21. 90,000m growth drilling continues until July 2022.
12/21. Scallywag assays due.
H2/21. Drilling programme commences – Rudall.
Q1/22. GGP ESG report due.
27/01/22. NCM December quarterly results.
[12 Assays due (SE Cresc (infill and growth), N and E breccia, NW Pod, Zipa].
16/02/22. NCM Half Year results. (Possibly MRE2 results included*).
5% valuation initial agreement date.
Q1/22. *MRE(2)(Inferred) for extended SE Crescent and breccia / N. breccia zone.
In addition - MRE(Indicated) uprated.
27/04/22. NCM March quarterly results. GGP Term sheets?
2022. Drilling commences @ Ernest Giles.
Q4/22. D.F.S. Decision to be made to Bulk Mine (as a JV) by NCM / GGP.
[NCM loan of $50m runs out on completion of DFS].
[Decision to mine will result in payment of 145m shares to Pacific Trends Resources].
08/07/22. Bromus mining rights expire.
Q4/22. Bulk Mine decline commences. [1200m deep / 8km long].
10/22. Byrnecut contract for first decline terminates.
12/22. Option period to buy 5%, ends.
01/11/23. Panorama mining rights expire.
Q2/23. Exploration decline and ventilation shafts complete.
Q4/23. Sub Level Open Stoping (SLOS) construction commences.
Q1/24. SLC first Ore. First cash flow.
Q3/26. Block Cave Mine (BCM) construction begins (access and ventilation shafts).
2028. BCM production. (SLC and Bulk Mining, operating in tandem).
2033. Stoping estimated end of life based on:(13Mt/2MozAuEq/2Mt/yr).
2035. Stoping estimated end of life based on:(26Mt/2.9MozAuEq/3Mt/yr).
2053+. BCM estimated end of life.

Z

to all decent folk on here. A peaceful and prosperous 2022.
Back from the sun and catching up on the last 2 weeks.
Time for the roadmap because we are entering possibly the busiest period @ GGP for some considerable time. I hope you won't mind if I "air my thoughts" with you......
Z

Good morning lennyhan - I believe this is a standard letter/email sent to all prospective customers of Sprott. The letters are tweaked to reflect current news. I think we discussed this in detail around 12 to 18 months ago, too. I think then, he gave me a rating of 3 for GGP.
Best
Z

I’ll be sure to tell the care worker looking after my father…whose husband died from omicron on New Year’s Eve.

A very merry Christmas, a peaceful and prosperous new year to a load of fantastic posters on here. Toooo much to take in and read currently. Will digest after chrimbo!
Atleast we can relax a little after recent events and mentally prepare for a bumper Q1 in 2022.
Love you all!
Z

Bitcoin is banned outright in 23 countries. In countries such as canda/us/uk there are strict regulations under counterterrorism rules about bitcoin transcactions.
The 'currency' has no regulatory jurisdiction which makes it a perfect medium for crime and consequently cannot and will not be acceptable as a direct competitor to FIAT. Only one country in the world has accepted bitcoin as its currency (El Salvador).
Three major 'entities' however, are and have been trialling and testing the future currency to replace FIAT: China with the (renminbi), EU (digital Euro) and the UK (digital GBP): all of these CBDC's will eventually overtake/takeover from FIAT.
My bank is a virtual bank, has been for over 25 years.......
Don't confuse CBDC with Crypto, Chalk and cheese.
Remember...unless big brother can control cash.......it is never going to be accepted by central banks of a sovereign country.
Z

Jambo, I see that the deputy governor of the BoE has warned that crypto could become worthless:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/dec/14/bitcoin-could-become-worthless-bank-of-england-warns
Z