Member Info for zoros

The webcast is an oldie because DC states the PFS will be ON TRACK for Q2 this year……. And look what we have here: another white lie at the time!
The other dodgy comment is that he states they should have no issues with machinery and trucks going forward because cascabel is a deep mine. Really?
What about the open pit starter mine at alpaca possibly and T Americas- definitely?
Gonna. Need trucks there Darryl, you little tinker!
Z

Morning Sprout - waiting 6 years for a mine to go to production is not nerve racking.
NCM is doing all the heavy lifting and SD is travelling the world tweaking his business case.
Drills are drilling, decline is declining, ore is expanding!
Term sheets and the pesky 5% clause is all that remains before all the ducks line up for production.
Sweet.
Z

OMG - well done Cookiescrew - first post that was worth reading after 10 years. Take the rest of the day off old boy.
Go fishing even.
Z

No future buyer cares one jot about how many 'parties' own a company or its resource, if they want it they simply bid at a very attractive price and voila - job done.
after years of watching this sloath of a stock tread water, most shareholders would sell up if say 80p was offered, without blinking.
Diverse books are theoretical settings which have little effect in real life,
Z

Sean. I hope the topic “boom” isn’t linked to the fact that you might have a gun in the house also!!
Cheer up mate , we’re getting a new prime minister!

This is what will happen: Solg will spike to 35p again this summer, you and I will sell out of frustration and a week later they’ll sell for 88p!
You know what they say: if you couldn’t take a joke you shouldn’t have joined!
Best
Z

Hi Ben - my thoughts:

6.5MozAuEq in the bag now, Next "news" that I hope will move the dial is the Newcrest MRE(2).
On June 30th they completed a years worth of drilling @ Hav: 90Km!!!
Mind blowing exploration programme costing an absolute fortune but reaping the benefits.
Assays will take 6+ weeks from this date which is why the results won't be known formally (and then promulgated) until the NCM MR and OR report in August.
NCM have a reputation for being very conservative, we've seen this with their purposeful absence of the GGP(MRE2) results and their PoG and PoCu figures.
IMO - we will see a conservative approach to an increasing MRE in the range of 8-9MozAuEq this August.
In December (DFS), I expect this to creep up inexorably towards 10MozAuEq.
These figures reflect what all the brokers have suggested from the outset (10Moz+) at calendar year end.[DFS].

How will this be reflected in the SP?

Brokers say: 26p.

Can the SP climb from 10p to 20p+ in just 6 short months? :o

20MozAuEq........It's in the runes for definite.
How long?
The decline will expedite drill assays for the ever expanding motherlode but we're looking a minimum of 2+ years.
Probably MRE(6+)! By then we'll be building 2 x block caves alongside the SLOS and looking at decades of successful mining @Hav.

Question is: will GGP still be along for the ride?
(AIMO).
Z

Following mining optimisation studies, the production profile for the Cascabel
project is based on a capacity of 25Mtpa, fed by the underground block cave at
Alpala. The project is expected to reach nameplate capacity in the fourth year
from the start of process plant operations with first ore expected in mid-2029.
The initial Mineral Reserve represents only 21% of Measured and Indicated
Resources tonnes and approximately 38% of contained metal, providing
significant opportunity for conversion of further M&I Resources in time. This is
likely a reflection of the technical work required to add subsequent caves to the
current operation which would add little to today’s NPV and IRR due to their time
horizon, but which may otherwise have delayed the study. As such, SOLG
estimates there is potential to extend the mine life by in excess of 50 years (76
total). This could be accompanied by a modular expansion in processing capacity
to >30Mtpa, supporting a longer peak production profile as grades begin to
decline around year 9...."

Really, truly, the end!
Z

"...Whilst TAM has potential to add cream to Alpala’s NPV, we believe the benefits go
beyond our hypothetical mine plan. In our modelled scenario, with TAM giving
way to Alpala’s higher grade feed from FY30 and reduced to nil in FY31, there
remains potential to extract a further 254Mt @ 0.29% CuEq based on Indicated
material within the updated MRE. This could provide flexibility and cash flow
‘insurance’ as the block cave develops. TAM’s underground mineralisation also
appears promising and we believe is likely to grow substantially from the current
resource (Indicated: 172.0Mt @ 0.35% CuEq and Inferred: 69.4Mt @ 0.36%
CuEq)...."
Z

"...TAM open-pit mineral inventory could boost NPV…

Whilst TAM was not included in the Alpala PFS, we believe the deposit shows
clear potential for eventual incorporation into the mine plan at this early stage.
SolGold has also planned work including assessment of potential near-surface
mining options at the Cascabel project. The premise appears compelling with
production able to be brought forward and reduced funding risk, in our view, as
TAM offers cashflow whilst SolGold initiates the cave at Alpala. We therefore
model a conceptual scenario below to highlight potential upsides (based on our
updated 25Mtpa operation). Capital expenditure is assumed to commence in
FY25 (in-line with our Alpala only model) and an additional ~US$250m of
growth capex is estimated, including US$80m of pre-production mining at TAM,
in line with other near-surface porphyry projects in Latam.
We then leverage TAM’s higher-grade outcropping zone containing 28.0Mt @
0.43% CuEq and 10.5Mt @ 0.55% CuEq to kickstart production in FY27, ramping
up into a complimentary mine schedule with Alpala in FY30. Recoveries are
estimated as in-line with Alpala at 87% for Cu and 77% for Au and opex costs are
assumed flat with lower open pit mining costs offset by an uptick in transport
costs to the Alpala hosted plant. The result would be a US$239m increase in our
Jun’23E NPV to US$3,598m...."
Z

"...Aladdin’s cave: By-product production will make Alpala one of the
world’s largest gold mines…
Whilst no surprise given the 21.7Moz gold contained in M&I Resource grading
0.25 g/t Au, Alpala is set to produce an exceptional 7.6Moz of by-product gold on
the initial PFS mine plan. Production is expected to peak at 829koz and average
680koz per annum in the first five years following initial cave ramp up. This
would place the project within the top 15 gold mines by production worldwide
based on 2021 figures, and the third largest in Latin America. We believe the
significant by-product output will likely prove advantageous project financing
discussions, with potential to issue a precious metal stream or royalty...."

Next Step:
"...SolGold is currently progressing additional optimisations to be included in a PFS
Addendum, slated for H2 CY22, ahead of completion of the DFS, expected in H2
CY23. Engagement with the relevant government departments is anticipated from
Q2 CY22 to commence fiscal discussions and the permitting process. This could
lead to a potential construction start in Q4’24 and first ore in 2029 in an Alpalaonly scenario. SOLG has a cash position of US$58.4m (Feb’22) to progress its
studies; at a guided cash burn rate of US$70 – 80m per annum, additional
funding is likely required prior to publication of the FS...."
Z

"...Specific tax incentives at Solaris’ Warintza project include a 5% reduction of
income tax, fixing the income tax rate applicable to the Company at 20%,
exemption from the capital outflow tax, as well as the exemption of all import
duties for the import of goods needed for new investments in the Project. SolGold
itself announced an initial IPA in November 2021. The agreement included
investment intentions as well as tax stability for 15-years and international
arbitration in London if there are any disputes in relation to the Cascabel Project.
We would expect to see an updated IPA in early 2024, with the current agreement
covering planned investments through to the end of 2023 which would be aptly
timed with the upcoming Feasibility Study. The expected 3,000-person strong
camp is also a significant source of skilled employment within the area...."
Z

"....Ecuador has been subject to civil unrest in recent weeks, sparked by indigenous
group protests surrounding the cost-of-living crisis. On Thursday the government
agreed to concessions including a 15c cut in fuel price. The government also
pledged to cancel an executive decree to increase oil output, and change a mining
decree spurring development to add additional environmental protections and to
respect archaeological remains. Whilst the situation appears delicate, Ecuador has
made significant strides towards attracting FDI in mining projects. The country
has risen from a score of 45 (2015) to 73 (2021) on the Mining Investment
Attractiveness Index according to the Fraser Institute, surpassing Chile (69) and
Peru (61).
Several Ecuadorian explorers have announced work towards Investment
Protection Agreements (IPA) with the Government of Ecuador in the past weeks
including Solaris Resources and Adventus Mining. The IPA provides a foundation
of certainty with respect to the legal framework governing future projects,
including stable mining regulations, security of title and investment for the term
of the agreement, as well as new tax incentives to accelerate development. ..."
Z

"....Alpala now contributes ~US$2.3bn to our SOTP based on 85% ownership and a
target P/NPV of 0.8x our ~US$3.4bn DCF (as at Jun’23E). We add a further
US$72m assuming 0.3x our ~US$240m DCF for the conceptual inclusion TAM.
We then include US$150m for SolGold’s regional portfolio including US$75m
for Porvenir and adjust for net cash and outstanding options and warrants to
derive a GBp85/sh target, implying ~200% upside. SOLG has a cash position of
US$58m (Feb’22) to but we note that at a cash burn of US$70-80m pa
additional funds will likely be required during H2’22...."

END
Z

"....SOLG is assessing optimisations that will be included in a PFS Addendum due in
H2 CY22, in preparation for the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) planned for
completion in H2 CY23. This is likely to include upside which we believe could
be unlocked through a satellite open pit at TAM. Our conceptual scenario
estimates TAM could bring forward first output from the Alpala plant by two
years, enhancing the NPV by US$240m whilst also providing flexibility and
derisking the Alpala cave operation. The Alpala Mineral Reserve is another
avenue of upside, currently representing only 21% of Measured and Indicated
Resource tonnes and ~38% of contained metal. Inclusion of additional material
could see the throughput jump to over 30Mtpa by adding another module,
though follow-on caves are beyond the scope of key technical work at this stage.
Enhanced fiscal terms could be agreed in an updated IPA (early 2024), with
Solaris Resources recently announcing a 5% reduction in income tax to 20%
amongst other incentives, setting precedent and providing further confidence in
Ecuador for FDI..."
cont'd

".....The PFS initial mine plan targets the Alpala high grade core within one cave,
with copper grades expected to average over 0.75% (~1.35% CuEq) within the
first 10 years of production. As a result of strong by-product contribution and
highly productive bulk mining methods, Alpala enjoys low cash costs of
US$(0.40)/lb Cu and AISC of US$0.06/lb Cu on a post by-product basis. This
places the project well within the first decile of the global copper cost curve
(according to WoodMac 2032 estimates). Within this is an exceptional negative
AISC average of US$(1.38)/lb in first five years from achieving nameplate
capacity (190ktpa Cu, 680kozpa Au and 1.3Mozpa Ag average annual production
in that period). These quantities would place Alpala within the top 15 and 30
projects globally for gold and copper production respectively (vs. 2021 global
production figures), and in the top ranks of undeveloped junior held projects...."
cont'd

"....The revisions to our estimates follow release of PFS results on 20th April and the
technical report filing on 1
st June. Key changes include a reduction in throughput
to 25Mtpa vs. 30Mtpa in our previous, pre-PFS model, as the study “right-sized”
the project to a robust base case compared to the 50Mtpa PEA. Reserves of
558Mt @ 0.58% Cu & 0.52 g/t Au (vs. our previous 959Mt assumption) offer a
25-year mine life (vs. 33-years). We also tweak assumed royalties in-line with
the PFS, increasing the Franco-Nevada royalty rate to 1.27% (from 1.00%) due to
production provisions in the agreement, and reducing the government royalty
rate to a flat 3% vs. 5-8% previously. Assuming prices of US$8,500/t Cu and
US$1,850/oz Au, this generates life-of-mine EBITDA of US$27bn and FCF of
US$14bn, giving a 4.2-year payback and an NPV8% of US$3.4bn at Jun’23E (or
US$3.6bn immediately pre-capex), a ~30% like-for-like cut vs. previous H&Pe. ..."

cont'd

".....We have updated our valuation for SolGold (“SOLG”) following the filing of the
Cascabel PFS technical report. The changes result in a US$3.6bn NPV8% and
22% IRR (immediately pre-capex) at US$8,500/t Cu and US$1,850/oz Au,
driving a modest cut in our target to 85p/sh (Jun’23E) from 101p. Nonetheless,
we view this as a solid base case, with tangible potential upside through:
inclusion of the open-pit Tandayama-America (“TAM”) deposit 3km away;
additional caves and throughput capacity to capture the remaining 79% of M&I
tonnes outside the 26-year PFS mine plan; capex efficiencies; and positive tax
regime changes within an Investment Protection Agreement (IPA) for extraction. ..."

cont'd

Velo - what the hell are you on about?
I simply said the two named publications are comics. One is bot driven using web crawlers to amass intel before spewing it out as their own after they have embellished it. The other is and always has been pumping out contradictory b ollox on the same day for years!
Welsh Falcon summarised it beautifully. RA also.
Digest what you read from these two comics - at your peril.
Z

Motley Fool
Simply Wall Street.

allegedly......
Z

If you want feedback on Santorini: zoros@mail.com
Best
Z