Member Info for zccax77

Watch shorts capitulate

Each share has a NAV of 1400p minus the leasehold improvements of 236p gives me value of 1150p. The intangibles is their computer system of 193p per share and I consider that as a real asset however the 4m of goodwill is a soft area which I would disregard. The II’s will happily fund this at this level they know what they are getting

That’s right HH. Most of these novices focusing on the PE ratio. Look at what you are getting for your 500p on the balance sheet, the P&l is just noise for a growth oriented challenger.

I am doubtful this sp will go above £10 unless there is a complete cull of the BoD and a change in strategy. Looking at the R&A is shocking. They have 66 branches, per note 12 they have leasehold improvements of 275m so that is 4m per branch which is mental. This company can do well but under New leadership

I can see fireworks, hope shorts are prepared:

"In Metro’s case it is not such an issue as its top 40 investors own more than 95 per cent of its register. Another factor is that Metro’s investors are overwhelmingly American and so more used to placings than rights issues."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ailing-lender-metro-bank-seeks-backer-with-350m-to-spare-fjh03ssgh

Well you can't blame them for trying it on, the BoD are their own worst enemy. Letting the sp fall so much day in day out, how did you think the shorters would use this to their advantage. 1 more week until the AGM, let's see how that pan's out.

Metro have 66 stores, they paid Interarch £21mil. I cannot fathom what they did for 300k per store, when they are exactly the same as the US ones. Daylight robbery.

The regulators will force MTROs hand. The whole debacle is due to the inaction over the RI. A bank run looks bad on them.

Expect an RNS within the next 24-48hrs. The last thing the FCA need is another Northern Rock. They must be furious with the delays and what they see in the media.

PE is not an accurate way to value growth stage companies especially banks and insurance companies. Best to look at P/BV

That’s right mtro have no legacy liabilities like dB pension schemes. They can shutter their doors tomorrow and we are likely to see atleast 800p a share as a distribution within 5 years. Whatever happens we are likely to get substantially more than 500p a share.

Now expect an RNS on Monday/Tuesday instead of the latter part of next week. The FCA won't want another Northern Rock on their hands, they will force Metro's hand.

Management are clearly inept!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/12/metro-bank-quashes-false-rumours-of-financial-instability-

The shorters will be getting nervous, the 11.7% above 0.5% and those below 0.5% will be looking at the daily trading volumes and pondering the impact if they all chose to exit at once. Remember when FMR sold 2% of their holding last week the sp fell by 16% at one point. Like another poster pointed out the other day shorting this at this level is now a crowded trade. Some of the shorts have made a lot of money on this already, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that.

They growth plans will be hampered since I doubt they will be able to now issue the 500m MREL's at anything below usurious interest rates, all again due to their complete miss-handling of this rights issue. The market now thinks of MTRO has a failing bank.

I doubt it, the brand has been shot to pieces due to management inaction over the last few months. Most challenger banks trade at 1x BV. MTRO is valued at 0.4X BV. The difference is partly due to the RI's discount and partly "negative" goodwill in relation to the brand which has been decimated over the last few weeks. I would be stumped if the two chief clowns arn't voted off on the 21st, though based on their US based investor base I doubt they will.

I can only assume the true level is above 20% if we include the amounts below 0.5%. I wonder when the will close, if they all exit at the same time, could see some interesting charts like we did with PFG.

The part of the loan book which they need to sell requires them to put aside too much capital, they plan to replace that part of their risky assets with more vanilla mortgages which requires them to set aside less capital. This is a good move considering what has happened in the last few months. They should have done this before announcing any RI.

Doubt there will be a RNS until the price is agreed, and then the fun begins.

This seems all very much orchestrated.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/05/11/metro-bank-handed-reprieve-legal-threat-recedes/