Member Info for zccax77

Saga have an average per diem of £368 for 2024 compare that to £140 for P&O, so they are more than twice as expensive.

Alnwick,

What is the occupancy like on the Seaborn cruises? plus what would you say was the average age of the passengers?

How can they be so inefficient:

"This would also leave Tui's tour operating Ebit margin at just 2%, well below peers, such as Jet2 at 8% and easyJet Holidays at 11%."

The main reason for the decline is GDPR. They can no longer spam mail old folk into buying their policies.

A JV is when you own 50% of a business. Therefore in order to do that they need a valuation for the business. That business has to be worth atleast £1bn enterprise value, so £0.6bn equity.

How much do you think we will get for selling this business?

They own four 25 year old ships. I doubt they have the capital, if they did then they need to replace their own fleet soon.

Will sir Roger be happy about losing the ships from Folkestone?

At £360 per diem, these ships should be the most profitable in the UK, yet they barely will make £30-40m EBITDA pa each. It would be better to sell the entire business to someone who can leverage it and increase the fleet size. Saga management are too incompetent to get anything right.

They could have sold titan travel now for £100m but instead decided to consolidate the business within the wider saga travel business in 2021, spent about £20m in restructuring costs at the time. Euan was truly clueless

What Sir Roger is charging is cheaper than getting commerical rates from the banks, the 2% arrangement fee is similar to what the banks usually charge, the chairman did not conjer it out of thin air. Even Saga's 2026 bonds are trading at 80% of Par. Add that to the 5.5% coupon and see what YTM you get.

You see the 10% interest on the De Haan loan is only £5m, and that is if they utilise the facility, most RCF's are not fully utilised.

If they refinanced the ship debt, it would likely be an additional £20m a year. The current rate on the ship debt is about 4% pa for the next decade or so. If they refinanced this they would likely pay 8+%. Thats a lot more money over the term of the loan.

Billzo, can you quantify how much they spent on these services? I just can't see the numbers anywhere in the accounts or is not obvious.

Don't worry the price will trend towards 30p, you will be able to fill up to your hearts desire.

Good money after bad.

They did not reduce headcount nor did they claim furlough, the latter would have been worth 50M, weird that is the amount they need for working capital purposes post payment of the 150m bond.

Thanks Hounddog10, that is a great explanation.

I think you forgot to add the client relations as a asset, let's say a conservative 100gbp for each client (only 1.3m of these are current accounts) so about gbp270m (2.7m *100) which reduces the deficit slightly.

What I can't understand is why after over 3 years of being on the job he is only now talking about cost control. I wish we can give him the boot, but I fear Roger won't allow it since he got him back on board the sinking ship.

The bondholders must be crazy pumping in 600m, even if the current shareholders were wiped out the market would only value their new equity at between 20-25% of book value, so they would be taking a loss of 450m on day one (on the provisio the entire amount is equity). Show me a bank in the UK which trades above book value even VMUK and BARC trade at 33% of book value.

Plenty of time to buy, their next update is in late January.

I plan to sell stuff and top up here as a result. De Haan ultimately is backstopping this and the presentation they did was very bullish from a revenue and profit perspective albeit for YE 2025 (pinch of salt I know).