Member Info for zebbo

NewK - what Im driving at, is what there appears to be a new "lower range" for oil. We have entered a different macro paradigm with our mate trump. For example HBR are now at their baseline forecast. SQZ are not immuned, unless you know different

I have yet to crunch the numbers, but recent oil/gas prices and revised O&G f'casts may mean lean times ahead. The unfolding macro may drive fcast down lower yet. I dont see UK oilers having enough FCF to throw off a divi for the forseeable. Be interested in others thoughts, but 65 brent / 80 Uk gas must be near break even

Yet to be confirmed, however 2026 mentioned on the last update

HBR need to provide revised guidance asap. Macro has changed along with global demand and production. I would hope we get some insight for or by the AGM

On the plus side, this should help stimulate more consolidation. Consume or be consumed.....

FTSE100 - We are down 45% over the year, only bettered by Vistry at 49%. Sad state of affairs, this cannot go on surely. The BoD need to start making some strategic moves......

Just to finish, divi cost is $455m per year, so as things stand today it would be sustainable, around 1 - 1.2 x covered

Just to add that gas is also below the base case of $11 per mscf, c$37.53 per MWh. Price just now $35.44 MWh

Taking to account brent at c$64, I estimate current FCF to be c$520m. Excluding hedges and f'cast further operational efficiencies

Ive not factored ELP specifically, just looking at raw FCF.

EPL is likely to stay mid term, as I cannot see gas droping to 54p per therm for 6 mths

Brent Oil Price ($/bbl) Estimated FCF ($ million)

80 1,000

75 885

70 770

65 655

60 540

55 425

50 310

Dividend remains covered by FCF down to an oil price of approximately $60/bbl. Below this threshold, the FCF may not sufficiently cover the dividend, potentially impacting dividend sustainability.​

Mitigating Factors -

Hedging Strategy: Harbour Energy has hedged a portion of its 2025 production, securing oil at an average price of $77/bbl and European gas at $14/mscf. ​

Harbour Energy's dividend appears sustainable at Brent oil prices down to around $60/bbl, considering current hedging and operational efficiencies.

Thats where I reckon oil will trade based on the current Macro / recession ...Unless we get some big geo spat, I cannot see the upside for oil.

Be interesting what this range means for HBR cash flow model, as we will be trading at worst case scenario (based on the current plan) taking oil and gas into consideration. Any thoughts / number crunchers out there

Agree Mike, however with the AGM coming up, perhaps they want a voice. At some point the other shares may have voting rights. Happy for someone to clarify if thats the case

Hmm not sure I believe this 100%. Permian drillers need $60-70 to break even dependant on company size and drill location etc. That is surely going to factor, as the Permian produces c8% of global oil

How will this pan out in reality? The price of oil and gas is the price of oil and gas. I see the divi coming under renewed pressure unless they cut capex and opex. Not to mention our current debt position. Would not be surprised to see the SP dip further as the AGM is likely to be a blood letting exercise .Qu, would Shell step in if BPs SP hits £3. Going to be interesting next week

As of April 2025, LetterOne (L1) holds approximately 14.9% of Harbour Energy, stemming from the September 2024 acquisition of Wintershall Dea's non-Russian assets. This stake comprises non-voting, non-listed convertible shares, which are subject to specific conditions for conversion into ordinary shares. Notably, L1 is restricted from owning more than 19.99% of Harbour's issued share capital until certain regulatory approvals are obtained

So if we add 3.3%, L1 have 18.2%. There must be some drivers behind the scenes here, interesting

Dream on mate, the way the macro is playing out IMO I see 65 brent being a reasonable average for 2025. But who knows - Iran, OPEC, LNG tariffs? etc

Reckon HBR are going have to re model high and low cases for oil. High being $70, low being $50 (IMHO) reflecting the new order of things. Not sure how future divi's are going to pan out against a 50-70 range. Feels like current gas rates are going to hold up

Its not down to the fed to fix unless credit starts to go pear shaped.

As if the world does not have enough issues to deal with, wtf is wrong with this guy, no thought, no plan, no sense of the true impact. How can one person upend world trade/markets

Can only loose 10p per day for the next 15 days, then we are done :-(

Annual General Meeting to be held on 8 May 2025