Member Info for zebbo

Must start to become a consideration. Buy at £1.30, with shares issued to CY5 holders at the agreed £1.56 conversion rate

WE need the updated PEA. I dont think we have overpaid, the PEA will prove that. Im still adding ATM

Thats how long its been since we last traded at these levels....

My guess is that IIs are re positioning as the company goes from divi king to growth and divi

Reckon this is a done deal with the big shareholders and as PI who wants to hold something that may never go public again

Qu is do some of the big shareholders support delisting??

I think we start building from this oversold position, having massively underperformed our peers.

We have had a run of bad news / news that changes investment decisions for IIs & PIs.

1. The sasa write-down

2. Gone Ex divi, that always leads to some re balancing, especially after point 1

3. We are now moving into a growth phase, where the level of divi may be lower

4. We await the revised PEA, this "should" be a major catalyst assuming the deal goes through

Personally think this is a great deal for CAM and the re rate will follow once the deal is done and there is greater visability around future plans. Also believe 5yrs is a bit of a red herring considering this is brownfield site

This will go through, there is very little / no reason for regulatory intervention here. Major shareholders will already be aligned

Just long timeline, pinning the share back a little

Always a chance someone comes in over the top with £6.50+ bid

At this price still worth a punt imo

Maybe, but it may not be accepted. I think TATE will hold out for more.....6.50?

RE

The 9.9% Call Option "Poison Pill": CAML secured a Call Option Deed over Ocean Partners’ 9.9% stake. If a rival launches a superior bid, CAML can forcibly buy these shares. Holding a physical 9.9% stake gives CAML a near-insurmountable veto over any competitor under Australian scheme rules (which require 75% approval).

This should seal the deal

Few disgruntled retail investors, yet to see the wood for the trees

Sharetrader - based on your responses I suggest you are a retail investor. However let look at the reality

The argument for a standalone development of the Chibougamau project overlooks the capital structure realities facing CY5 as a junior explorer. If we assume the inflation-adjusted initial CapEx of C$360 million (c A$395 million) A standalone development would introduce a severe equity dilution for CY5 shareholders:

1. The current financing deficit: Standard project financing for an underground mine requires a minimum equity component of 35% to 40% to secure the remaining debt. For CY5, this means raising at least A$140 million to A$160 million in pure equity.

2. The Dilution Impact: With a pre-announcement market capitalization of roughly A$145 million, raising A$150 million via a standard development equity placement would require issuing over 1.5 billion new shares. This would more than double the current share count, heavily diluting existing holders before production even begins.

3. CAML is not a micro-cap; its a debt-free producer that generated US$56 million in free cash flow in its last financial year and maintains a US$120 million credit facility.Under the proposed Scheme of Arrangement

4. CY5 shareholders avoid the standalone funding risk while retaining a 30% stake in the combined, enlarged group. The offer also provides an immediate 60% market premium over the pre-announcement price, backed by an Independent Expert's Report. This includes a committed path to a TSX listing to capture North American institutional liquidity.

A "No" vote eliminates the funding certainty provided by a cash-generative partner, returning CY5 to the junior equity markets to fund both ongoing exploration and eventual development. So your shares in CY5 could end up being c5c or lower as the begging bowl gets passed around and a cycle of constant dilution follows. Even if production was achieved your shares may never hit double figures

IMO this is really simple economics based on reality.

To add the Analysts' 44c target prices are completely meaningless blue-sky numbers if you don't have the cash to build the mine.

Bottom line - A 'No' vote traps CY5 holders in the highly dilutive junior explorer death-loop

@Tungsten totally disagree... + We all have choices. If you dont trust the management, just sell up, job done

What we have will be larger "income" only shareholders reducing, only to be expected. Overtime this should balance and is more of an opportunity for those that support more exploration/dev + income

Re the deal if CY5 go it alone you would be looking at mass dilution and could end up with shares being a few cents in 3-5 years time. That is the reality. This deal gives a CY5 shareholders a very good premium and lots of potential upside. Thats why CAM have 30% support thus far. No brainer really

Expect this to complete in Q4 and already is underway. This will show the following and will be a major catalyst for the SP.

If the NPV is good (I expect it will be with CAM completing DD) and capex looks manageable from the balance sheet. I would expect the market to react positively and start reflecting this back in the SP

I think 5yrs is being very conservative for a brownfield site. CAM playing it safe

Tungsteninvestor - you have posted the same message 3 times "No one wants to wait 5 years to first production " along with "its going to £1"

Answer = invest elsewhere

Personally, this deal looks great for all shareholders. The market has yet to realise the potential, the updated PEA should help focus minds. I dont expect CAM to get too bullish before the deal closes, for obvious reasons.....

Seen the other post re cygnus shareholders getting the short end of the deal (I dont think they understand the deal structure being proposed). If its such a poor deal why have CAM secured 30% of the vote. History, ability, community focus etc etc

Talk of others stepping in....why have they not stepped in before now?

++ if Chibougamau ultimately creates substantial value, former Cygnus shareholders retain a meaningful share of that upside. This is a great deal for both sets of holders

Perhaps they should sell up and release the IP value. I do question their deal making capability. Big on sales leads/prospects etc little on conversion.

Very disappointing, but not worth selling at this level

Lots of things going in the wrong direction, gearing position for one. This should be wound up whilst we still have a discount to NAV (that shrinks by the day)

In a qtr....not good. However we get 9-11% divi

They should sell up asap

Today's deal looks like a genuine game-changer IMO. We have acquired a large-scale "brownfield" project, with much of the infrastructure inc mill in place, substantially reducing greenfield related costs / risks. While capital will be required to bring the project into production, we have a pristine balance sheet with an excellent track record re capital allocation and shareholder returns.

Brownfield projects can reach production significantly faster than new mine developments (5Yrs is very conservative), potentially bringing meaningful cash flow forward. This acquisition has the potential to materially increase CAML's production profile, earnings power and NAV over the coming years.

Bonus being management stating its intention to maintain the current dividend policy. In summary a transformational growth project for tomorrow. Lets hope it goes through ok, looks like a bargain to me. Regards the SP we should see some gradual re rate + we have Kaz exploration, that could throw up a gem