Member Info for zac0_4

lti - I take your point. My initial purchase was in May 17, and I have continually added since. Hence my overall return to date of 5.5%.

Whilst an investment in May 17 would have returned 26.5% in dividends to date, that initial capital investment would be worth 12.5% less today than when invested. So, for me, whether I decide to sell or not the value of my capital has reduced.

Gerry557 - thanks for taking the time to respond. You are correct when you say that there are times when the market drags everything down. Covid being an example. It's how investments recover from these events and the overall total return that's delivered that's important to me.

During 2020 calendar year the total return here was around -4%. If I compare that with some of my other holdings that performance was poor. However, 2020 was a strange year so a 4% loss was not the end of the world. But to continue to stagnate through 2021 is unacceptable. Whilst some other holdings have continued to perform well my fear for HFEL is that it's going to turn out to be another income paying holding that flatters with the level of income on offer but continues to erode your capital along the way.

I have a considerable holding here. I first purchased in May 2017. Since then I've received dividends to the value of 14.6% of my total investment but have surrendered 9.1% of my capital. So, overall a total return of 5.5% in over 4 years. That's why I'm asking myself whether this is actually a good investment or if I'm simply being fooled by the level of dividend on offer.

Is it good value? I'm beginning to really question whether it is. On the basis that you can't really use 2020 as a realistic comparison I've gone back to July 2019.

Had you invested then you'd have received dividends to the value of approximately 12% of your investment. In return your capital would be 17% less in value.

That's not good value in my book.

I have dividend payments due on Friday and intended to top up my holding here. After looking at performance over the last 2 years, and further, I'm beginning to wonder whether this is the best place for a further investment.

'Guidance as you put it is for a cash flow deficit for q2. And BP issued that guidance on 28th April when they would have had pretty much transparency with regards to both volumes and oil price for the remaining 2 months of the quarter.

Depends what you mean by 'tech' stocks. Why would you sell your holding in, say, Microsoft, PayPal, Google or Facebook and buy into BP?

It might be difficult to see how they'll have a cash flow deficit in q2, but that was their own forecast issued towards the end of April. So, effectively a third into the quarter!

BP have stated they will reduce output by 40% by 2030 ie 8.5 years. That's the issue. Not whether demand will increase, decline or stay the same.

It's on the basis of the above, plus lack of clarity around future costs, revenue and profits from renewables, that will cause the share price to remain depressed. Only my opinion.

"Feel the dividend baby!"

What an absolutely nonsense statement. The only people that comment is attributed to will be current holders who bought in at sub £3, or people who intend to buy around current levels.

True long term holders won't agree with the sentiment. BP for me has reduced my income returns by 50% and destroyed my capital by 45%

A truly shocking investment from my perspective!!

But I guess you win some and lose some!

Hi jb999 - I have gone through their strategy plan and the ambitions are fine. It's relatively easy for the market to put a value on the loss of 40% of existing business.

However, at present it's difficult to quantify future revenues and profitability from renewable and also costs associated with the transition.

Until all that is known how can a true value be attributed to the business?

BP have stated that revenues from fossil fuels will decline by 40% by the end of the decade. Yes, a 40% reduction over the next 8.5 years.

Currently there's not enough clarity as to how this loss of revenue, and profit, will replaced.

Until there is I can't see any meaningful recovery in the value of the business.

I used to work for a subsidiary of Spirent, or Bowthorpe as it was then. I can remember this being over £7.00 per share. Then it collapsed to around 10p. A long, long time ago.

I'll bet you are! Out of interest what was your sell price and did you escape with a profit?

Although the dividend is fixed at 5.25c per quarter the actual payment we receive is dependent upon the exchange rate with the dollar.

And don't forget the yield is only above 5% because the share price has collapsed! Let's not kid ourselves!!

It will be exactly the same as last quarter.

It's not up to online businesses to 'share value' with the like of Vodafone and BT etc. It's for Vodafone and BT etc to exploit growing online traffic to generate profit. Something both seem unable to do sufficiently well.

meshtrader - not sure I totally agree with your view. Having said that I know no more than anyone else!

I cannot see how the FTSE can close the gap with the US market simply due to the companies involved in both indicies. The FTSE contains, in my opinion, old style businesses that are having to adapt and reinvent themselves. Oil, gas and tobacco spring to mind.

The US has numerous businesses who are driving change and shaping the future.

As for technology shares, well what is a 'technology' share? Amazon - online retailer, Google and Facebook - online advertisers, Intuit - accounting software, Microsoft - computer operating systems, Paypal - payment services. I could go on.

They're not technology shares in my view they're simply businesses that are utilising available technology to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their businesses.

"shareholders will in return see their shares appreciate in value . . ."

Well that would make a pleasant change!!!!

One of the reasons I've recently taken a position in the L&G Global Thematics fund!

"As soon as results announced at the beginning of August we will commence a big buy back of cheap shares which will push the prices up . . ."

I'm not sure what figure you have in mind, but if it's around the same level as q2 buy-back ie $500m it equates to around 0.7% of the current market cap.

It's not exactly going to send the share price soaring, is it?

However, on the basis that they forecast a cash flow deficit for q2, I see no chance of a doubling in share buy back value in q3.

Not trying to be awkward just factual.