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I’m sure I’ve seen this earlier by another poster. Apologies for forgetting the name.
I, too, have come to the conclusion that overcoming this last and lower aquifer ( albeit it just another easily resolved geological hurdle), provides NEM with a natural hiatus in activity to divest from Hav. A reason to throttle back on construction costs with the decline.
External works might continue such as roads and supporting infrastructure but NEM (imo) will almost certainly focus on the rest of their portfolio elsewhere.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new mining manager running Hav as we come out of the aquifer in Q3/24.
(Wyloo/GGP/other).
Cessation of the decline commenced Dec ‘23, it doesn’t take 8+ months to break through? There’s another reason for extending the suspension of the decline, methinks.
Lots of meetings, lots of calculations needed between now and end of the UK summer - but by then we will have much more certainty.
I continue to believe in GGP.and their BoD’s
Z
My questions were actually put to SD and for that, I am grateful. The response was as expected, given SD’s sensitive circumstances, so ambiguity prevailed but enough was stated to provide me with a slightly clearer picture of the time line…
The dewatering of the final aquifer should be complete in H2/24. Being optimistic, I am projecting Q3/24. Once they break through this layer, he expects the remaining rock stratum to be excellent for drilling. The incline falls at 7 degrees with a vertical depth of 80m to go. This means we have approx 660m of decline remaining. Based on SD’s description of the quality of rock and my interpretation of previous decline average daily progress- I am going to assume 6m/day (which is above the average - to date).
This gives me 110 days of drilling and blasting from recommencement of the decline post aquifer. This places us mid Q4 on arrival @ the motherlode.
Ore will be extracted at this stage (production ore) and stockpiled for 6 months in preparation for feeding the processing plant at Telfer . Mass production of processed ore will then commence circa Q2/25 (FCF?).
(The SLOS will need to be constructed once the decline arrives at the motherlode in mid Q4 and this entails a further decent of approx 500m to fully establish a working SLOS mine running at approx 3mt/ annum).
Views appreciated.
Z
Hi Sharketmare and MH01
I genuinely believe SD 'is' happy with the way things are going - for one.
But there is no way on earth he is going to release market sensitive info tomorrow - in a town hall to a couple of dozen PI's (IMO).
I also believe it will take weeks if not months for NEM to divest their 6 target mines of which Hav/Tel is one.
That is my concern - in that this deliberation could slug the whole production process.
I still think there will be a fairytale ending - I just need to get my head around "how much longer".
Impatient - no. Uncertain - yes. (Markets don't like uncertainty, neither do I).
Best wishes to you both and thanks for your help if you can SM!
Z
I can’t make these unique occasions as I spend a lot of time over here in Malaga with the family business.
So I rely heavily on genuine LTH’s giving feedback .
In advance therefore - thank you very much for giving up your time to attend and for bringing the rest of us up to speed.
From my perspective, I am not expecting ‘breaking news’- wrong place and wrong time. I’m expecting what has already been said on the latest ‘ Sunday roast’, in reality.
But if any (attending) kind soul would consider asking some/any of the following questions- I’d be most grateful to hear SD’’s response:
1. How long does SD consider it will take for NEM to formally advertise Hav/Tel “For Sale”?
2. Could NEM delay/ postpone the FS as a consequence of this imminent sale?
3. Will this have a knock on effect regarding the D2M?
4. Can GGP afford both the purchase price of Hav/Tel AND the projected production costs for the SLOS?
And finally……
Is the sale of GGP@ Hav ( at the right price) still on the table?
Many thanks.
Z
Callum’s sitting on 110,000,000 shares. He’s obviously spoken to SD or his team off the radar to check if he’s safe .
As a reminder we have 3 choices:
1. Sell.
2. JV with another major.
3. Buy the lot.
Which of those has Callum got his sights on?
Z
I think the links SuePud has flagged - covers most if not all bases. One of these will mature.
If (as the link suggests), Telfer and NEM's 70% of Hav is indeed worth $600m......isn't it convenient that the Bank(s) have already offered $220m collateral to GGP??? SD saw this coming last year.
No wonder he has a permanent smile on his face ;)
Z
Assuming GGP owned the lot @ Hav: {Based on latest MRE(3)).
3g/t @ 3Mt/yr through the SLOS. (31 grammes to the ounce). Gold @ £1000/oz after overheads. (recovery rates/aisc's).
£300m/yr.
The big unknown is how much GGP will have to payback every year to its debtors...............but the maths look good.
Z
Option 1: JV with Newmont @ Hav - gone.
[Newmont definition of Tier 1:
Asset defined as +500k GEOs/year consolidated, average AISC/oz in the lower half of the industry cost curve and a mine life >10 years in countries that are classified in the A and B rating ranges for each of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch.]
All staff contracts end in June 2024.....this decision has been on the cards for months IMO.
Option 2: GGP accept first refusal BUT only with the backing of Wyloo. JV with Wyloo (Fortescue).
Option 3: A major buys GGP (30%) out.
GGP can't afford to go it alone (too expensive) / BoD is Fortescue stock for a reason.
My money is on Option 2 [JV with Wyloo]. Roll on 5/3/24.
Stay calm and carry on mining..........
Z
Sellme your pencil - 13,000,000 shares are his for the taking. >1,000,000 bought personally.
Then he has 5,000,000 available as options.
and you moan about him not buying even more.
Why on god's earth would he spend another dollar on buying even more shares?
How many shares would you want him to buy - for YOU to be happy that he is "invested"?
Get a grip pencil.
Z
Afternoon Tiger - 'normally' I populate my roadmap with data from GGP / SD.
However, Bamps seems quite certain that the decline reaches the motherlode in Q3/24.
So I have made an exception and modified the old Q2 with the new Q3.
If we reach home by June 2024 - blame Bamps! :)
Z
sellmethis pen / poopylepew;
sd has bought over a million shares and given 12,000,000 shares by the company as an incetive if he completse his kpi's.
i also hasten to add he has options.
24/11/21 375,000 shares purchased.
https://*********************/newsfeed/article/greatland-gold-plc-results-of-placing-1465928
08/02/22 incentive award: 12,000,000 performance share rights. commencing 08/02/22, vesting for 3 years and then a 1 year retention period (total 4 years to 08/02/26) expiring after 10 years. kpi’s advertised in the annual report in 02/11/22.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/lse20220208122529_4265880/grant-of-performance-rights
24/08/22 714,000 shares purchased.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ggp/results-of-placing-rdiug654fukbqcs.html
surely that must cater for anyone's curiosity regarding his personal investment in ggp.
z
Afternoon Dip - hope you are well.
I tend to agree with your take on when NEM offer disclosure about the way ahead @ Hav/Telfer.
NCM (newcrest) continues to dig there (Hav) as planned (atleast until June 2024 - when all advertised contracts appear to stop??).
I would have expected a halt in activities if NEM had any intentions to divest itself from Hav in any way/shape or form.
The fact that they are still mining suggests they want to continue atleast 'as is'.
Having said that - there may have been a clause in the original JV stipulating a joint effort until June 2024 when a review might take place. We may never know.
Q2 is going to be busy, methinks.
Best
Z