Valuation Analysis10 Oct 2020 19:15
Fag packet valuation. Estimation based various presentations produced over the last ~6 months – updated Oct 10th 2020
hVIVO - Imutex, PrepBio + Repurposed Influensa rolled up sale £100 - £500m – Fcast £200m
*Note - hVIVO, 2 years ago was valued at £175m and a couple of offers where made for the business. Woodford would not sell for less than £400m, helps provide perspective for hVIVO
hVIVO & VEN fcast 20/21 revenue pipeline hVIVO & VEN = £160m (conservative)
Pipeline revenue valued at a very modest 2 x earnings = £320m
Genomic Health data – high margin licence – 1 sample could be worth £2-3k. Not sure how many samples we have. Example of an outright sale, Roche paid Foundation Med $5B for 200k samples
*Note could be sold off as separate entity
Genomic Health – Nominal value attributed – Based on possible multiple deals for data access £50m ** Genomic Health which could be far bigger based on past pharma deals as exampled above
Summary total - £570M
Deeper look at the Imutex valuation based on basic factual analysis (figs ~4 months old ie July 2020)
Imutex has 2 main competitors for Universal Flu Vaccine Biondfax Bio & FluGen. Both these companies are 100% focused on the Flu vaccine. In order of progress
1. BiondFax - in phase 3 trials - Mkt cap ~$500M Nas listing. SP gone from $7 April - $43 now
2. Imutex - Completed phase 2, prep for phase 3 - Mkt cap TBC
3. FluGen - in Phase 2 - Mkt cap ~$412M Nas listing
If we float on Nas not only would we have our Universal flue vacine. Lets value between the Biond & FluGen - ~$450M. Then roll in the Mosquito vaccine Phase 1 comp - The vaccine, if it pans out, would protect against all of the pathogens the insects inject into humans – malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Zika, yellow fever, West Nile, Mayaro viruses and anything else that may emerge. Vaccine like this would be “the Holy Grail.” VALUE TBC lets say $50M
Then if we roll in PrepBio & Influenza Immune Modulator, value unknown - Value at $5M nominal value.
So based on that analysis we could have a Nas value somewhere North of $500M
Just highlights how undervalued we are and this is just for non core assets. Net to OO should be $200-300M
Sign In
Follow the stocks
