Member Info for zccax77

Rupans they were valuing AICL at 3-400M correct, but since the pandemic we have enjoyed dividends of about 100M from AICL. Given where SBRE trades at, I think AICL could be sold for double the 80-90M which was agreed when things finally settle down. The size of Roger's loan is 85M so I think that number was the final agreed transaction price before being aborted.

I don't think you can really blame the BoD for not selling AICL, since this business gives them a lot of optionality when setting prices with the panel and therefore having it is important from a strategic perspective. Therefore to some extent it sets the brokerage prices for motor.

In 2021 they merged and integrated Titan into Saga's travel business with 10-15M of restructing costs. If they had not done this they could have tried selling that now. Again poor timing and foresight.

Re AICL, I think they didn't sell mainly as a result of seeing them increasing rates by 60% and realising that this is profit in the buyers pocket in the next 36 months. This was the right decision, taking Rogers Money even at a coupon of 10%+ is better value than selling right now. BTW the 2026 bonds currently trade at a rate of 15%+.

They generated 17.7m of exceptional below the line losses in H1, food for thought.

What this business needs is a cost cutter, Euan talks a good game but when you see the numbers you know he does not run a tight ship.

I hope so, we will only know in 6 months time whether the those things come to fruitition. I would rather wait and see then jump in now and get trapped again for the third time.

The BoD really have form here in terms of timing, they tried to sell Titan travel during the pandemic for 100m and failed and now they are tried to sell an underwriter in the softest market I have seen in the last 20 years.

Personally I think this is an amazing business, but completely let down by the BoD. Just look at how out of control some of the expenses are in the broking divisions.

no different to what we have seen before. big promises which then get forgotten. this is a good business from a revenue perspective but unfortunately the bod are bad at managing expenses and very good at ******* money away on useless pet projects.

They should have been reducing costs 3 years ago. Headline revenue looks good, the expense numbers look bloated.

The CFO likely got fed up with Euan and decided to jump ship to be replace by a lightweight.

Uncle Roger being generous and increasing the RCF to 85m. Very kind of him.

So about a 1bn euros in EBIT for FY? how is that a good result when compared to competitors like Jet2?

They have 5 people sitting in investor relations and this is the tripe they have provided with no real numbers or ranges. I think heads need to roll for this.

They should just put it in run-off and just focus on home, travel and PMI. The latter two being the most profitable.

Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12475591/Spirit-Adventure-cruise-ship-Cornish-town-999-passengers-day-trip.html#comments

2.5% and 5% sound low. What I then can't understand is why they pay 101m Euros a quarter on cash interest.

See slide 16:

https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Presentations/2023/20230808_FY23-Q3-Results-Presentation_Website.pdf-93adfff0372c8725129cefa80fcfd1e1.pdf

Admiral lost 7% of the policies, so did Saga and DLG. I am curious as to where these punters are going?

Strange they did not mention anything re the underwriting result. I know in the past they said it would be flat.

£135m is a lot of money for Saas, maybe we should invest in this Saas company instead of Thg.

I was listening to Tui's results yesterday and they were saying Europeans were opting for shorthaul (narrowbody) travel mainly as a result of hotel prices in the US and Carribean doubling in price, primarily driven by demand from US punters.

I think you are including the notional interest on the Euro 2.9bn IFRS16 lease liabilities as an actual cash interest item. They are not.

https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Presentations/2023/20230213_FY23-Q1-Results-Presentation_Website_Final.pdf0-c7d15fb29a2af8b12ddb4328978f2ff6.pdf

I looked it up trading ebitda for tours lost about £93m over the covid period. Historically it made about £25m pa.

I agree with BB that the risk adjusted returns on offer are poor since when 'events' happen the costs can be massive. Look at TUI and how much cash that has consumed during covid, and at the best of times made only 500m on revenues of 19bn. Not worth the risk.

10%+ is not too dissimilar to what the 2024 bonds are trading for. Carnival recently borrowed at a rate of 15%.

As we have indicated previously, we have decided to focus on Insurance Broking and to sell our Insurance Underwriting business, a move that will reduce the risk we take and release capital and allow us to further reduce our debt. With this in mind, I was pleased to be able to provide a £50m facility to give the Company additional flexibility.

Looks like Uncle Rog will put his money where his mouth is.