Member Info for ZENGAS

Welcome back onboard Munchbox with your 100k buy yesterday at over 7p. What changed your mind from it being a 'scam' and 'next stop 5p' a month ago ?. Now don't be picking fights or blaming posters or other investors for your finger on the buy/sell button. Good luck and where ever you next exit here, i hope it makes you some decent cash.

Truth is hard to come by with you M/box so glad you agree with Swindon.
Well known i was in Bowleven well below 100p and it reached 430p in 2011. There was plenty of reasons to dyor, somethinhg you never do but always look for scapegoats for your own lack of being able to follow events. There's been an asset disposal, a special dividend of 15p last year as well to take in not to mention the fall off in 2014-15 giving todays price of 3p. You're meant to follow events as they happen good or bad to take what ever investment decisons you think fit - but there's no disguising someone like yourself who's a class one 'thorn' if you know what i mean.

As a number of others have pointed out elsewhere your made up stories on your lastest stocks and never backed by any reasonable research beggars belief with one getting 24 votes for calling you out mid week on your short term price target where he says " Call me a cynic but Munchbox you will be long gone before 23-24p" (BNM) and another "am afraid Muncbox that your comment "We DO NEED some decent news for the next leg up or it will be 30% up and then 30% down" really shows you have little understanding ".
As for Swindon41 - he also posted the factually incorrect on 3rd May "I fear your 200p is total fantasy. Just like GKP figures of 300p and 400p were a fantasy". - despite myself and 2-3 others telling him it reached 430p in 2012. He couldn't man up and admit/respond he was incorrect but turns up with another insight today, 4 weeks later comes back with his first post since.
You both are out, no one is asking you, Swindon or anyone to invest. If you don't like the posts that's your problems. I haven't seen either of you offer one single insight into the company prospects other than crticism of where the s/p is.

Incidentally the previous Numis guidance had 198p unrisked and that was only on part of the asset potential. How do they get away with it and all the other brokers - shows how out of touch, irrational and thick you are with any PI posting her/his thoughts on a bb. Grow up ladies.

Hang on a minute Swindon41, i never in any shape or form said "fill your boots" here or at Ptal - so please be honest to what you attribute.
As for Ptal - As it delivers to it's buyer - It's oil doesn't get delivered, sold and paid for on the main market , by up to 8-12 months. It continually delivers to it's buyer on a daily basis and they paid for the oil on that daily basis on the assumption that any shortfall when eventiually sold would be compensated for if prices were lower when ultimately sold on the main market- Likewise if the future price was greater than at present then Ptal benefiited further - so it worked both ways.
"When the oil is ultimately sold PetroTal will receive a valuation adjustment based on the actual price achieved by Petroperu, whether higher or lower".
With the sudden outbreak and onset of Covid 19 - oil prices raipdly cratered leaving a quick deficit of $42m as everything shut down which would have been completely unexpected for any company. This has reduced to $35m in 1 month and they expect prices to be stronger in Q3/Q4 when the oil is sold on the main market meaning the deficit of $35m may be greatly reduced. The pipeline is shut in due to health restrictions and expected to open next month.
The company went from an under 2,000 bopd producer to 15,000 in a year and a half and significantly increased it's reserves in that time. At $35/b brent reference it still makes a netback of $14/b which on 10-15,000 bopd is still $50m - $75m/yr and significant tax breaks.
In my view it's a short term kick where it hurts and has come about as the company aggressively spent on facilities etc to take production to 20,000 bopd which they had in their sights for the end of this year. It's one of the lowest cost oil producers around and on it's 47 mmbo P2 reserves at 10.25p it's valued at £69m/$86m or just $1.84 per P2 barrel. The RF is expected to be a lot more and in line with a minimum 24% which has already increased in the past 12 months - so implies a reasonable 80 mmbls P2 on the RF alone. Other analogue fields are showing 30-36% RF. In the meantime i'm happy to stick with it.

This is where a significant amount of growth could come from just through existing customers.
All this new power needs gas and we are one that has sufficient pipeline capacity of 600 mmcf/d and up to 240 mmcf/d processing and expandable.

We are supplying about 10% of the current 4500 MW that goes to the grid.
Calabar is around 450 MW current capacity though not always running at full dispatch.
We also supply Ibom and recently signed a deal with Afam power.
One of the big ones to watch (that we announced a deal with) is Alaoji which has a similar 450 MW current capacity - Save has said Alaoji and Calabar could do 225-270 mmcf/d at full dispatch for the commbined current 900 MW.
With the grid expansion by Siemens it's worth bearing in mind that Alaoji itself has a design capability of over 1,000 MW with the addition of further turbines that can be installed.
They won't need to build new p/stations in every case from scratch but expand those like Alaoji (where we have already signed an agreement) that have the design capability.
This why it's worth thinking about what's coming down the road in terms of what is reliable power.
Currently constrained at circa 4500 MW.
Year end/into next a near doubling to 7,000 MW.
In 3 years 11,000 MW growing out to 25,000 MW.
None of this growth potential has ever been factored in by any brokers beyond the current contract sizes.

Nigeria: Govt Directs Conclusion of Electricity Deal With Siemens
28 May 2020 By Emmanuel Addeh

Abuja — The federal government Wednesday directed the Ministries of Power, and Finance, Budget and National Planning as well as the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) to speed up the process of finalising the pre-engineering and concessionary financing agreement with Siemens AG, to rev up power supply in Nigeria.
President Muhammadu Buhari, during the signing of the power deal, had directed both teams from the company and their Nigerian counterparts to first focus on fixing the transmission and distribution infrastructure that had threatened Nigeria Electricity Supply Industry.
He said the goal was to achieve 7,000 megawatts of reliable power supply by 2021 and 11,000 megawatts by 2023 in phases one and two respectively, noting that after the transmission and distribution system bottlenecks have been fixed, the third and the final phase would be to drive generation capacity, and overall grid capacity to 25,000 megawatts.
In a series of tweets from the verified twitter page yesterday, the presidency noted that Siemens would singlehandedly pick the Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) partners for the sake of transparency.
The funding for the PPI will be secured under concessionary terms (up to three-year moratorium and 12-year repayment at concessionary interest rates) through the German Euler Hermes cover, which @NigeriaGov will on-lend as a convertible loan to the other shareholders in the DisCos.
"Under the PPI, @NigeriaGov will on behalf of the other shareholders in the electricity distribution companies invest in infrastructure upgrades in the form of improved payment systems, distribution substations, transformers, protection devices, smart meters, transmission lines," t
"The president has also directed that to ensure value for money and preserve the integrity and transparency of the procurement process under the government-to-government framework, Siemens AG shall be solely responsible for nominating its EPC partners to perform all onshore works; no middlemen.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202005280597.html

28th May
Oge Peters, Head of Commercial: “Savannah has been producing gas at an increasing rate throughout this crisis to our current customers and is speaking to other power stations about Accugas stepping in to meet their current gas volume deficiency.” #Nigeria #SavannahEnergy #SAVE

Very well aware of that Ian but still does not detract from the opportunity on both fronts, not just Nigeria and Covid 19 was not behind our fall from 28p prior to February. I'm more inclined to think its a forced seller/liquidity/ or still a bondholder exiting.

We are still covered by guarantees. The electricity sector is going through transformation and has been well highlighted what this will bring for the country in terms of economic uplift away from high cost and polutting diesel which still doesnt bring normal power availability. The latest IMF loan is tied to that transformation plan, removal of subsidies and cost reflective tarriffs. If anything Covid 19 has been a kick up the rear to get on with transforming an economy away from far to high percentage dependency on oil. You can only do that when you have a dependable energy and electricity supply and why this is priority for Government in fullfilling that.

Is this why they changed their name to energy ? CNG opportunity ? + New pipeline linking Calabar to carry 330,000 boepd/gas (2bcf/day) north.

"We have critical projects which will change the country; three critical pipelines that would change the country. One will connect the Eastern part of Nigeria and the Western. Another will provide the west with the required gas for development. The third will provide the entire north with gas for development and there is one that will connect between the west and the north.
The east-west line is Obiafu-obricom-oben (OB3) that will carry over 2 billion standard cubic feet of gas daily. The second one, the Escravos-lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) is already in existence and carries 1.1 billion standard cubic feet of gas daily. There will be an additional line with the same volume which will make it 2.2 billion.
The third pipeline is the AjaokutaKaduna-kano (AKK) system. There is a trans-nigerian line that will link Calabar, Lagos and Ajaokuta so that the gas will be available for the north. The AKK will give about 2 billion standard cubic feet of gas daily.
What does that mean for Nigeria? It means opening up opportunities. There are many Gas Based Industries (GBIS) springing up, many factories will come up. By way of case study, all the textile companies that are on gas in the eastern part of Nigeria are still on. They do not rely on transmitted and distributed power to operate, they have their gas, they generate their power, so they are on and employment is assured.
So the GBIS will provide many opportunities then again our aspiration for gas to people, can easily be reached because there is a deliberate attempt to create penetration of liquefied petroleum gas is LPG and compressed natural gas (CNG).
As a government, we promised Nigerians alternative fuel. We want Nigerians to get affordable fuel and energy freedom. Nigerians buy at any price because they do not have alternatives. Compressed natural gas (CNG) is an alternative fuel.
Nigerians now have alternatives. This is the same thing we want to do with energy, petrol. We want to introduce CNG. Cars will be converted, especially commercial ones, to become CNG and enabled. One litre equivalent of CNG will give you at least 180 percent more when compared to one litre of petrol and it is cheap.
Once Nigerians have this alternative the issue of subsidy does not even arise anymore. It becomes a question of choice. It is working, we have a success story in Benin City. We want to rewrite our history. We can replicate this story across Nigeria. We have the gas, we have everything.
This is why a special committee was set up for LPG and CNG penetration which DPR is hosting. The aim is to take gas to people by converting commercial vehicles such as tricycles, taxis, buses and some of the conglomerates have started converting their trucks that carry products across the nation to CNG.
https://businessday.ng/energy

A broker note buy for 48p after a placing at 28p followed by a fall to 5-6p while every other oil stock was rising - i sold the same shares for 110p and in a full 3 years after these posts, i sold again for 330p when it went on to touch 430p.
Regardless of some delayed gas payments or not, Save generates substantial revenue and cashflow where other companies i invested in the past had none or little. It has had a 100% strike rate in Niger where the basin average has been over 75% and multi billion bl recoverable oil potential. I won't make any apologies for saying this and while not risk free, this has been the biggest opportunity in over 20 years of investing 'I' have seen in o&g for not just one but two distinct country assets with a supply business that makes a lot of cash as well. Many of the comments i see here now, remind me of similar investor reaction to the s/p instead of the opportunity. So i follow my own convictions which includes a potential valuation here in the double digit billions purely because it has the class of assets capable to more than create that. Of course the market is always right - NOT !
coxsmn 24 Sep '08 - 12:38 - 2044 of 4499
The hit rate seems to be about 50%.
HugePants 19 Feb '09 - 22:52 - 2104 of 4499
Anyone know what the blazes is happening here? Nearly all these small oilies are well off their lows whereas this dog is hitting new lows daily.
The company raised £25M in July at 28p per share.
drago 11 Mar '09 - 11:07 - 2137 of 4499
6p, WELL DONE!
soulsauce 16 Mar '09 - 16:20 - 2176 of 4499
Is there no bottom here??
drago 16 Mar '09 - 16:49 - 2180 of 4499
Companies i hold have found oil and the shares go down. market WILL NOT give it value untill it is producing cash. and that requires a lot capital and time. don't forget you cannot borrow cash to develope a well, market dosn't want to know. i hope i am wrong and that someone out there values a big oil find.
8Trader 17 Mar '09 - 09:37 - 2186 of 4499
550k delayed buy at 5.97p, 5.4p offer at the time of that trade so around a half pence premium for size.
lynxboy 17 Mar '09 - 16:52 - 2194 of 4499
are these guys overpaying themselves? maybe selling options
unionhall 17 Mar '09 - 16:53 - 2195 of 4499
They have brought the option exercise price down from 48p to 30p. Still juicy for current investors...
HugePants 17 Mar '09 - 20:52 - 2197 of 4499
The drop in this stock has been amazing. Its just fallen off the proverbial cliff.£25M raised at 28p a few months back. What so bad has happened that this company is valued at less than 20% of the fundraising price?
comedy 18 Mar '09 - 08:16 - 2200 of 4499
is 5p the base??? looking at the drop seems like a plane nose dive
themoneymonster2 18 Mar '09 - 09:57 - 2207 of 4499
So does anyone know roughly what the cash position is?
sivadnoj 18 Mar '09 - 10:20 - 2209 of 4499
Tristone issued a note in January 09 with a NAV of 45 pence per share.

" Approximately $125MM of costs related to R3/R4 PSC are unrecovered as of 2019 year-end."
(Page 332)
Phase 1 - up to 1500 bopd. ($14.4m total of which $8.1m for the EPF is leased over 2 years).
Phase 2 - 5,000 bopd. ($43.3m).
"The total external funding requirement for Phase 1 and Phase 2, prior to the project becoming self-funding, is estimated at US$57.7m 2020 prices." (Page 329/330).

Is the $50m from the Geneva based oil trading group still available which was announced in Sept 2018 ? - that would cover most of the production set up.

Currently 33 mmbo 2C from 4 discoveries with upside to 105 mmbo appraisal from same.
Further 24 mmbo recoverable mid case potential from deeper targets in 3 of the discovery wells.
$125m to be recovered (10p/share in cost recovery + value of 33 mmbo 2C with a weighted average of $4.80/b when moved to 2P = $158m).

Let's hope this part of the project kicks off later in H2 and a more detailed explanation of how the exploration side will commence in terms of size/duration and cost. Current share price doesn't reflect anything for Niger.

It's one of their brokers so i fully expect they receive compensataion in some shape or other.
It's keeping an eye on what the targets are or if over ambitious. For me, they are reasonable on the 38% COS for the Niger exploration targets, $4.30-$4.90/b for oil with 3k for 2021- 5k bopd max for 2022 which would be domestic imo and allowing very little in the way of upside on new sizeable gas off take increases in Nigeria over these current 3 years.

For 2020 gross production is 25,100 boepd. Includes 1.25k bopd from Stub Creek and 0.7K from Niger - therefore about 23,100 boepd gas (138 mmcf/d). Peak gas had hit 164 mmcf/d in February so with the additional customers maybe we can meet or beat that figure for this year and again in the following 2 years.

2021 - 30,600 boepd less 1,25K SC and less 3K Niger = 26,350 boepd gas (158 mmcf/d).
2022 -36,300 boepd less circa 2.5k SC and 5K Niger = 28,800 boepd gas (172.8 mmcf/d).
Name plate 200 mmcf/d with expected 240 mmcf/d so well below full utilisation which the CEO expected to be full by end of this year at least on name plate.

While $4.30 - $4.90/b is used by Mirabaud for Niger oil against Saves estimated $5-$6/b expectation, i've used my own range of figures from as low as $2.50 up to a max of $4/b in determining my reason to invest especially with a risked 2.6 billion bls recoverable.
Imo they've left room and the targets are not overly ambitious and there's nothing beyond name plate capacity, new fields or getting much if any into the Niger export pipeline as we have that 2022 5k capacity for the Zinder refinery.

In addition Accugas investment is over $1b in processing, pipelines and facilities. You can't build it any cheaper so a reasonable valuation imo. Gas is predominantly unnafected as like oil swings. If the electricity sector is sorted out and cost reflective targets are fully in next year, there is major room for growth. 25,000 MW going up in smoke on high cost diesel and the most serious pollution, economic growth/transition delay can't go on forever. Save have 600 mmcf/d pipeline capacity about 3.5 times 2022 gas sales (bar more processing capability but can be added to). This is one of the biggest opportunities in it's own right, not without risk but i think alot of people dont get the scale it can be on or value upside.

The Capital Access note gives a consensus 54p but no overall breakdown.
Mirabaud Oct 2019 - Target price 90p but their core value is 58p - 4p beyond Capital Access.
They break it down as Uquo 22p, S/Creek 4p, Accugas 64p = 90p. (32p attributed to Accugas debt and this pays down over the following years plus a further 3p for overheads + 1p other acq costs etc = total debt 36p. 3p for net cash on completion + 1p from option/warrants) = a core 58p valuation after allowing for debt.
They have a risked 1p for Uquo 2C, 6p for S/Creek 2C and 13p for the Niger discovery area = 20p risked (28p unrisked) + 58p core = 78p risked after debt.

For a further 120 mmbls upcoming in the Niger exploration they have 44p unrisked and 16p risked. They have those 120 mmbls risked at 38% therefore allowing 16p risked + the 78p. This brings Mirabauds target to 94p after debt. The unrisked target price is 130p after debt. (All page 4).
If they get the debt paid down or completely off, this accounts for up to another 32p+ of upside (ie 126p or 162p unrisked but that's down the road subject to debt clearance).
This accounts for just approx 170 mmbls including the current discoveries of the estimated risked recoverable mid case 2.6 billion bls .

Yr/e Ebitada for 2019 minus $15m. (Adm doc says Ebitdax +$89.5m for 2019 - The 'X 'on ebitdax meaning excluding exploration - so don't know how this squares with minus $15m for 2019). No production/revenue was given as it deals from transaction completion/2020 onwards.
For 2020 - production estimate of 25,100 boepd gross to give rev of $234m and $36m net income after all tax/costs/finance etc ( where are we end Q1 2020 update - had hit 27,300 boepd in Feb - in line possibly ?? dyor). EPS estimate 3.68p/share . (Although strip out 700 bopd Niger which was included in gross figure).
2021 production estimate of 30,600 boepd and revenue $311.5m. (includes 3K bopd Niger). After tax, finance and all costs = $109m and EPS of 9.24p. Includes $12.5m div.
2022 production estimate of 36,300 boepd gross (5k bopd from Niger). Revenue estimated at $389m and $148m after tax/finance and all costs = 15p EPS. (All page 5).
While they are a year behind on Niger, there's not much increase allowed for anything from Nigeria gas production upside on new customers and still about 15% below their CPF at 200 mmcf/d nameplate or almost 30% below the 240 mmcf/d they believe its capable of. Instead it factors in Niger oil and little in the way of new Accugas customers.

https://www.savannah-energy.com/downloads/Mirabaud%20-%20SAVP%20(4.10.19).pdf

I think the term you used was F-I.,,L,..;T.,,H yesterday.
I can follow what i want, post what i want when it's backed up with some level of analysis unlike you. You called this a zi...pon scheme and the company a sc..a...m - maybe you can explain how.
All the blue chip institutions, brokers, AIIM Partners (Old Mutual), myself and anybody else with a degree of rationality must have missed this.

Meanwhile as i said before the irony in your posts is lost on you as usual.
"that’s if the investors following you haven’t found out where you eat your lunch" - Well i can safely say a blouse like you won't turn up !

M/box 6th May 20 BMN
" I am really shocked
Since buying in I have seen the different types of people invested and many get upset / angry because they are under ..... I get that , it’s happened to me in the past.
This is why I have decided not to buy anymore and leave that cash ?? n the sidelines.
I urge some of you who deliberately provide posters to please grow up.
Posters who answer with foul language or thoughts plz grow up
All in all guys respect each other as we are here to make money. Bmn we trying their best and time will tell how good this investment turns out but with hundreds of millions in the hands of irresponsible Numbots it really scares me to think of what could happen.
Only invest what you can afford to lose, BB are designed to debates and opinions that differ.
Plz chaps .... let’s grow up and grow smart "

Lol you having another bad day Munchbox. I've news for you, i'll still be here in 1-2 years. I don't need anyone to keep me company. Losing money ? Advice ?- sure you seem to do that all on your own. Crawl back up your own rear you *******.

AK talks about the business but when he does he points out it's two seperate businesses.
All cash generated at the Accugas level might have to stay in that business to fund it's own growth (and at Uquo gas sales to Accugas) given AIIM are 20% owners in both Accugas and Uquo. AIIM i doubt would not be willing to let much of the cash out of that business side for Savp to weaken Accugas until that debt is greatly reduced, plus money set aside for new gas fields and a future CPF upgrade to go beyond the limitations of name plate 200 mmcf/d (240 mmcf/d max they believe).
Savp will have cash flow from Stubb Creek that AAIM are not involved in - though not a lot until oil prices recover.
Not sure what the $54m paid by AIIM went on or what they would have done with it or where that is held given Save funded the deal on it's own then sold 20% to AIIM.
Niger EPS is about $6.8m to first oil and until there is an improvement in prices there seems little immediate rush this or next quarter ?
The bigger question is what will the new R1/2/4 block signature bonus cost because we have not given up one single Km2 given it incorporates a piece of the old R3 area. - Is this more feasible/attractive for a farmout with a new 10 year tenure ?
The R3 area where the discoveries were made is smaller and maybe Savps intention is to not farm this out. They have 33 mmbo 2C from 4 of the discoveries but in the CPR it states that there is potential upside to 105 mmbo from those 4 at the current discovery level. In addition it also says that the 3 of these discoveries have deeper mid case potential of circa 24 mmbo.
So upside to 124 mmbo potential on the existing prospects that already have oil not counting the Zomo discovery. ""The Amdigh-1 well was drilled to 2,469 m on a narrow closure mapped along the crest of a tilted fault block (Figure 40). It is the largest of the Savannah discoveries to date, and with by far the largest upside potential".
Therefore can 3 of the wells be deepened at much less cost than completely new wells ?
So to finish how much of the $54m remains (if any)? If some of that was paid over to Accugas again post deal, can some of the be expected back to Save ?
Still $65m due in late payments under the Calabar GSA and to be resolved at some point and covered by guarantee?
Given the other assets are debt funded - can Niger, particularly R3 discoveries be funded by some debt given its a seperate business and not linked to the others under any guarantees? What happened to the $50m oil group facility ? Is that still available - again in context of maybe cheaper drilling costs for well deepening if that is possible and 33 mmbo booked 2C as well as a domestic market for sales ?
Finally - farmout partner can't be ruled out with some cash input but with a 10 year tenure it removes the immediate need for one in the first 6-12 months ?

With Ifam and potential additional gas customers, i don't think the overall picture is too bad.

I posted a number of weeks back about the extremely poor share price performance relative to the bonuses and salaries paid. I also pointed out that the remuneration committee should take note of those issues and at no point could CO-19 or the oil price fall only a few months ago be blamed on the dire share price performance as the s/p had already fallen significantly below the transaction pricing by year end 2019.

I've noticed that the Hurdle price of 42p for the LTP could be reviewed at some future point which imo is unlikely to mean an upward revision, more likely cheaper. Any plan to lower the hurdle price just because the s/p is now lower is not on and imo it would reward poor performance.
I urge every serious investor to let your feelings be known to both Save management (not just IR) and to the nominated advisor. Ring, write or whatever and make your displeasure known if you agree with me and not just rant about it on a discussion thread. If as we are told by the CEO that the share price is too lowly valued in terms of a potential takeover that it doesn't even bear discussion then there is absolutely no cause for any review as to potentially lowering that incentive price of 42p.

Strand Hanson Ltd, 26 Mount Row, London W1K 3SQ. (Rory Murphy, Ricthie Balmer, James Spinney) 020 7409 3494

"As disclosed in the Dec 2017 Admission Document, in the view of the Remuneration and Nomination Committee, the vesting and hurdle conditions of the Existing Plans were too stretching to serve as a realistic incentive. Accordingly, and as disclosed in the Dec 2017 Admission Document, the Company had intended to reduce: (i) the Hurdle Price (as defined in paragraph 4.2 of Part 10 of this document) under the Long Term Incentive Plan from £1.68 to £0.42; and (ii) the vesting condition under the Supplementary Plan to a target share price of £0.42 per Ordinary Share. Rather than effect these changes at this current time, it is anticipated that the Company’s Remuneration and Nomination Committee will undertake a review of the Existing Plans to ensure that the vesting and hurdle conditions continue to serve as a realistic incentive in the current market. Such conditions will be determined in consultation with Savannah’s Nominated Adviser
and it is acknowledged that, in certain circumstances, a fair and reasonable opinion pursuant to AIM Rule 13 of the AIM Rules may be required to be given on the amendments."

I can't see unfortunately where or why they would do a share buy back this year or in the next 2 ?
Company still needs to grow.
They still want to pay down debt and pick up further gas assets.
Plus if they go beyond the capacity of the CPF they are going to have to invest in a bolt on facility/expansion.
On top of this they said Niger EPS and further exploration drilling subject to finance.

Perhaps the idea of a farmout is Save continue on/alone with the much smaller R3 standalone licence and EPS, while the enlarged R1/2/4 is the farmout goal ?.

AK said Cash collections from the Nigerian assets for 2019 were expected to be around $190m.
Cash collections were $168.8m = about $21.2m shortfall.
For 2019 gas sales were 93.9 mmcf/d (15,650 boepd) at an average $3.57 mcf x 365 = $122.3m.
Gross oil production at Stubb Creek was 2519 bopd so 51% interest = 1285 bopd. At $65/b for 2019 = $30.4m.
$30.4m oil + $122.3m gas = $152.7m against cash collection of $168.8m. They appear to have taken in more revenue for what they sold - ie an excess of $16m.
2019 Ebitdax was given as $89.9m
============================================
The Daily Contract Quantity is 131 mmcf/d Calabar, 38.7 mmcf/d Unicem & 19.7 mmcf/d Ibom = total 189.4 mmcf/d. Take or Pay is 80% of that figure so 151.5 mmcf/d.
With TOP being 151.5 mmcf/d against 93.9 mmcf/d for 2019 actually sold = 57.6 mmcf/d below TOP.
This 57.6 mmcf/d at the same $3.57/mcf average would account for $75m not booked that should have come in under TOP.
If they got an excess of $16m on actual sales then $75m not received under TOP less this $16m = $59m outstanding yr/e 2019.
That might square somewhat with the statement "As at the date of this document, US$65 million is outstanding under the Calabar GSA" ???
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Even with Calabar payments lagging - Group made $89.5m EBITDAX for the year behind us
Since taking over gas production has increased 25% to 19,600 compared so actual gas revenue should be 25% higher which on a years basis is over $152m/yr not counting any oil revenue which may imo be circa $15m less this year
Peak Q1 production of 164 mmcf/d (27,300 boepd gas) was reached in Feb this year.
$104.2m expected net asset FCF from Nigeria for 2020.
Ifam customer was to kick in Q2 plus other potential new customers to add

CPR for Niger used $42/b brent reference to 2022.

Goldman have upped their target for 2021 to $55.63 for Brent.

This might keep the focus on farm-in partners as well as CNPCs pipeline construction and our eventual EPS. Also should help eleviate some of the stress on Nigeria if there is a half decent recovery from the current price range.

Goldman Sachs Predicts $51 Oil In 2021

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 04, 2020, 4:00 PM CDT

Goldman Sachs raised its estimate for WTI Crude prices in 2021 to $51.38 per barrel from $48.50, expecting a gradual recovery in global oil demand and production cuts from OPEC+ and shut-ins elsewhere to support oil prices next year.

“Oil production has started to decline quickly from a combination of scaleback in activity, shut-ins and core-OPEC/Russia production cuts,” Goldman Sachs Equity Research said in a note carried by Reuters.

“Demand is also beginning to recover from a low base, led by a restarting Chinese economy and in?ecting transportation demand in developed market economies,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in the note.

Together with raising its forecast for WTI Crude, Goldman Sachs revised up its estimate for Brent Crude prices to $55.63 a barrel from $52.50 per barrel previously expected.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Sachs-Predicts-51-Oil-In-2021.html

The IFC had a sizeable investment in Seven Energy.
On the first listing document issued late 2017 they were to recieve 38,972,955 shares in Save.
On 13th March 2020 the International Finance Corporation (IFC) issued a TR1 saying they had reduced to 2.99% which means a holding balance of 29.8m shares as of 6 weeks ago.
Also to my knowledge Petrofac had a big holding in 7E of over $75m of either stock or bonds so don't know if they salvaged something through Saves takeover and have been a seller and maybe continuing ? Not easy times for Petrofac either.