Member Info for zoros

WOW! SAS.......big numbers me old!
Life isn't like that though is it? One could argue that the rest of Hav is a dud after a spectacular MRE2?
Remember this...is anyone going to look back years from now and say..feck me lads, the mine is currently worth (let's say) 5Bn and we sold 70% of it to NCM of $70million (or whatever we "gave" Hav away for).
Life's a ***** and then you die.

I suggest you brace yourself for the valuation SAS, it could make your eyes water....and not for good reasons!
Z

MJ - have you filtered me ;)
Z

Notrader - spoilsport!
Z

ben - who exactly is taking GGP's macap as the valuation factor?
99% of investors surely understand it is the mine not the company valuation.
Z

Dunposting - these trades are the trades from the lickle children belonging to the LTH's who have been spending their pocket money.
Z

Care to comment about my valuation, please?
Z

SAS - chill babes. No need to get angry with posters trying their best.
I do agree with you, though, the 5% can't be based on todays NPV for obvious reasons....the data is way out of date!
This is why the MRE2 is critical to the valuation.
A part of me wants to explode with excitement about the SP at the end of february, another part of me is asking.......can the SP rise 80% on the news???

Fun and games
Z

Wow, been biking today,
"what a beautiful day.
Nothing's gonna stop me now.
Oh,,,no."
(Who sang that?).

Meanwhile back at the ranch, everyone is chewing the fat about the old chestnut: FMV.......
In particular, the 5% valuation figure. So I bring this calculation to you (one in particular: Mumbo Jumbo) and I ask that you constructively dismantle my theory:

By the time the assessments are made by NCM/GGP regarding fair value for the 5%, each will have in their possession ALL of the MRE2 results. They may even have even more advanced data on Hav (but this isn't taken into account below). Because we are all second guessing the outcome at this stage, I have taken the intel from the two brokers calling the shots regarding the outcome of the MRE2 simply because they are nearer the action than anyone else I know.....right?
So please stay with me on this arithmetic journey and then feel free to dismiss it at your leisure:

Firstly, NCM/GGP are working out fair value for 5% of the MINE, not GGP's share.
2 x brokers are saying the MRE2 should elevate the SP to 25p 9round figures).
This will make GGP worth 4.2Bn (shares) x 25p. This equals: 1.05Bn.
GGP (at this point in time) will own 30% of the mine, making the mine: £3.5Bn (GBP).
5% of the mine: £175mn.

What I have done here is make the starting point for negotiations: £175mn and this is taking what is formally known to exist underground, post MRE2.
Whether the valuation takes into account future prospects,,,nobody knows.
Now, ironically this £175mn happens to coincide with Canaccords: $220mn....how strange!

IM humble O......£175mn HAS to be the starting point if GGP is to receive a fair valuation for their 5% of the mine. The future 25% will of course have to be valued using the then parameters, probably after a series of MRE;s have been produced, all the way to the DFS.

So by the time GGP pays back their $50mn debt and also pays/sets aside the Capex for the starter mine ($73mn), GGP will have a kewl £85 million pounds to add to their existing £16 making a wopping £100mn+ green drinking vouchers in the bank ready for egional exploration....wey hey!

Mumbo - I take people at face value and I believe you 'appear' to be an OK chappie (at this stage). I think it's essential to challenge us LTH's (probably all of us by now!) to keep the conversation fresh and sane. I would welcome your views on the above.

Z

We are approaching possibly the busiest reporting period for this share - ever, over the next 10 weeks.

Scally Assays are overdue (Dec'21).

Next Wednesday night:
NCM December quarterly results.
[12 Assays due (SE Cresc (infill and growth), N and E breccia, NW Pod, Zipa].

16/02/22.
NCM Half Year results. (Possibly MRE2 results included*).
NCM December Mineral and Ore Resource report? (might be the 10/2).
5% valuation - initial agreement date. (30 days to agree fair value).
Option to purchase 5% valid until Dec 2022.

11/03/22.
NCM March Interim Exploration Report.

Q1/22.
*MRE(2)(Inferred) for extended SE Crescent and breccia / N. breccia zone. In addition - MRE(Indicated) uprated.
GGP ESG report due.

Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs

Z

Quades, of course he has no children, who in their right mind would propagate his malignant line!
Z

John, I'll take my 5yr return, if that is OK:
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=ggp+share+chart
Works out at 700% / yr.
A tad higher than 80%, don't you think?
Best
Z

CD - ignorant, I guess is the only way to describe you.
Ignorant of the facts.
Novx has a small team looking after him, they cater for his every needs. Yet his legal team failed to tell the border force that he had covid in December and was thus exempt from the aussie entry rules. This would have resolved it once and for all.
Oh - wait a minute, Novax went out on a public jaunt the day after testing positive, spreading the virus to all and sundry. Oh, hang on, he also lied on the entry visa about his travels, which his legal team conveniently kept quiet about. The latter carries a ban from said country and novax got a 3 year ban for that.
Slovenia are now looking to prosecute their own golden balls for breaking covid regs too.
The man's a dick and he deserves (a) a new legal team and (b) what he got from the aussie high court.

All we need now is for bojo to be sacked and "justice" will have been seen to be done across the board:
1. Novax - superstar - brought down to our level.
2. Andrew - aristocrat - brought down to our level.
3. Bojo - politician - brought down to our level.

Glad to see faith is being restored to society.....Fingers crossed Bojo goes very very soon, eh?
Z

Incontinence.
Z

CJ - hi. Again this was thrashed out fairly recently. You'll have to look back at previous posts.
Z

Hi Dip - good to talk.
Agree with all.
Other things to take into account......
NCM isn't a charity remember and if they want to get rid of GGP after production then they will, simply by making life very difficult for them.
IMO GGP will become a pain in NCM's neck once this goes to production and NCM may wish to pay them off.
I did hear though on ADVFN that NCM may well keep GGP onside and use whatever money they would have spent on buying out GGP for other purposes. Accepting that 25% of all the profits coming from Hav will have to go to GGP.
NCM owns all the infastructure - the mine, tolling. processing etc......and this could theoretically become quite expensive if NCM want to ruffle some feathers.
I keep looking through GGP's (redesigned) website occasionally hunting for any subtle changes and I have yet to find any reference to GGP being described and a miner. In fact.....everything but. I'm surprised no-one has asked of GGP are going to become miners. I suspect they are not.
Z

GoGreen - the subject of NCM buying out the remaining 25% of GGP @ Hav, has been thrashed to death on this forum only recently. It would be remiss of me to regurgitate it all again!
Z

Kevin - it's a double edged sword, methinks (when to announce the MRE2).
Promulgate it soonest and the 5% valuation will certainly be based on this - advantage GGP.
Advertise it much later, NCM might be able to bid low for the 5% in the absence of the MRE2.

The longer it takes for the MRE2, the better for us because the drill cutoff date extends giving more data for the JORC results.

NCM will decide when to advertise the MRE2. It is publicised, then Sandeep pushes out an RNS and podcast and the following morning, GGP push out an RNS followed by SD being interviewed by one of the mining channels.

Finally...when will all this happen?

Two massively 'pregnant' dates coming up:

1. 27/01/22. NCM December quarterly results.
[12 Assays due (SE Cresc (infill and growth), N and E breccia, NW Pod, Zipa].

2. 16/02/22. NCM Half Year results. (Possibly MRE2 results included*).
5% valuation initial agreement date. 30 day validation period.

It is my personal opinion that the MRE2 will piggy back one of these dates. I am going for the latter.
Z

Daniel - everyone's hoping for the max, obviously.
As mentioned before, if we use the brokers NPV after a find of 10Moz @ MRE2, of 25p, then Havieron will theoretically be worth £3.5Bn. making 5%: £GBP 175m.
In the perfect world, as has been mentioned earlier today, other aspects of Hav (ie: future resource growth, market value of PM's and BM's, additional finds such as nickel etc), need to be taken into consideration as well.
The chances that NCM's valuation and GGP's valuation are the same is virtually zero. An indy will assess the 5%NPV using ValMin guidelines and this figure has to be agreed to by both parties if it gets to this stage and IF NCM wishes to take up the option to buy the 5%. They have until Dec 2022 to comply.

Dip: I don't think SD will ever sell GGP, which (IMO) is why he is building his team. He will / could however, sell one of his assets, one of them possiby Hav. He doesn't need shareholder permission to sell the remaining share in Hav.
He needs 75% shareholder permission to sell GGP.
[That is mt understanding].
Best
Z
Z

As Micky says, they’d be trading the living daylights out of this share if rumours were rife about a bid. The SP would go thru the roof temporarily.
Z

We have,,,,all of us.
Z