RE: Hannam update27 May 2022 10:11
Valuation: GBp101/sh target price implies 225% upside
While we await the filing of the NI 43-101 technical report for the Alpala PFS,
due in ~10 days, we maintain our current valuation based on a 30Mtpa block
cave operation with an 8% WACC, US$8,500/t copper price and US$1,850/oz
gold price. This generates a ~US$4.23bn NPV on H&Pe and provides a
~US$2.85bn contribution to our SOTP (based on 85% ownership and 0.8x target
P/NPV). We add US$150m for SolGold’s vast regional portfolio and adjust for
net cash and outstanding options and warrants, to derive a GBp101/sh target,
implying 225% upside. On a like-for-like basis using the PFS assumptions of
US$7,934/t Cu and US$1,700/oz Au, our model implies a ~US$3.5bn NPV,
exceeding the ~US$2.9bn PFS NPV, with a similar IRR (21% H&Pe vs 19.3%
PFS). This gap is largely explained by the lower throughput and slightly higher
capital intensity, partially offset by better grades, as outlined in the PFS press
release on 20th April.
end
Z