Food for thought3 Feb 2023 17:11
Been thinking about the quote(s) from "The Australian" recently, ergo - a sale of Hav/Telfer by NCM. It's a long shot but an interesting one.
I'm thinking - Telfer and Hav owes NCM atleast $500m (recent overhauls / extensions / construction, etc), to date..........and counting, as we progress towards the FS / next MRE(2).
IF......and it's a massive IF, NCM really do want to unwind from Aussie - using Hav as the starting point, then why not?
All they need to do is publish the next (uprated) MRE and advertise for all to see that there is a significant amount of gold down there, complete the FS and voila, the value of Hav doubles.
So let's say NCM spends a total of circa $750m by the time all of this is completed - what price would they sell for, to get their money back / make a profit for their shareholders / start their exit from the region? $1Bn, $1.5Bn? Maybe even $2Bn for Hav and Telfer?
This could be sufficient bait for another major to take it on.
And who do we have on the doorstep - Fortescue Metals might be front and centre for this, in the shape of Wyloo.
If Wyloo gets Hav, it will own just shy of 80% of it (NCM's 70% plus Wyloos existing 9% of GGP shares).
Now does FM (Wyloo) buy out this remaining 20% and remove GGP completely,
or
does FM (Wyloo) incorporate GGP as their operating arm @ Hav/Telfer and get SD to do another Northern Star again?
Food for thought. Or should I say: Pie in the sky?
Z