Member Info for ZENGAS

I remember saying many months ago that the cost of a new licence may have been beyond the reach of AAOG - reported now as starting at $5m

From AEI 29/07/2020

'Zenith Energy not sole contender for Tilapia licence

Zenith Energy, which bought the former owner of the Tilapia licence, AAOG Congo, in May, is facing competition from seven other companies interested in the oil field, much to the ministry of hydrocarbons' delight as it hopes to raise the bidding.
The race is on for the renewal of the Tilapia licence, previously owned by AAOG Congo, after it expired on 18 July. Andrea Cattaneo, the director general of Canadian Zenith Energy, was able to work his way around Covid-19 flights restrictions and land in Brazzaville at the end of June. Zenith, which bought AAOG in May, wants to secure a 25-year renewal for Tilapia.

Why the buzz?
In mid-June, the Congolese director general of hydrocarbons Teresa Goma made it clear to Zenith that getting a renewal to the licence was not going to be a bed of roses and there were several other contestants in the running. According to our information, these include South African firm Sungu Sungu Petroleum, a pioneer in the shale gas industry in South Africa, and the Nigerian trader Index Petrolube Africa, which has no experience in exploration on the continent. Index Petrolube Africa unsuccessfully tried to acquire the Congolese fields Kombi, Likalala and Libondo II, later won by Perenco after a bitter battle against Total (Africa Intelligence, 23/04/20).
Another Nigerian firm, Atlantic L&D Group, would also like to pick up the Tilapia licence, as would SNPC chairman Denis Gokana's company Africa Oil and Gas Corp (AOGC). They are joined by Kontinent Congo, a subsidiary of the US-based, Kontinent. Kontinent Bongo is headed by Cameroonian national Yaya Moussa, former representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Brazzaville. Petronas' trading arm Petco, and the Russian state-owned Zarubezhneft, make up the last of the contenders interested in the licence.
Bidding up on tax
By making sure Zenith is aware that it is far from the only oil company interested in Tilapia, Goma is hoping to raise how much each firm is willing to put down for the award bonus, which starts at a minimum $5m. Profit oil, the amount shared between the operators and the state after deduction of development costs, will be split evenly between the state and the joint venture, as is often the case with Congolese oil contracts. '

I wouldn't remotely make comparissions between Vog/Save and if Save directors did what VOG did since inception then i wouldn't be here.

Vog either lost or did nothing with most of its assets since it came to market in 2004 with 60m shares in issue and an £11m m/cap value. Over the next 16 years later it ballooned to over 4 billion shares in the process, burned through millions, consolidation of shares and has a m/cap of under £10m today.
Any deal it ever done was either imo over priced and came to nothing. It lost Kermekol - yet where did the cash go ?. Tamdykol slowly hidden from view about how poor it was. Still sitting with West Med that it can do nothing with. Been mired in arbitration, disputes, side deals and not surprised it is where it is because nothing was every straightforward so who ultimately knows why ENEO is not paying up which is part owned by Actis/Cmeroon Govt.
Never mind Kermekol, Logbada was imo peculiar to say the least (where was the initial $16/mcf customers signed and also LsOI for 7 mmcf/d 12 years ago ??? yet only averaged $5.80/mcf all in in Jaune 2017). From the Mail last year " 30/6/19 In a trading update VOG reveals it is the target of legal action by CHL because VOG suspended a royalty payment from it's logbada gas project in Cameroon to CHL. VOG has a 35% interest in CHL but 43% of it is owned by HJ resources - a company ultimately controlled by VOGs former CEO K.Foo and his family. Foo was booted out in April. Foo is not happy about the deal ending having pocketed millions since it started in 2009" https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-mail-on-sunday/20190630/283562337098634
This article was an eye opener back in 2014 and any investor or potential investor would have seen alarm bells given their past issues with asset deals (see Kermekol/Tamdykol etc). https://www.rolandhead.com/oil-gas/who-is-getting-4-5-of-victoria-oil-gas-plc-revenues-straight-off-the-top/
Even now they are still in arbitration/dispute with RSM irrespective of ENEO and non payment. Not surprised that VOG under new manangement has actually terminated the ENEO deal over non payment. They didn't even have a payment guarantee. The peak delivery was about 6 mmcf/d with 80% 'ToP' which is small for a 30 MW p/station and even though it's their lowest priced, but supposedly highest offtake customer and part government owned - $6.75-$6.95 per mcf seems steep. I think it's follows a long line of problematic assets and deals that new management now have to deal with.

Can SAVE emulate Kosmos (KOS), Tullow (TLW), Premier Oil (PMO).

KOS 404.7m shares. Share price & M/cap 12/11/19 580p = £2.347b. 20/2/20 410p = £1.659b. 20/3/20 59p = £239m. 8/6/20 268p = £1.08b.
552 mmboe P2. 26,500 bopd Ghana, 11,600 bopd Guinea, 28,300 boepd GOM = 66,400 boepd.
$130m cash. $2.2 billion debt.
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TLW 1410m shares. Share price & M/cap 12/11/19 210p = £2.96b. 6/12/19 142p = £2b. 17/3/20 8p = £112m. 19/7/20 30.5p = £430m.
243 mmboe P2. (860 mmboe 2C). 87,000 bopd in 2019 (Ghana/Guinea +). Guidance for 2020 70-80,000 bopd.
Net debt end 2019 $2.8b (Since sold about 500 mmboe 2C for circa $575m in a distressed sale with more sales to come to reduce debt).
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PMO 840m shares. Share price & M/cap. Jan 2020 119p = £1b. March 2020 13p = £109m. 19/7/20 41.7p = £350m.
Production fell 20% - 84,000 boepd last year to 67,300 boepd current.
175 mmboe P2. (672 mmboe 2C).
Net debt reduced from $2.3b to $1.9b.
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Above 3 Cos debt range $2-$2.8b. While significantly leveraged both TLW & PMO have had a significant amount of production fall off, coupled with lower prices to service that debt pile. KOS had 7,000 boepd in GOM shut in. The m/caps were at their lowest in March when C-19 really struck and the oil market was heavily oversupplied and undertaking deep cuts to enable a recovery of some sorts 3 months later.
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SAVE 996m shares 7.5p = M/cap £75m. Debt $500m.
70 mmboe 2P. (90 mmboe 2C). 80% Ownership of the Accugas business valued at $650m net.
Production about 17-18,000 net + Stubb Creek 1k+ = circa 18-19,000 boepd total before any increases.
If they manage a material shift by year end to have their CPF contracts fully utilised or about 180 mmcf/d gross (30,000 boe gross) = 24,000 boed net.
Stubb Creek to be debottlenecked to 5,000 bopd = 2,500 bopd net. (26,500)
If awarded - production impact (+ P2/2C) from a marginal field eg 1,500 bopd net (28,000) ?
If as reported in the running for participation in the Oxy assets - These are distressed sales so we may be buying at the bottom of the market - hypothectical but can 10-20% of P2/2C and/or 3-6,000 bopd be added for $150m-$300m ? whether here or a similar acquisition (AEI said Oxy can expect $800m-$1b for the sale). (31-34,000 boepd)
Niger domestic phase 1& 2 = 5,000 bopd (circa $53m). (36-39,000 boepd) pre Niger export pipeline.
CNPC pipeline 24 months out perhaps 10k bopd.
Ongoing Accugas production increases via it's 100,000 boepd pipeline capacity. AK mentioned that a similar CPF as current capacity could be built anywhere on their line at a cost of $150m- $250m and could finance .
Potential to acquire producing assets given we have a vastly lower level of debt plus assets more keenly priced and with development spend made. On the above and with a debt level well below that of KOS, TLW or PMO, £2b m/cap - 200p still very feasible and hopefully no early predators.

Should read $1.325m liabilities (not £) which is about $22 per P2 barrel on top of opex that was previously $44 for Oil and $12 for gas which they are trying to bring down to a combined $30/boe.

Cash $315.79m, Restricted Cash $59.7m. (Given as $339m net at the end of Q1)
Total liabilities £1.325b. https://www.investegate.co.uk/rockrose-energy-plc/rns/full-year-results/202004060700108177I/
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60.8 mmboe 2P, 21.2 mmboe 2C
30th April 2020 Presentation. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/rockrose2019/2020/04/30120807/RockRose-AGM-presentation-v3.pdf
Oil opex was $44/b while Gas was $12/boe which combined they were trying to bring below $30/b in 2020 against lower prices from circa 20,000 boepd.
A the end of the day, they might have had more cash than what they were sold for but the there is a deep layer of provisions that has to be factored into RRE on top of a hefty development spend and lower price uncertainty.
The CEO will walk away with £66m approx which is a big incentive to sell given the above.

Save have currently 162 mmboe 2P/2C and 6-10 billion boe unrisked mid-upside case as well as a fully integrated gas supply business . Imo there is no comparrison between RRE and Save. I expect Save will progress to 1 billion boe + 2P/2C. In respect of the Accugas business, capacity and network i think this has the potential to be worth more than $1b to Save. (Not many O&G producers have such a seperate business side to them of that capacity).

Another report in AEI today saying Tullow may be forced to sell more assets to help reduce it's debts. It's reported to be trying to raise a further $1b. It approved it's Uganda sale for $575m at board level 2 days ago. These assets are in the same region as where Oxy is selling it's Jubilee/TEN stakes.
The tone of the article is lack of buyers ie meaning distressed sales. AEI reckons the Equitorial Guinea assets may be sold -

' New Tullow Oil boss Rahul Dhir may be forced to sell further assets
In a delicate situation with the banks over its debts, Tullow Oil, the junior with the most extensive assets on the continent, is faced with some tough and urgent decisions.
Having taken over the reins of Tullow Oil barely a fortnight ago, the ex-Delonex boss Rahul Dhir does not have much time to get the company back on its feet. Its stakes in Ceiba and Okume producing blocks in Equatorial Guinea, operated by Kosmos Energy and Trident Energy, could figure high up the list of potential asset sales.
Limited pool of potential buyers
In late 2019, Tullow retained Natixis to sell part of its holding in Kenya's 13T and 10BB blocks (reducing its stake from 50% to 30%), but the sale has been complicated by the unfavourable climate created by the Covid-19 pandemic and the fact that the Kenya finance and justice ministries are opposed to the contractual amendments negotiated with the petroleum ministry for the development phase (Africa Intelligence, 03/03/20).
And companies are not exactly queuing up to acquire these assets either. Backed the American asset manager Carlyle, Boru Energy, which was set up by Tullow Oil founder Aidan Heavey in 2019, may be interested in certain assets, and another company in which Carlyle has a 30% stake, Neptune Energy, could be tempted too. Its main investor (with a 49% stake) is the sovereign fund China Investment Corp, and in 2018 it acquired Engie E&P assets in Algeria and Egypt. And lastly, Trident Energy, which is supported by the global private equity giant Warburg Pincus, might take an interest in certain blocks including those in Equatorial Guinea.
Tullow was once worth an estimated £15bn, but its value slipped below the one-billion mark back in March. '

If they are 'in the running also' - how can that be so if you didn't have access to capital ?

Currently £75m m/cap which imo still shows the serious disconect versus the opportunity and i see the growth potential for 40-50k boepd production.

If they reach all their contracted volume/new customers by year end of about 180 mmcf/d - that's about 30,000 boepd or 24,000 boepd net.

Stubb Creek oil about 2,000 and upside to 5k gross once de-bottlenecked. (26.5k ?)

Possible marginal field deal later in the year - might add a similar 2-5k bopd potential. AGM - "We have registered with certain partners." (28-29k).

Phase 1 Niger 1,000 bopd - Phase 1&2 = 5,000 bopd domestic market. (33-35k).

10-20% of buying production assets 3-6,000 bopd. Speculation only based on yesterdays AEI report - but if they don't win here on part of Oxys assets , there's likely other opportunities from divestments subject to funding. (36-41k).

Potential for perhaps 10k bopd into Niger export pipeline when built.

Ramp up in further gas demand as electricity sector expands/new pipeline completions by govt. (100,000 boepd pipeline capacity and up to 40,000 boepd processing capacity. AGM coment - could site further processing capacity anywhere on the p/l network).

18/5/20 TOTAL RNS
Total Discontinues the Acquisition of Occidental Petroleum’s Assets in Ghana.
Paris – In August 2019, Total and Occidental Petroleum entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (PSA) in order for Total to acquire Anadarko’s assets in Africa. Under this agreement, Total and Occidental have since completed the sale and purchase of the Mozambique and South Africa assets.
The PSA provided that the sale of the Ghana assets was **conditional upon the completion of the Algeria assets’ sale.** Occidental has informed Total that, as part of an understanding with the Algerian authorities on the transfer of Anadarko’s interests to Occidental, Occidental would not be in a position to sell its interests in Algeria.
Given the extraordinary market environment and the lack of visibility that the Group faces, and in light of the non-operated nature of the interests of Anadarko in Ghana, Total has decided not to pursue the completion of the purchase of the Ghana assets and, as a consequence, to preserve the Group’s financial flexibility.
“This decision not to pursue the completion of the purchase of the Ghana assets consolidates the Group’s efforts in the control of its net investments this year and provides financial flexibility to face the uncertainties and opportunities linked to the current environment,” said Patrick Pouyanné, Total Chairman and CEO.
https://www.total.com/media/news/actualites/total-discontinues-acquisition-occidental-petroleums-assets-ghana

The Total acquisition of Oxys Ghana assets fell through becaue Oxy can't sell the Algerian assets that Total wanted so they pulled out on Ghana as it was conditional on Algeria.
Ghana appears to be going to tax the sale of its interest in Jubilee and TEN which Oxy will have to pay - not the buyers problem i feel. Oxy wants to raise $15b to reduce debt. About $8.3b of that was meant to come from the South African, Mozambique, Algerian and Ghanaian assets that Total were to buy - the latter two that Total won't be buying because the Algerian deal was blocked.
There's probably alot of merit to seek to buy distressed assets as they have a lot of further upside and provide instant cash flow from day one. In addition opex is low. Saves initial trucking target is for 1,000 bpd in phase 1 Niger at a cost of $6.3m + a further $8m in leasing costs over 2 years which should be doable regardless. 5,000 bopd in phase 2 at about a further $43m = total of $57m. Could Save have a decent return from Ghana by the time phase 2 in Nigeria would commence anyway ? Still up in the air and i'd say a steep one for SAVE with other competition for the assets.

Previously AEI reported on Save in the running to secure R3/R4 in 2016. They also named Seven Energy as the target acquisition before it was later disclosed by Save in 2017. Late last year they said Dig Oil were after the 4 blocks which were to come available and earlier this year stated they were off the market which Save later confirmed as renegotiated into 10 year blocks. On past reports, i'd tend to see some truth in this and Saves own strategy (see below).

AEI report that OXY could expect $800m - $1b for it's interests for some 30,000 boepd and i beleive about 296 mmboe 2P/2C with further upside. These obviously have instant cash flow.

Save had a 2018 undrawn $50m facility from an oil trading group - are they able to call on something like this/increase it along with some other terms to match a 10-20% interest as part of a consortium ? They've also just got the resolutions passed at the agm.
3-6k bopd (for a 10-20% interest) would increase revenue by $50m-$100/yr at this current oil range.

From Saves recent adm doc - "Outside of “on asset” or “near asset” growth opportunities in Niger and Nigeria, the Company reviews potential acquisitions and strategic transactions on an ongoing basis. In order for the Company to progress with a growth opportunity, it assesses the potential opportunity to deliver material NAV accretion, asset diversification and medium-term cost of capital reduction.

Opportunities should also be cash flow generative, or close to delivering cash flow generation, represent controlling interests in assets (or have a competent, credible operator) and be located in an emerging market jurisdiction with high-quality subsurface characteristics.

The Company also keeps under review the best avenue for developing its Nigerien Assets and Nigerian Assets, which may, in due course, result in the Company seeking independent finance for each business.
Savannah aims to move quickly to take advantage of opportunities that arise and to react promptly to changes in the business environment."

There's no difference in the Lek/Save news releases on Numis pull out from Nat Res sector.
Joint Broker Resignation
LEKOIL (AIM: LEK), the oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on Nigeria and West Africa, announces today that following the exit of Numis Securities Limited ("Numis") from the natural resources sector, Numis will cease to act as the Company's Joint Broker with immediate effect. The Company intends to appoint a second broker to act alongside Mirabaud Securities Limited in due course and will update the market accordingly.
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SAVE Resignation of Joint Broker
Savannah Energy PLC, the British independent energy company focused around activities in Nigeria and Niger, announces that, due to the exit of Numis Securities Limited ("Numis") from the natural resources sector, Numis will cease to act as the Company's Joint Broker with immediate effect. Mirabaud Securities Limited ("Mirabaud"), previously Joint Broker to the Company with Numis, will now act as Savannah's Sole Broker.
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Personally hoping for a success (if true as AEI reports) that we are in the running for some part of the Jubilee/TEN production assets from a distressed sale by OXY. Possibly as cheap right now to buy production assets/reserves with IMMEDIATE cashflow and further upside, rather than spend on exploration drilling and longer development wait on success. Might also help us progress Niger in due course.

Total have pulled out because they can't buy, though it bought the Oxxy Mozambique and SA assets.
Tullow as operator unlikely because they are busy selling other assets (Kenya recently) to pay down debt and already own 35% of Jubilee and 47% of TEN.
Kosmos who have an interest have over $ 2.5b debt of their own.
Oxxy that own them are in a bit of a fire sale mode after paying $38 billion to buy Annadarko (that owned the Ghana assets). They are trying to raise $15b through asset sales to pay down their debt.
Oxxy - 27% of Jubilee is about 93 mmboe P2 and 87 mmboe 2C and about 21,600 boepd net.
Oxxy - 19% of TEN is about 29 nmmboe 2P and 87 mboe 2C and about 9,500 boepd.
Combined about 296 mmboe 2P/2C and about 31,000 bopd for sale ?.
What price 10-20% as part of a consortium which is immediately cash generative ?

Porsche, that's an interesting report - Total had to pull out of buying Occidentals stake in the Jubilee and TEN fields in Ghana on 18th May 2020 which has come nearly 3 weeks after SAVEs supplemental addmission document and update so unlikely to have been on the agenda then.

The AEI report says OXXY has enticed several (Oil) traders to set up a consortium to buy the assets. Might be irrelevant but isn't one of our NEDs a founder of oil trading group Vitol ?

I think OXXYs share is 27% of 82,000 bopd Jubilee for 2020 and 9 or 19% of the 50,000 bopd TEN fields (Teneboa, Enyanra and Ntomme). If correct, ultimately it's hard to know what any participation or interest for us would be relative to other offers. If SAVE are in the running, then someone must be making capital available to us as part of some financing deal/secured on the assets ?

Ghana industry rumour plus SAVEs own addmission of entering the marginal field round in Nigeria. If anything it shows they are not planning to stand still solely on the assets we have.

contd

Accra stirs the pot
By threatening Total and Oxy with a $500m capital gains tax on the deal, Ghanaian Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta has played a major role in prompting the French major's withdrawal. That sum, disproportionate to the size of the assets, is thought to have been designed to ensure some these holdings go to local companies. Cornered, Oxy is currently forced to stay in Ghana: the US firm needs quick money after the fall in crude prices and given the unprofitability of shale oil and gas in the United States, from which most of its production derives. With lower oil prices, Oxy can expect to earn between $800m and $1bn from these Ghanaian fields.

Spotlight Ghana

15/7/2020

After Total's withdrawal, Glencore and Vitol come running for what's left of Anadarko

The defunct US firm Anadarko's producing assets, now in Oxy's hands, are attracting crude sellers and well-heeled juniors.
Total gave fair warning: if Algeria's energy ministry opposed its takeover of Anadarko's blocks, it would end discussions to get hold of the US firm's fields in Ghana, contenting itself with those in Mozambique and South Africa (Africa Intelligence, 17/03/20). After buying Anadarko in 2019, Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) now finds itself with blocks in Africa, specifically in Algeria and Ghana, that it doesn't want.
The firm has appointed its vice president in charge of strategic planning, Sunil Mathew, and its director of business development, Brennan Campbell, to find a buyer for its Ghanaian assets. According to our sources, the productive Jubilee and TEN (Tweneboa, Enyanra, Ntomme) fields, respectively 27% and 9% owned by Oxy, have enticed several traders such as Glencore to set up consortia to acquire them. Glencore is reportedly eager to team up with Ghana's Springfield Energy, headed by the well-connected Kevin Okyere, and the state-run Ghana National Petroleum Corp. Glencore's ultimate goal is to market Oxy's 30,000 bpd share of fields currently operating by Tullow Oil. Trafigura initially showed interest, but ultimately opted not to make Oxy an offer. The Swiss trader has just signed a pre-financing arrangement with Kosmos Energy to extract some of its crude in the United States and Ghana. Trident Energy, headed by Perenco's former CEO, Jean-Michel Jacoulot, is also said to be interested in teaming up with Kosmos Energy to take over Oxy's assets in Ghana.
What of Boru Energy and Vitol?
Other companies are thought to be keen on the purchase, such as Boru Energy (founded in 2019 by Tullow's former chairman Aidan Heavey), which is putting together a consortium with trading company Vitol for this purpose. Despite boasting a $1bn line of credit from the Carlyle investment fund, Boru does not yet have any assets. According to our sources, it was Carlyle that advised Boru to get in touch with Vitol. The trader is, like Glencore, keen to market the crude in play.
Boru's business model, based on buying producing licences operated by majors and juniors, is a perfect match for the stake Oxy wants to get rid of in Ghana. Moreover, Boru's management knows the country well, especially operations director David Lawrie, who worked on these deposits for Tullow Oil for many years.

Finally, Savannah Energy, which operates blocks R1, R2, R3 and R4 in Niger as well as active gas assets bought from Seven Energy, is reportedly also in the running.

Due to C-19 the delayed results to year end Dec 19 are nearly immaterial.
Infact we're through the first 6 months/half year trading to end of June which will be the main focus for clues on how we've been trading/delivering and what the outlook is for the remaining 5 and a half months of this year. These half year results have come out in September each year for the past 5 years.

From the Brent Oil Price Chart, Brent had fallen to $29/b in Jan 2016 and still under $47/b in June 2017 ( https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart )
In July 2016 they raised $40m at 38p/share. By Jan 2017 they had completed 800km2 of 3D seismic during that similar period of low oil prices and a tightening in credit and farm in deals. It was early March 2018 that they had the well pad complete and rig on site.
At the time of the operational update and Niger CPR etc on 1st May past - the price of Brent oil was under $19/b. With it now being $42/b it might like 2016-17 be soon more favorable to do something on development of the EPS. Estimated $6m sart-up + $8m for 2 years leasing costs for the 1,000 bopd to be trucked.
AK said at the AGM it would take about $35-$40m to get to 5,000 bopd (i think this was additional to the first 1k bopd).
Even though there's no farm-in, i think it's possible that SAVE can or could progress something in Niger on their own on the existing discoveriers and start eventual exploration again on R3 which is the much smaller licence. I might be wrong but i wouldn't write off nothing happning in Niger just because there is no farm-in partner. I think the farm in is more required for significant seismic acquisition on all the blocks as well as a larger exploration drilling campaign.
We should hear in due course on the Pre-Stack Depth Migration (PSDM) re volumetrics on the discoveries.
Stubb Creek Oil should be healthier with the price recovery in oil.
Registered for marginal fields which might if won, boost reserves and add to production.
He commented on Alaoji being owned by the same entity as Calabar and that contract re take or pay but that's where i joined and didn't understand it in its entirety.
On the new IFAM contract - moving ahead and delay was down to work on the older NGC pipeline held up by C-19 and should be done in the next month or so (now a week on).
Also other customer deals to come and again all against background of already increased production and reduced costs.
Mentioned that any further CPF could be sited anywhere near the pipeline infrastructure and doesn't have to be at Uquo.
Doesn't expect to get debt tenure deal done this year - but beleives it's achievable and looking to match debt to gas contract terms.
On the dividend - he mentioned that he will review this come the end of the year and fwiw i thought interesting that he said this was discussed very clearly with the institutional shareholders so looks to be keeping them well abreast of where he sees things.
So new customer potential = add revenue/pay down debt. Increase Stubb Creek Oil. Niger EPS first oil possible. Potential for reserves/production from any award from the marginal field round. All in all, i thought v positive especially at this valuation.

The negative to that is that the World Bank and IMF that is lending the money to the power sector recovery, require the government to introduce full cost reflective tarriffs. By continually putting off incremental increases, everyone in the chain is losing revenue leading to ongoing payment delay as well as infrastructure spend that the distribution companies need to make to bring a better quality of service. This puts the government longer on full subsidy if it can afford it, rather than going back to the Wold Bank and IMF and telling them thanks for the money but we didn't increase the tarrifs as expected and have put it off for another half year. That's were the problem is exacerbated.

Government will continue to subsidise payments as todays tariff increase appears to be put back to Q1 to alleviate for C-19 and allow time for more meter rollout and better billing.

i didn't ask as i thought it's going to be market sensitive so thought it unlikely to get anything indepth until the PSDM is finished.

Page 35 and 3.4 Discoveries of the Niger CPR

" It should be noted that the seismic interpretation used to generate depth maps and volumetric estimates is based on the Pre-Stack Time Migration (PSTM) R3 East 3D dataset processed in 2017. Savannah has now completed a Pre-Stack Depth Migration (PSDM) re-processing of the R3 East 3D seismic survey and is currently finalising its interpretation.

Within the same discovery, Savannah identified different segments for the E1, E2 and E3 (Figure 3-5), which were taken into consideration. The discovery well is drilled in segments 1&2, and it is considered that segment 3 is very likely to be in pressure communication due to the low displacement on the bounding fault especially towards the top of the structure. It is less clear if segments 4, 5 and 6 also form part of the discovery and hence those segments have been removed from the low and most likely cases and only considered in the high case
(Section 4). "

Amdigh’s STOIIP estimate show the discovery to be "one of the ten largest in the basin."

In the case of the 5 discoveries 35 mmbo 2C (33 mmbo net) is attributed with Amdigh having more than half of that figure. With them saying that the 'low' and 'mid' case for 3,5& 6 sections (and possibly section 2 as well depending how you interpret it), have been removed in Amdigh - that leaves 83.9 mmbo 3C relative to the 254.3 mmbb STOOIP which is the P10 highside just for Amdigh.

With the PSDM mentioned as currently being finalised this may lead to a rework of the numbers in the discoveries. Therefore is there likely to be far more oil there than just the 33 mmbo 2C net so far going on the above statement as well as being seperate from the 25 mmbo unrisked mid case deeper potential in the Yogou section.

For what it's worth the total net booked 2P/2C is currently 162 mmboe.
They don't have to drill to get any update on a possible increase in numbers from the PDSM.
Partnering for marginal field(s) - if successful by year end, how much additional 2P/2C.
It could increase significantly without any drilling activity.

Haven't time to put all notes together but i'm happy with what was discussed and thought everything was well answered.
More obviously when the results are issued and still in a closed period.

One quote re payment guarantee 'We've not done it yet and not anticipating ever having to do it' Good relations all round and with the government.

Did say in the 52 field marginal round that 'we have registered with certain partners' - worth noting that where oil fields are marginal they can have very significant untapped gas so will be interesting to see what pans out . July now so around November??? maybe for news. Certainly one way of adding significant gas reserves/or 2C.