Member Info for zoros

Apols for the delay, been catching up on "Fauda" with my son who is home for a while!
Listen......you've unnerved me a little. I can spot a 'mole' (a plant, a sleeper) a mile off in real life but it's harder for obvious reasons to do so on a forum. On initial inspection your posts appear to carry kudos due to your knowledeable technical bias and your concise and disarming approach. So I have run with them. But our comms regarding this latest topic (Recent transactions on the 10-20Moz range) have put me on 'low' alert.
Front and centre, bracketing me in any shape or form with BiggL raises my hackles.
Not once...never... has he posted anything remotely acceptable or accurate. We all know that, We all know he is here for one reason. I am therefore surprised with your support for him. Petejh I know little or nothing about to date, so I cannot comment.
You afford a disproprtionate degree of affirmation for my thoughts on this topic we talk about.......another worrying factor :)
I feel like you are quietly "reeling me in". Picking me off. Splitting the forum.
I'm not paranoid...it just feels like there is a cluster of n'er do wells here determined to unsettle the majority.
Let's see where this takes us eh? The jury is still out.
Certainly no disrespect intended, of course.
Z

Hi Rome -
"...the only sensible / logical move from Ggp perspective is to sell the company not the asset...."
Do you actually mean that the whole of GGP should be bought out...lock stock and barrel?
Z

Thanks SB.
Who knows what goes on in the boardroom?
The variables are multiple are they not?
I am not an M and A person by any stretch of the imagination but one has to have a starting point!
And 25p after 10Moz declared from the rest of the 54Mt (plus more possibly dependent on the growth drilling) is a very very good starting point.
Let the show begin.
Z

I know my view my not be a popular view but it needs to be put out there.
I completely understand your alternative views guys......time will tell.
I just have difficulty understanding why NCM would allow GGP to hang around picking up the benefits but not contributing....once production starts.
Z

I am an advocate for the sale of GGP(Hav only) by CoP 2022, maybe Q1/23.
I agree with TimberTrader in this respect.
One of the Q's I ask myself is: what contribution will GGP be making (at Hav) once Hav is in production?
GGP are a mining development and exploration company - those words directly lifted from their website. Words carefully chosen, methinks, for a reason. They are not, nor do they pretend to be a miner in the making. They explore (that is a given) and they develop mines - endex.
Between now and CY23/24 (production of the early starter mine) , they have no intention of growing from 17 strong to hundreds, maybe over a thousand staff, machinery, logistics, legal etc etc.
SD will part with Hav for the right price and this will finance his ambitions to move onto future discoveries,,,,,,,rinse and repeat.
Great for the PI if he is allowed by NCM to stay for the show (as a minor partner) by keeping the remaining 25% and also great if we get bought out beforehand, at a premium.
Boom we win and boom we lose!

Anyone of the view that GGP will become a future major? It has happened in the past.
Z

You're a big woman "bubbles"
Onwards and Upwards......
Z

Agree 100% Timbertrader.
To be honest, Havieron IS GGP, they have nothing else to show atm.
I too think end of this year at the latest. GGP will be free to move fwd with therest of their portfolio then.
Z

I was just wondering where you had gotten to, JS.
Welcome back old boy.
Z

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=GGP:LSE

Having glanced over this, I was reminded how fragile our 'arrangement' is currently - regarding our financials:
Look at the MCAP, the income, the staffing levels etc.....I forget sometimes that "relatively" GGP is, how shall I put it,,,,,,,,errr.......an expensive commodity, in the bigger picture.
The Gucci of Gold!
Z

Hey Bamps, what you've just described is the difference between an Investor and a Punter.
I guess it depends on how much you put in and how much you care if you lose it.
It is a very subjective issue.
Talk to me about your views on the throughput capacity of Telfer and the carrying capacity of the early stage decline.......
please!
Z

I agree Welsh Falcon, 100%. All eyes should be on the starter mine and what it brings to the party.
How many of us will still be chatting away about the BUM, in 2027/8, I wonder.....yawn.
More to the point..will GGP still have Havieron on its assets list by then!
Z

I also think road trains from Hav to Telfer for the starter mine will soon reach saturation point. I suspect a new plan to transport the resource is already in train(pun). IMO it will be a 55Km conveyer belt!
The decline also has its limits due to its dimensions and limited passing places. Work to resolve this must be in hand too.
Z

Telfer is configured currently for a maximum throughput of 22Mt/yr but only for certain resources.
It was designed originally to take 24Mt using the two trains, each catering for different resource consistencies.
The "starter mine" @ Hav is planned for a meagre 2Mt/yr. This (it is expected) will rise to 3Mt later but again from the starter mine (SLOS), comencing circa CY23/24.
I suspect NCM will be happy to supplement the extra capacity @ Telfer by charging others in the immediate vicinity to use their processing plant, whilst still drip feeding from their declining telfer mine output.
When the Bulk Underground Mine (BUM) starts in earnest (circa 2028), the throughput @ Telfer will ramp up enormously. They are already talking of 6mt/yr to start with maybe increasing to 11Mt/yr in full production.....who knows.
Telfer will need modifying to accomodate such a change. Telfer would also need modifying if it was to process the "nickel" people are now talking about.
NCM will already be discussing this with their engineers going fwd.
A new processing planty starts at around $US500Bn.......ouch.
Z

Morning all. Trapped indoors with all this torrential rain, this am.
Bamps - good to see you out and about, mon ami.
Regarding your comment about not responding to your "nickel" post.....
Don't take this the wrong way but sometimes you might not realise that you are talking to many laypersons on this forum and the language you use is quite specific (gologically speaking). I wonder if you think the rest of us have the same understanding of the subject as you do?
It is probably music to another gologists ears - what you have to say but for the proletariat, it is occasionally 'japanese'.
I say this kindly and wish no disrespect, P.
Would it be possible to post your technical appraisals by dumbing down the long and chemical words for us mere earthlings perhaps?
Enjoy your wet weekend!
Z

Afternoon SB.
I'll play..................

The Regis model looks the closest to our current predicament [10Moz coming in from the MRE2 and 30% up for grabs ).
GGP would get £460M for the full 30% sell off. This equates to 11p a share.

And I think this is what you are steering us towards, aren't you? IE: a pitiful amount?

Now working with the same 'base' figures but from a different angle perhaps:
(10Moz from the MRE2 and 30% sell off)
Brokers suggest GGP (HAV actually - because outside Hav, to date nothing worth its salt has been found yet, so 'nil' attached to regionals) is worth 25p per share. Let's assume the SP for GGP(hav) is @ 25p after the MRE2. This makes the mine in its entirety worth £3.5Bn. GGP would be worth just over a billion.
NCM and GGP both know there is a LOT more there @ Hav than 10+Moz. And each time another MRE is published throughout the 4 stages of development, the resource grows and the price to sell to NCM will grow. So it is encumbent upon GGP to keep NCM at bay for as long as possible.
There will come a time however, when GGP cannot defend themselves to ever growing bids by NCM (or for that matter a.n. other), so (IMO) I would expect GGP to capitulate at or around the DFS (Q4/22). By then I would expect a conservative resource of around 20Moz give or take.
[The completion of the decline will make for more and better targetted assays at depth, so the results could escalate].
The leads me to infer that the SP on fundamentals alone, will be around the 40 - 50p range (Twice that at the MRE2 stage).
I also expect a premium to be added to this, of around 40 to 50%. To take into account future 'finds' by NCM. Overall I would expect GGP to sell Hav for between 60 - 75p, with some confidence.
To underscore my 'thinking' the following would have to happen:
GGP sells the early 5% for a minimum of £175/oz.
The MRE2 must be > 10MozAu.
DFS must be this year. (Time is of the essence).
PoG > $US1700.
GGP keeps NCM at bay until DFS.

Views?

Z

"... From report, "We have reviewed the copper projects database within slightly revised parameters and find that there are 65 development and exploration projects with resources of more than 2.0Mt contained copper and we believe that only 23 of these have the potential to involve third party M&A activity and we conclude that there are just five projects with a ‘High’ possibility of a third-party involvement. These are: Cascabel, Viscachitas, Casino, Costa Fuego, and Santo Tomás."..."
Stick that in your diverse book and smoke it.
Z

Dave - so you use my name in frustration against Hydrogen, believing I won't see it because I have filtered you? You then discredit me about shorting from some historic post I made.
What sort of a person are you?
No hard feeling on my part, you understand(not).
Z

dave007 = your 1634, why was it targetted at me
Z

We're also in the Kipper Season on the FTSE, did you know ;)
Z

Could be Scally assays RNS tomoz?
Strudel - any sat info over Scally?
Z