Member Info for ZENGAS

HS No one is trying to discredit the messenger other than try and educate him/her.
It's been posted and discussed umpteen times which you are aware of.
The company is paid by the companies it supplies. If any of the Gencos don't pay the full amount to gas suppliers which they clearly don't at times, this is picked up by the governments own payment guarantee (not the World Bank Prg).
It's business protocol to inform the government (and in terms with the PRG) of late payment. The government hasn't stopped paying up under it's own guarantee system while the industry is in transition.
There is a distinct difference between late payment/lag and 'complete no payment' and this is what you should understand instead of saying they don't get paid as evidenced by the strength of cash collections.
There is historical debt on the books and this is prior to the intervention by the government in and from September 2017 !!!
Again this is the umpteenth time it is discussed for you, but imo you choose to revisit the same subject. When you admitted that you hadn't bothered reading the document yet went on to post your asumptions, what's the point in trying to answer you once again. If your not going to read documents when you are invested, you're more likely not to read up on anything if you're not imo.

HS - 'but can no longer invest here blindly, on trust.' I thought you said you were out as far back as early May when the Supp Adm doc came out and at the time when you made an assumption and were corrected on it, by your own admission you said you hadn't read it.

Of course they'd RNS if they weren't getting paid. If they weren't getting paid where do you think the $250.9m cash collections came from, Santa Claus ?

FY 2019 cash collections from the Nigerian Assets were US$168.8m.
H1 2020 cash collections from the Nigerian Assets of US$82.1m

With only 4 months to go to them saying they wll have the 200 mmcf/d CPF fully utilised, are they really going to sit on their hands after this year end and not chase up further growth oportunities just because of utilistation being maxed out?

You can't talk of follow on p/stations and 8-16 GW of diesel displacement that costs 2-3X more than gas and how you have 600 mmcf/d pipeline capacity yet let such a growth opportunity pass by. AK at the agm it said the estimated the cost of adding similar CPF capacity was $150-$250m cost and could be sited anywhere on their network.

If the gas price average is only $3.90/mcf and they build further customers from the demand pool over the next 24 months and are running at 400 mmcf/d (2/3rds of the pipeline capacity) and 2400 bopd at $40/b from S/Creek, it will represent a future $600m+ revenues.

If circa $220m revenues is creating around $130m FCF - then $600m+ revenues should correspond to around $350m FCF/yr.

It would still mean 200 mmcf/d spare pipeline capacity (circa $290m unlocked revenue potential) or an opportunity to transport 3rd party gas that they have mentioned.

Above envisages an average gas price of just $3.90/mcf (where we are now).

On $120m-$130m FCF generation they originally planned a $12.5m dividend - if the above growth scenario happens it could pave the way for substantial dividend growth while keeping the payout at just 10% of FCF ?.

In a scenario of our current $1 billion plus of infrastructure + 2P reserves and 2C, in addition to long term contracts generating perhaps $350m yearly FCF with further growth upside - surely this represents a future business worth more than £1 billion or £1/share to Save rather than the 9.5p (£95m) we are now.

Meanwhile Niger delayed (but when you study Accugas etc you can see why its not the only string to the company bow). Who can argue now with the geology and 5 out of 5 discoveries and a basin average of over 75% success rate . Adjacent Chinese discoveries represent 1 billion bls.

33 mmbo 2C discovered and would stretch this post to even re tell the upside just on the existing discoveries (already posted). 1-5K domestic production to be started via the EPS. The export pipeline will open up a much greater production opportunity in 2022.

Every 20 mmbls tied in estimated to represent an additional $100m value to Save.
With the extremely high success rate and sheer volume potential for multiple discoveries from the risked 2.3 billion bls mid case i would expect 100p of value creation from just a fraction of that.

2 distinct businesses and my rationale for a combined value of 200p price target !

6 mins in - Currently supplying about 10% of Nigerias power requirement. By year end 15% !

Anglo Asian Mining fell from the 50p level to a low of 3p and a persistent seller. Some PIs had concerns where it was operating etc, threw in the towel etc. At the time there was nothing fundamentally wrong other than the time to clear out the seller. For those that kept the faith, it recovered and was at a peak of 176p last year, before a further drop/profit taking/covid and now back at 149p.

Re director buying. You can't always expect certain directors to throw the book at it relative to their own personal circumstances. I remember Cove Energy and one director never holding more than about 15,000 shares while it went from the original 9p - 21p then 240p despite multiple success along the way.

When you add in their incentive shares here they have a tidy holding and the onus is on them to make the company perform for those incentives to shine and pay off.
Personally, i think a vote of confidence and i think they've took onboard some of the PI gripes from earlier in the year re clarity/info. Bonus defferred and director share buying as asked for.

re my post yesterday on EPS and broker forecast revenue of $234m for 2020, $311m for 2021 and $389m for 2022 with EPS of 2.6c/2020, 9.24c/2021 and 15c/2022. At an ex/rate of £1/$1.30 that's 2p EPS for this year, 7p for next year and 11.5p for 2022 (subject to those gas contracts he's promising coming through which i expect and taking over from the Niger delay).

Accugas/Nigeria opportunity if not understood by now is huge and is possibly as great if not greater than Niger.

Ibom Deep Sea Port and Ibom Industrial City
36km from Ibom Intl Airport (takes Boeing 747 and A380 Airbus).
Railway from Calabar-Uyo-Aba-Port Harcourt.
National Federal and State road improvements/Ibaka super highway.
The deep sea port designed for post and new Panamax size vessels will have several specialized terminals. It will also serve as a trans-shipment port for the West and Central Africa region. The Ibom Deep Seaport is in a location that will strategically serve the West and Central African Region including JDZ Sao Tome, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroun, Angola, Gabon, Congo, Congo DRC, Niger, and Chad. It is a Greenfield port project in a location with deep water access of 18 to 20m in the channel, and over 2 miles of quay area.
The Ibom Deep Sea port project is one the Federal Ministry of Transportation’s initiative to augment port capacity in Nigeria and aligns with the aggressive industrialization project being carried out by the Akwa Ibom State Government. The seaport will form part of an integrated industrial city to help foster economic development of the country, state as well as drive economic empowerment .
The deep sea port will be carried out in such a way that the synergies of having it within the Ibom industrial city can be fully optimised. Identified industries that will be developed in the industrial city include agriculture, petrochemicals, marine related industries, auto assembly plants, power plants, as well as real estate developments etc.
The objectives of the industrial city includes creating new and expanding markets and industries in Akwa Ibom State such as agriculture, petrochemicals, ship building and repair yards, auto assembly plants, fabrication/construction, maritime clusters, ICT and electronics, waterfront facilities for tourism and commerce, and power plants by providing an enabling environment, efficient infrastructure and access to market. The site is located close to five natural gas wells, which provide an opportunity to develop gas-based industries as part of the overall development. The area currently has a Free Trade Zone designation that seeks to attract foreign investors and will lead to economic diversification and transfer of required industrial / technology skills to the people of Akwa Ibom State.
http://ndlink.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/20170104-Profile-of-IDSP-and-IIC-Projects.pdf

Anyone see the comments/interview in the Annual Report last week with the Akawa Ibom State Govenor. (Also recall the February tweets re meeting/discussions for accessing new gas fields in the area). Tell me they won't be going any further than just 200-240 mmcf/d in the next year or two?

Akwa Ibom Govenor - "We expect Savannah to continue to expand its operations in the state, which will create future opportunities for local employment, economic growth and sustainable investment. As the power
situation gradually improves in the state and Savannah expands gas supply to new industrial clusters and our planned
Ibaka deep-sea port, we hope many more international investors and industries will be be attracted to Akwa Ibom State.

Two Chinese firms win bid to construct Ibom Deep Seaport February 2, 2020
Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/02/two-chinese-firms-win-bid-to-construct-ibom-deep-seaport/

Gov Emmanuel applauds FG on speedy actualization of Ibom Deep Seaport June 2, 2020
Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/06/gov-emmanuel-applauds-fg-on-speedy-actualization-of-ibom-deep-seaport/

Ibom deep seaport capable of generating 180,000 jobs Jun 23 2020 https://businessday.ng/news/article/ibom-deep-seaport-capable-of-generating-180000-jobs/

..maritime sector logistics operator, Chief Charles Ukoette "would not only create massive employment but also boost Akwa Ibom and the nation’s earnings by impacting a post- COVID-19 global economy within the sub-Saharan region". Jun 9 2020 https://oglinks.news/nigeria/news/operator-lauds-govt-on-aibom-deep-seaport

Feb 28 2020 "will stimulate business activities and lead to a gargantuan leap in trans-national trade activities, as it would handle large vessels that can load over 13,000 containers in one voyage". https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/02/ibom-deep-seaport-a-maritime-gateway-to-west-and-central-african-region/ .

I think AK said the average price for all gas is now $3.90/mcf with 10% of all revenue coming from oil.
The CPR based the FCF of $120m/2020, $131m/2021/$138m 2022 = $130m average per year on 'TOP'. This was based on TOP supply of 151.2 mmcf/d. At $3.90/mcf x 365 = $215m gas revenue.
Another 1200 bopd/Stubb Creek @ $60/b would be about $26m. In total about $240m revenue.
Oil prices are about $45 so about $6.5m/yr less oil revenue.
AK says he expects revenue in excess of $200m for this year. Mirabaud July note expects $220-$230m which would give that $120m FCF in the CPR. $130m of FCF appears to correspond to about $220-$240m revenue/about 90% gas.
AK working on deals which could add in excess of $40m further FCF which should put FCF at roughly $170m/yr. Might correspond to about $80m/yr new revenue ? - If so revenue by end of 2021 around $300-$320m without any further oil increase - though S/Creek expected to double by July 2021 .
Compare that to Mirabauds October note forecasting revenue of $234m for 2020, $311m for 2021 and $389m for 2022 with EPS of 2.6c/2020, 9.24c/2021 and 15c/2022. At an ex/rate of £1/$1.30 that's 2p EPS for this year, 7p for next year and 11.5p for 2022.
If you consider the above starting base of around 150 mmcf/d and AK and a number of others saying they hope to have all CPF production utilised by this year end and looking to debottleneck this to 220-240 mmcf/d.
AK should be on target for 2021 in getting revenue to the $311m/yr mark if he gets those gas deals in with scope for improvement on that by having Stubb Creek Oil doubled by July of next year.
There's no reason for SAVE to stop at the current CPF full utilisation of 200-240 mmcf/d. Given the huge power demand as well as the compelling switch from diesel to gas power, they could very well double present capacity again to 400+ mmcf/d and with Stubb Creek oil - possibly a future $400m FCF/yr and i expect that push. It's worth noting what the Nigerian chairman said in the AR - that they will look at more CPF for gas. AK anwered at the AGM about new CPF facilities/cost/location which he answered.
The $389m revenue and 15c (11.5p) EPS for 2022 was to see debt reduced to about $240m yet the debt expiry is not all due to end 2025 & 2026.
If they only 'double' the CPF output beyond 2022 the upside should be much larger than envisaged - what value then for just the one business that is Nigeria - 100p ??
This is why i think this is so pathetically undervalued at the current 8p (£80m) and many misread the massive potential of the Accugas business while we have a moan about the Niger delay. That's just slightly over 1X the EPS roughly for 2021. Quite franky i think Accugas/Nigeria will be as big or bigger than the Niger potential after reading the AR.
5,000 bopd to come through on the Niger EPS along with completion of the export pipeline in 2022 which imo will give another 10k bopd access along with potential for multiple exploration success and valu

Nigeria Records 5,420mw Electricity Transmission Peak
August 20, 2020 4:07 pm
The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) said Thursday that the Nigerian power industry had achieved another improved all-time national peak of 5,420.30 megawatts, a landmark in its bid to improve the country’s power supply.
“This is the highest ever recorded in the nation’s power sector to-date, surpassing the previous peak of 5,377.80MW recorded on the 1st of August, 2020, by 42.50MW,” the company said.
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/08/20/nigeria-achieves-5420mw-new-electricity-transmission-peak/

Siemens’ $2 billion power deal to save Nigeria over $1 billion annually – FG
August 20, 2020
The Federal Government of Nigeria has revealed that the Siemens $2 billion power deal, under the Presidential Power Initiative (PPI), will save the nation over $1 billion annually.
The nation, according to the Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed, loses over $1 billion annually due to technical and commercial inefficiencies along the electrification value chain. She said: “The PPI will help eliminate these inefficiencies and unlock economic value for the country.”
Saleh Mamman, Minister of Power, said, “This significant, timely and high-level intervention between President Buhari and Chancellor Merkel addresses critical infrastructure deficits in the value chain and helps reposition the power sector to become more attractive, viable and investable.”
He said, “This Phase 1 focused on “quick-win” measures to increase the end-to-end operational capacity of Nigeria’s electricity grid to 7 GW. Transmission projects proposed under Phase 1 include 132/33 kV Mobile Substations; 132/33 kV(60 MVA) Transformers, and Containerized GIS Substations.”
Phase 1 of the PPI will focus on essential and quick-win measures to increase the system`s operational capacity to 7,000 MW and to significantly reduce the ATC&C financial losses. As part of Phase 1, Siemens will provide general technical training on core competency areas as well as training for employees of Nigeria’s 11 electricity distribution companies, the Transmission Company of Nigeria, and regulators, on all the equipment and software being provided by Siemens. It also includes the upgrading of 105 substations, construction of 70 new substations, installation of 35 new power transformers, laying of 5,109 kilometres of distribution lines and installation of 3,765 distribution transformers in different parts of Nigeria.
Phase 2 will target the remaining network bottlenecks to enable full use of existing generation and distribution capacities, bringing the systems operational capacity to 11,000 MW.
Phase 3 will develop the system up to 25,000 MW in the long-term. This includes upgrades and expansions in both generation, transmission and distribution.

https://nairametrics.com/2020/08/20/siemens-2-billion-power-deal-to-save-nigeria-over-1-billion-annually-fg/

https://www.africaintelligence.com/

I doubt there is an agenda. They simply report from their jounalists on the entire African continent on politics, mining, oil etc with a starting fee of 2500 euros/yr for unlimited access. Simlar to Upstream and some other specialist industry publications.

They say 'Since 18 July, Zenith Energy has not had access to the production site, which is now under the responsibility of SONAREP, the production subsidiary of Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) run by Cyriaque Etroubeka.'

On the 20/7/20 there was an RNS saying 'Anglo African Oil & Gas Congo S.A.U ("AAOG Congo"), continues to operate the Tilapia oilfield on an interim basis following the implementation of a "Plan for the Continuation of Activities" ("PCA") agreed with the national oil authorities.'

Then on 10/8/20 they said by RNS they had returned operatorship to the government.

A bit confusing that the so called PCA didn't last long given the article says that from the 18th July ZEN had no access to the site.

The article could suggest the ministry views ZEN as not having the financial capability. Maybe that can be countered by Zen saying we have a letter of intent for financing at 2.5p though and a chicken and egg situation has arisen. Maybe one party wants to see sufficient finace while the other wants to see the licence as being in the bag before coughing up funds at 2.5p ? All against the back drop of other potential offers from those named in the article.

AEI Article 17/8/20
'Oil minister Tchicaya may stymie Zenith Energy's hopes at Tilapia
The expiry of the Tilapia licence is likely to spell bad news for the businessman Andrea Cattaneo, who thought that he had this producing oil field in the bag.
There is every chance that the renewal of the Tilapia Congolese offshore licence will not go according to plan for Zenith Energy. The Canadian firm, which has acquired the previous operator of Tilapia AAOG Congo, is run by the Italian Andrea Cattaneo, who in a previous incarnation made his money in sock manufacturing. As we revealed, the licence expired on 18 July and the formidable Congolese hydrocarbons director Teresa Goma issued a call for tenders for a new operator to take over the oil field for a 25-year period. Zenith Energy has submitted a bid but will struggle to win the endorsement of Goma.
In a letter dated 4 June (see here), the oil minister, Jean-Marc Thystère Tchicaya rejected Zenith's acquisition of AAOG Congo, arguing that the company did not have the financial capacity to operate its only deposit, namely Tilapia. Tchicaya pointed out that Zenith has been making a loss or only slim profits since 2017 and that it will only supposedly be financially viable from 2021, and yet Cattaneo has told his investors that he is still in charge of operations at Tilapia, which is producing around 30 bpd. Since 18 July, Zenith Energy has not had access to the production site, which is now under the responsibility of SONAREP, the production subsidiary of Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) run by Cyriaque Etroubeka.
Rival companies queue up
Several other firms are in the running to take over Tilapia. They include the local operators Africa Oil and Gas Corp (AOGC) run by Denis Gokana, an advisor to President Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kontinent Congo, as well as the Nigerian juniors Index Petrolube Africa and Atlantic L&D Group, Russia's Zarubezhneft, the Petronas trading arm Petco, and South Africa's Sungu Sungu Petroleum (Africa Intelligence, 29/07/20)
The Congolese oil minister was initially due to announce a new operator for Tilapia on 18 August, but the decision may be put back a few weeks.

Eland with a marginal field in Nigeria came to market at 100p in Sept 2012 and by Jan 2016 had fallen to 21p. Then doubled their shares in issue on the same marginal field licence in the process. It started a share buy back process in 2018 spending about £5.5m to take out 2% and last paid 125p for them - sold to Seplat for 166p in 2019.

Seplat came to market April 2014 at 210p Reached 266p in June 2014. By Jan 2016 it had fallen to 55p and back to 155p by Aug 2018 before down to a low of 37p this March and now at 54p.

Kosmos came to market at 525p in Aug 2017 and rose to 730p (£2.6b) in Oct 2018. By Dec 2018 it was 299p. A year later in Nov 2019 it was 577p. In March this year it had fallen to 59p and back to 216p in June and today 122p.

Yep Savp/Save from 56p down to 7.5p but underlying story unchanged with additional assets. I don't see anything different that makes me change my mind. Share price/volativity/liquidity isn't unique to Save or choice of CEO.

70% of holders ie institutions have averaged 36p. Is there evidence they are heading out the door based on share price alone or lack of growth ?

Secured - not according to AEI that i posted on 29/7.

From AEI 29/07/2020

'Zenith Energy not sole contender for Tilapia licence

Zenith Energy, which bought the former owner of the Tilapia licence, AAOG Congo, in May, is facing competition from seven other companies interested in the oil field, much to the ministry of hydrocarbons' delight as it hopes to raise the bidding.
The race is on for the renewal of the Tilapia licence, previously owned by AAOG Congo, after it expired on 18 July. Andrea Cattaneo, the director general of Canadian Zenith Energy, was able to work his way around Covid-19 flights restrictions and land in Brazzaville at the end of June. Zenith, which bought AAOG in May, wants to secure a 25-year renewal for Tilapia.

Why the buzz?
In mid-June, the Congolese director general of hydrocarbons Teresa Goma made it clear to Zenith that getting a renewal to the licence was not going to be a bed of roses and there were several other contestants in the running. According to our information, these include South African firm Sungu Sungu Petroleum, a pioneer in the shale gas industry in South Africa, and the Nigerian trader Index Petrolube Africa, which has no experience in exploration on the continent. Index Petrolube Africa unsuccessfully tried to acquire the Congolese fields Kombi, Likalala and Libondo II, later won by Perenco after a bitter battle against Total (Africa Intelligence, 23/04/20).
Another Nigerian firm, Atlantic L&D Group, would also like to pick up the Tilapia licence, as would SNPC chairman Denis Gokana's company Africa Oil and Gas Corp (AOGC). They are joined by Kontinent Congo, a subsidiary of the US-based, Kontinent. Kontinent Bongo is headed by Cameroonian national Yaya Moussa, former representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Brazzaville. Petronas' trading arm Petco, and the Russian state-owned Zarubezhneft, make up the last of the contenders interested in the licence.

Bidding up on tax
By making sure Zenith is aware that it is far from the only oil company interested in Tilapia, Goma is hoping to raise how much each firm is willing to put down for the award bonus, which starts at a minimum $5m. Profit oil, the amount shared between the operators and the state after deduction of development costs, will be split evenly between the state and the joint venture, as is often the case with Congolese oil contracts. '

On reading the detail, it would appear that a production asset could be acquired before Niger is in production. I can see the strategy for an emerging 40-50k boepd producer in the making while Niger exploration stays in the background which they hope to develop organically.
Opex "averaged an impressively low $3.70/boe which will see room for improvement as production levels ramp up."
Average gross production for all of H1 was 21,300 boepd.
They have guided for full year production of between 21 to 23k boepd.
To go above the low end 21,000 boepd guidance and to average either 22k or-23k boepd for the year would mean that this 2nd half would actually have to reach and be maintained somewhere between 22,700 - 24,700 boepd.
I expect they will try to nail down a significant acquistion. They again today mention debt, pvt eqty, past deals in accesssing cash/oil traders etc. Distressed assets and Cos selling due to high debt levels. Well if as they and others predict in the next 24 months that there could be a strong rebound in the oil market, those assets won't remain cheap and Save wouldn't be buying at the bottom of the market.

I believe we'll target production assets if not already (and go back to this months article of SAVE also 'in the running' for the 30k bopd producing Occidental assets).
Again if through additional contracts giving us the estimated additional $40m of FCF, then surely that would take the gross Nigeria production to around 30,000 boepd (24k net)
before Stubb Creek is debottlenecked = 1-1.5k bopd,
any marginal field award this year that they've registered for = production/reserves ?,
a potential material producing other country asset,
a future Niger phase 1-2 domestic 1.5k - 5k bopd (from our 33 mmbo 2C),
+ future export pipeline that could possibly allow us another 10k bopd (from our 33 mmbo 2C).

"Savannah is well positioned to potentially take advantage of this situation and that, in doing so, we have several competitive advantages versus many of our peers. Firstly, we have a strong track record of operating, and transacting, in projects of host country strategic importance in Africa. We have an extremely experienced senior management team which has wide operational experience across the Continent. This enables us to demonstrate our capabilities to vendors and regulators and
I believe that this places us in a strong position to source, execute and finance such dividend-enhancing transactions. This said, as ever with new business transactions, it is not possible to predict the exact timing or nature of the opportunities that we will potentially pursue. However, in the current period of financial distress and business model change faced by many oil and gas companies, I believe an abundance of robust, cashflow generative and high-quality assets will potentially become available for acquisition over the course of the next 12 months."

If not already posted or known about - it was also reported in AEI on 17th June that he is looking at Gabon and possible JV with little known Mberi O&G for marginal fields there.

That's Nigeria, Tunisia, Gabon, Congo...all that activity doesn't come cheap. Any word on the PPE ?

'Canadian junior Zenith Energy is scouting for new projects to reboot its output after abandoning its Azerbaijani marginal fields in early March. The company is down 90% on its 2019 turnover. After looking into assets in Congo, Tunisia, and more recently Nigeria - it announced on 16 June that it aimed to take part in a bid round for marginal fields - it now has its sights on Gabon. As Africa Intelligence understands, the company director, Italian entrepreneur Andrea Cattaneo, has been in talks with Gabonese firm Mberi Oil & Gas for months over a project to create a joint venture to operate marginal fields in the country. When contacted, Cattaneo assured that Zenith has not yet undertaken any binding agreements in Gabon but acknowledged that the firm was looking into opportunities in West Africa. '

Niger on hold to 2021 but if you can wait on this, it's got an initial 1500 bopd to 5000 bopd phase 2 at not major cost but New opportunities section interesting - seem to be considered as helping with getting us to dividend and assets at a substatntial discount with sales happening that never would have been considered 2 years ago and how we could buy them. A lot of reading but in the context of them being mentioned barely 2 weeks ago as in the running for Oxys - worth keeping an eye on for production assets and another $40m of FCF expected from gas customers coming on.

Basically August now and guidance of 21-23,000 gross given for the full year.
Contract for up to 35,000 mcf/d (5,800 boepd) to Afam + signature of higher paying 5,000 mcf/d and - "I expect this to result in the addition of further new Gas Sales Agreements over the course of 2020/21. To "size the prize" we would estimate this opportunity to potentially represent more than US$40 million of incremental annualised free cashflow associated with new annualised take-or-pay cash receipts to Accugas. To put this in context the Nigerian Assets have been assessed by the well-respected geo-technical consultancy CGG Services (UK) Ltd ("CGG") as being expected to generate US$130 million of near-term annualised cashflows, on a maintenance adjusted take-or-pay basis." FCF to increase to circa $170M expectation ??

I hope this is the start of promised increased newsflow over the rest of 2020 and the start of decent growth from Accugas and why it was bought. If they knock out an additional $40m of FCF from that, it will be a significant change in fortune.

I honestly don't see the accounts to the end of Dec 2019 as having much relevance 7 full months later at all and as others have said they only had the Nigerian assets for about 7 weeks.

What's happenend in the period Jan - end of June this year would be of more importance but we aren't likely to know the full facts of that until the interims come out. They did give a trading and financial update for 5 of those months to the end of May.

What i want to see is what the plans are for Niger/Nigeria given we are now a full 3 months on since the addmission doc and further on since the all time low oil price which is now around 80% higher as they had said they hoped to do something on the EPS in Niger subject to the oil price and finance within 12 months.
Also almost 5 weeks ago the delay on the Afam contract was down to work on an older NGC pipeline held up by Covid19 and it was said then that this should be sorted in the 'next month or so' - so can they guide on revenue increases ?

At the meeting they said they had registered with certain partners for the marginal bid round so this and any other possible opportunities would be of interest if they mention it and the reason for going for them. Other than that, i see the results to the end of last year as a non starter and the only interest being on the forward outlook which from this weekend will have entered the 8th month of this year.

" Grant Thornton, on the other hand, has steadfastly refused to avail itself of the furlough scheme, for fear of further reputational damage it would cause – following several scandal-stricken years for the country’s largest audit firms. To that end, earlier in the spring, Chief Executive David Dunckley said Grant Thornton would not use the scheme because it was not “appropriate.” Instead, the firm cut the pay and hours of 300 employees but pledged that no employee would be worse off as a result of its cost-cutting measures than if they had been placed on the furlough scheme.
Months later, Grant Thornton has come under fire for seemingly changing that stance, announcing around 70 jobs in its tax and consulting divisions would be made redundant. The sixth largest advisory firm in Britain by revenue made the announcement on the last date employers could apply to use the Government’s furlough scheme, angering some of Grant Thornton’s staff.
A comment from the company sought to address this, stating, “The furlough mechanism was designed to preserve roles that had temporarily diminished or ceased as a result of Covid-19 and where there is a reasonable prospect of that work returning as the UK comes out of lockdown. As these roles at risk were deemed unsustainable in the future, it would be inappropriate for them to be furloughed.”
Some workers disagree with that stance though. Commenting on the news, one employee told the Financial Times, “It is hard to accept that the firm refused assistance from the Government’s job retention scheme… Clearly being on the furlough scheme until October 31 and then facing redundancy is better for an employee than being made redundant in July.”
Grant Thornton has also declined to cut the monthly payments its 190 partners receive from the firm’s profits. Some rivals have cut partner pay by 20-25% to increase cash reserves. In April, for example, PwC said it would take measures to preserve jobs and help external suppliers which were understood to include the delaying profit distributions to partners.
Following that lead may be easier said than done for Grant Thornton’s current leadership, however. CEO Dunckley’s predecessor Sacha Romanovitch was ousted from her role after overhauling the firm’s partnership structure to make it a John Lewis-style profit-sharing scheme for all staff, rather than just partners. The move led to a group of angry partners leaking an unsigned complaint saying she had “misdirected” the firm, and accusing her of pursuing a “socialist agenda.”
With this in mind, and a possible 20% fall in profits currently being forecast at Grant Thornton for this financial year, Dunckley’s room for manoeuvre on cutting partner pay-outs is rapidly diminishing. Despite change at the top, Grant Thornton’s partners have continued to see profit distribution shrink.
https://www.consultancy.uk/news/24860/grant-thornton-announces-covid-19-redundancies

"it now expects to report its 2019 Annual Results in July 2020, rather than 24 June 2020 as previously notified. This is due to the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown in Savannah's countries of operation on the ability of the Company's auditors to access all required information on a timely basis."

Expects is not the same as will thoiugh unfortunately.

Maybe have a sniff at GT instead ?

From AEI 29/07/2020

'Zenith Energy not sole contender for Tilapia licence

Zenith Energy, which bought the former owner of the Tilapia licence, AAOG Congo, in May, is facing competition from seven other companies interested in the oil field, much to the ministry of hydrocarbons' delight as it hopes to raise the bidding.
The race is on for the renewal of the Tilapia licence, previously owned by AAOG Congo, after it expired on 18 July. Andrea Cattaneo, the director general of Canadian Zenith Energy, was able to work his way around Covid-19 flights restrictions and land in Brazzaville at the end of June. Zenith, which bought AAOG in May, wants to secure a 25-year renewal for Tilapia.

Why the buzz?
In mid-June, the Congolese director general of hydrocarbons Teresa Goma made it clear to Zenith that getting a renewal to the licence was not going to be a bed of roses and there were several other contestants in the running. According to our information, these include South African firm Sungu Sungu Petroleum, a pioneer in the shale gas industry in South Africa, and the Nigerian trader Index Petrolube Africa, which has no experience in exploration on the continent. Index Petrolube Africa unsuccessfully tried to acquire the Congolese fields Kombi, Likalala and Libondo II, later won by Perenco after a bitter battle against Total (Africa Intelligence, 23/04/20).
Another Nigerian firm, Atlantic L&D Group, would also like to pick up the Tilapia licence, as would SNPC chairman Denis Gokana's company Africa Oil and Gas Corp (AOGC). They are joined by Kontinent Congo, a subsidiary of the US-based, Kontinent. Kontinent Bongo is headed by Cameroonian national Yaya Moussa, former representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Brazzaville. Petronas' trading arm Petco, and the Russian state-owned Zarubezhneft, make up the last of the contenders interested in the licence.

Bidding up on tax
By making sure Zenith is aware that it is far from the only oil company interested in Tilapia, Goma is hoping to raise how much each firm is willing to put down for the award bonus, which starts at a minimum $5m. Profit oil, the amount shared between the operators and the state after deduction of development costs, will be split evenly between the state and the joint venture, as is often the case with Congolese oil contracts. '