Member Info for zebbo

now at 162

The way things are going the SP will be walked down, then the 278 pence per share will seem like a good deal. Or we could end up giving even more paper away.
SQZ seem desperate for Mercuria's knowledge in order to pivot away from the NS. Either into another geography or renewables. I have looked at Mercuria's other O&G assets. IMO some real low quality early stage operations that SQZ could throw their cash at, whilst taking on Tailwinds debt

Forgot to add with Maurel & Prom (M&P) gearing up to start a potential five-well drilling campaign in Walvis basin late 2023, its all to play for.

GBP could be interesting on a risk reward basis. I also like what is happening in Italy, very understated. Also expect farm in/out news soon.
One thing is guaranteed the SP will pop at some point in the next 3-6 month, just to much going on within the area

Really hard to get a handle on what is really going on and what has been agreed off record between parties. Gas also continues to weaken. If less is used this winter, fill up for 23/24 becomes easier. Also consumers are altering their behavior adding to downside pressure.
Feels like the SP is being supported around these levels, sentiment is very low and should be driving down the SP. If this deal goes through "as is" the cash mountain will disappear and the SP will tank IMO. The only thing guaranteed is the BODs will not loose out regardless of the outcome

There is no decision to make for me, its something vs nothing.

On a positive note other parties were interested, but the backdrop of 4Ds current administration position was/is to complex. Armistice must see very good risk reward profile. I'm expecting positive newsflow through 2023 and for Armistice to sell on at some point for a sizable profit.
I will be buying more on re list, as the odds of an improving SP, should now be tipped in our favour

TW / ************* may tip this again for 2023, as they do every year. Hoping the penny drops with these guys and they come clean and call this a zero sum game. TW is good at calling out shares that will head to zero, except for the ones he tips..hahaha

Thats where we will be heading if this deal see the light of day.

Time for some comms, shareholders would like to move on either way. Personally want £17k of DDDD wiped from my account. Ironically I was in profit by £1k before we went bump..lol

I strongly expect a counter offer as this story unfolds further. SP action in the last few sessions gives you the impression the market believes a counter offer will be made

IMO the 6 month rule is not in effect as the situation now is a materially different

If we get enough votes surely we can invoke an EGM, not sure what the rules are around this though

Looks like we are at 4.7M so far, all bar 1 in the "vote no camp"

Thanks to Horndean Eagle from ADVFN
fwiw I dont think I have heard anyone who is happy with this deal. The share price reaction tells you all you need to know. Larger holders equally not best pleased but willing to wait to see offer document before passing judgement. Liberum are particularly scathing about the deal. Agreeing that it looks way too expensive relative to buybacks, is far too dilutive and too predicated on tax. They believe its a defensive deal by management to ward off Kist. I think Kist would be welcomed back with open arms. At least Austin knows how to allocate capital properly.

Interesting article, thanks for posting the link. Adds a little wider perspective as well

Article says it all.
Vote NO request EGM and sack the BOD for being so incompetent

Question is, what can we do to sink the deal, other than vote NO to the issuance of more shares.

Not 100% clear on the 50% threshold and how that is calculated. Ie are non voters counted as in favour or against. Feels like concerted action is required

Track record / assets look questionable
https://www.mercuria.com/assets/upstream-oil-and-gas

Perhaps they will use SQZ balance sheet to shore up some of these tin pot companies. Looks like 1 traded on AIM, looks like it was a stellar performer....lol
Phoenix Global Resources plc

Kistos, can make an offer based on rule 4 IMHO with no need for 6 months to elapse
iv) where the Takeover Panel has determined that there has been a material change of circumstances.

Is likely our only option, unless a bid materializes for Serica
Lets not kid ourselves, Mercuria will have control of Serica, now they have paper.
It will be Mercuria who will be spending whats on the balance sheet. Mercuria really have cleaned up here on many levels and bluffed out BoD into thinking that they have a good deal.
Deal is terrible

No