Member Info for Yumeria

I have left the boat at 870 pences, with a good loss. I am still quite puzzled on why this stock is so hated. But it can go on like this for a long time.

I still think the company is a good company with a reliable business model. But market think otherwise ...

Well, support is around 860-880, so at 860 we are nearly under.

not sure on the how and the why, but if we go under 858 it could be a blood bath.

Well, we are now in the 880. Problem is that seems there is no floor. Still quite puzzled on why this equity is so hated.

It is not directly impacted by IA. At current price PER is around 10.4, and P/FCF is 11.5. Before buyback.

There is no particular news.

For the moment, this stock is the perfect textbook on how to loose money on market sentiment :)

@Danger_Mouse : I was talking to long term hold shareholder. No need to check the bip today because as you said, it is normal.

I am not a short :)

Today there is no buyer. SP could go really down. Better not looking at your trading account for the day :)

If they buy 19 000 share a day at 910 pences, they will spend 171K£ a day. They will need around 250 day to use the full amount of 42,5 M£. Since there is 52 week a year, 5 days open except for 10 bank holiday, the stock exchange will be open 250. Their trading plan is quite simple : Buying around 170K$ a day without looking a the stock price.

I suspect that they even split their trade equaly during the day.

Not sure anything major will happen before FY financial statement are out. There is not that much buyers for this equity unfortunetaly. I hold, without add or sell. Target is 1400 pences by 2027 IF there is no business downside. In fact 2026 guidance will be crucial.

Well, the price is now down to 903.5, we have lost like 57 pences since the opening after the trading update. The message send here by the market is quite clear : This stock is pure garbage.

Why is it pure garbage is however not explained by anything. At this SP, market cap is 831M£. Buy back will write off more than 5% of that each year, meaning that EPS will have a same positif trend without doing anything more.

Adjusted PER is 9.5. It is cheaper than many others compagny without growth and without buyback.

I concur that a PE exit could happen in 2026, which for me is not a good news. If they offer 12 pences they will have it, and the business value is much higher imo.

Well the trading update is here, nothing news IMO from the business. Ebitda and EPS are withing consensus range. Buyback program and dividend for 2026 and 2027 are a good thing. Cash generation is strong.

Let see how the market will react.

@You_Having_a_Laugh : Did you open the FS before making your comment ?

Debt increase is explained by Starface acquisition. And also some share buy back. The business itself, even after capex, as a huge conversation rate from earning to free cash flow.

Growth is good in Germany, true that in UK growth is probably behind us.

From a fondamental analysis POW there is nothing that explain a SP of 870. PER is around 10.5, and P/FCF around 11. Those are figures that are quite hard to understand.

Perhaps there si better investment options, I am not familiar with all the stock listed in the market.

What I am familiar with is that a compagny with a good earning to free cash flow conversion and with growth should not trade at a PER under 15.

There is no news on the market that explain why the SP has falling this much. And perhaps insiders are not able to buy due to regulation or others things. And one of them has bought some shares in december. ofc insiders buying would be good thing. But it does not explain why the stock has fallen this low.

From a technical analysis POW, we are now in oversold territory I think. So even that does not explain this decrease.

Guidance is good, management is confident, acquistion in Germany will deliver nice growth in the future, and since we are now in January and there was no M&A in S2 2025, Gamma will be in a net cash position.

Now I am not here to say that the market is wrong, hell I am not too old to think that. But I do not understand what the market is seing here. Let see next week what happen.

Well,

With a SP of 879, if guidance is reach, PER would be around 10.5. For a business with a good conversion rate of earning to free cash flow, with a market that will probably keep growthing at least in Germany, and with between 80% and 90% of recurring revenu in UK.

I am really quitte puzzled as why the SP keep declining like that, and in such volume. Even macro environment does not explain for me this much down pressure.

FTSE 250 is up 0.23% this morning, and SP is already down 0.41%. And the day has just begin.

We will probably have a trading update next week, lets see what is really going on. Personnaly I expert nothing due to the high percentage of recurring revenu and last update was in September, so they would have already has a good view of July an August, leaving only 4 months to estimate.

There is no news so there is no reason for the SP decline from operational business. Poor UK macro environment is well know for months. The decline is probably (I am not a magician so I could be wrong) due to technical reason link to market movement.

Not so sure that PE will look at this company, in general I advise against holding a stock hoping for a buy out.

Personnaly I hold because I think the business is strong, growth in Germany could be tremendous, and even if UK is stagnant, cash flow is robus. Only a huge operational decrease in UK (like minus 10% or more) would be a red line for me.

Well perhaps he has read my post below :)

I hope that the next CFO will adress the issue of the sp.

The board really need to be smarter than that here. They seems to have difficulties to send the correct message to investors.

They need to give back some value, buyback or increase of dividend I do not care. But with a business like that (capex light) and strong cash flow, they need to act.

At this level of sp, PER is around 12, and P/FCF is around 13. If they manage to reach their guidance, PER will be around 11.50 and P/FCF around 10.

They need to change the narrative, only by doing that the SP will move.

I think they need to change their CFO.

But not for the past decision, but for the lack of financial communcation and strategy in the last 6 months.

Guidance for EPS is above 94 pences, so PE is more around 10 or 11 for the adjusted EPS.

The board should probably annonce a sharebuyback, or even an acquisition. Cash need to be reinvested in the business because the business is good.

Some purchases by the board would be also a nice move.

A new low this week is possible because the SP is not based on the value of the compagny but on markets move.

The SP is a complete mystery to me. Based on FY 2025 guidance, PER is under 11. The net debt position is temporary, except acquisition or share buy back restart. So that make really no sense to me. Hopefully it will reverse one day, as it is my top hold in my pf.