Member Info for zac0_4

Strictly - "Given that decent house builders, over the long term, make around an average annual 15% return on equity, this then gives an overall long term average investment return ~ albeit a pretty bumpy one, taken year to year based on share prices, and not everyone can cope with that ~ of around 20% a year"

Well that statement doesn't apply to TW, does it? Over the last 5 years total returns have averaged about 7.5% pa over the period. That's a massive difference to the 20% annualised returns you indicate.

TinkerT - the share price was also above £5 in q4 2019! We are years, if ever, of getting back to that level. That's why some people are impatient!!

Wigan Warriors - as I was reading your post I was asking myself why you still hold! And there was the answer in the last paragraph!!

I hope you're making use of your annual cgt allowance . . . and your spouse's if you're married.

Good luck.

I was a long term holder here and finally bit the bullet and sold in June 2020 at £1.61 per share. At that point I was sitting on a capital loss of -14% but had enjoyed dividends to the tune of +21%, so left after many years with a small +7% overall gain. I'd come to the conclusion that simply sitting and waiting for a single share to finally deliver some meaningful growth was, for me, a waste of time.

What did I reinvest my proceeds in? Well, I just put them in a global equity fund, Legal & General International Index Trust. The result? Well if I'd have continued to hold here my capital would today be a further -5% less, whilst my holding in the L&G fund has grown by +34%.

I've only posted this to highlight that sometimes sitting and holding is not always the best strategy. It depend what you're holding. Hopefully, some food for thought and good luck with your investing.

And exactly how much revenue has been gained from the considerable renewable investments that have been made? I'm struggling to establish a figure.

With all this positivity I'm amazed this is still trading around 30% lower than its pre-pandemic level!!!!!

Stockready1 - of course the stated reduction in output could be amended. But currently a 40% reduction in output is what's stated. I hope your optimism is fulfilled, certainly before q2 2022 as that's currently the target date I've set to make a decision on whether to sell my position here or continue to hold. And of course that target could change. Good luck!

Me too. I can't help feeling this has been rerated by the market based on future direction. After all here's a company that has stated that it plans to reduce output of its main means of income by 40% over the next 9 years!

yh11-shx "Next week’s results will catapult bp shares price to something more realistic!"

And what would that be?

Gavster-NBC - "Continuing to pursue the high yielding holdings is good IMO, and what's expected TBH. I'll hold and DRIP the dividends. Any thoughts ?"

Before I give my thoughts I will state that my holding here currently represents 7.9% of my portfolio. I first bought into HFEL in May17 and have added continuously ever since. My capital return to date is -14%, however I've received dividends to date of around +15% of the value of my original holding. So, overall about break even.

My portfolio is split between income paying holdings (HFEL, HHI, MRCH, EAT, NCYF, LGEN, BP & Shell) and a number of investment funds.

I've been investing for many years. My data continually tells me that investing for income is a mugs game! But here I am carrying on doing it! Year after year my general global equity funds outperform all of my dividend paying holdings hands down. Here's a very basic example. Look at the performance here (including dividends) over 1yr, 3yr and 5 yr periods - +9%, +12%, +16%. Now compare the performance of my holding in a global equity tracker fund (L&G International Index) over the same periods - +30%, +57%, +81%. The data keeps telling me there's no comparison.

I keep hearing that 'value' stocks will have their day and 'growth' stocks will start to struggle due to inflationary pressures. For me strong businesses will continue to deliver across all economic cycles. My problem here is that my holding today will deliver 7%+ over the next 12 months, providing the dividend remains in tact, and there now appears some question around that. That's of course if the share price doesn't continue to decline! Dividend paying holdings . . . I'm beginning to question their overall performance!

"neither of you know what's going to happen here" . . . I've got news for you . . . nobody knows what the share price will be at the year end.

For me something has fundamentally changed with this share. I'm judging all of my holdings performance over a 2 year period (2019 to date) as judging performance over 12 months is meaningless to me. If I look at Brent crude prices Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 there has been a (roughly) 25% increase in crude oil prices. Compare the share price over the same period and we're looking at a 29% decline.

What's changed? The dividend? . . . I'm not convinced that this is the key factor, although I maybe wrong. I'm learning towards believing that the market has re-rated the share price based on future projected earnings factoring in a 'green' transition.

What will I do? What I always do. I'll simply sit tight and hold. Probably until at least Q2 2022 or the oil price starts to head south.

BPInvestor - my figures come directly from a spreadsheet on the BP investor website! I think it's updated weekly. it can be found at the bottom of the page showing annual buy backs.

Just to add to my previous post, the figures average out buy backs at £3.14 per share.

BPinvestor - thanks for the info. However, I think your numbers look light. From 2nd August to 15th October BP have reported share buybacks of 266m shares totaling $1.151bn, or £834m assuming an average exchange rate of £1.38 v $1.00.

Your figure is to date so at least another 3 days to be added on top of the above figures.

Charlie156 - Hi, I've used the following data:
Q1 - 0m
Q2 - 115m
Q3 - 221m
Q4 - 46m
Ytd - 382m

Cheers

Charlie156 - "With 9 trading days till results, BP has spent £852 million on 273 million shares at an average price of £3.12 . . ."

I agree with your average price per share but they appear to have bought back 382m shares at a cost of £1,196m year to date. So, about 1.9% of shares in issue at the start of the year.

Stockready1 - all good, thanks. Hope all's well with you. Nothing has changed from my perspective. I'm still heavily invested in funds and trusts. I aim to hold BP until q2 2022 and will review my position then.

I'm nowhere near as bullish as you are here and will be happy to see somewhere around £4 by the year end, although I don't think that's a given!

Are people for real predicting / holding for £10 per share? I'd be happy with some meaningful headway being made towards the 55% growth required to get the share price back to levels achieved in 2019! Step by step and review at regular intervals. Let's not get too carried away!!

. . . the nett effect of the buy backs in q3. During q1 and q2 BP bought back 115m shares. However, they issued 75m new shares. So a nett reduction of only 40m shares, or 0.20% of the share capital. I hope this improves!!

£3.54 Emerald
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U53RN4me "Why do people obsess about the share price of a company like BP??? Surely it's the dividend payments that should be the main concern?" - No. Your main concern should be the total return on your investment.