Member Info for Yumeria

Oh, many reason that you want to sell. The main one is that you want cash, because you need cash to buy something, you need cash to survive, you need cash to reimburse debt.

Also when you need cash fast, which seems the case here, you sell your best asset. Why ? Because someone will buy it. If you sell a bad asset, no one will show at your door.

So the fact that they find buyer means that this is a great asset. No one buy so many share at this price if they do not see an large upside :)

I think that HBR sp show us that even when we talk about fair value, DCF, oil price, etc, the valuation of a compagny is how much a buyer is willing to pay to own it.

Problem here is that we have shareholder that want to sell. Fast. And like every transaction, when someone know that you want to sell, they will offer less. Therefore, sp will not go up before sellers are out.

@Stupmy : Moving below 221 is unlikely. Moving under 241, even if possible, is also unlikely because it would mean EV is below EV before SoH crisis. That should not be possible, as forward oil price is higher than it was as of end of february.

Well,

Today we have an increase for oil price, with some actions taking place in SoH, but SP decrease. That is really puzzling.

If I am not mistaken, share price was 253 pences as of February 27th. So, we sit on a gain of 17 pences currently. Or 6,7%. That is pure b*****t. This SP make no sense, even from a forward curve price POW.

With all the cash made during the past few months, and cash flow estimation for 2026 and 2027, debt will be reduce. And therefore, SP should increase, or market is pricing others risks that I am not aware.

My bet : Share price will remain between 230 and 290 for the rest of the year, before a sharp increase in 2027 if SoH is open again.

HBR could be just "trading" without actively doing it. The decrease in SP today is imho only due to this news fiscal reform. Shell has already done it once.

This new fiscal reform, added to the existing EPL, is simply a suicide.

There is no way that any major E&P Group, with trading activities, will remain in UK in 2028.

Market tend to re rate when actual value go to the shareholder pocket in this type of business.

So, even if I agree with Beile on the substance ( value is also created when BS is repaired), I fear that market will believe that value was really created only when Buyback or Dividend start. We could be a long way from that. Not because JSE is a broken company, but because BS repair and Vietnam Capex will use all free cash flow available for 2026/2027 and 2028 i think. Best be prepare to hold this equity 3 years (personaly I am)

It is my free opinion, not an advice.

Well, even if SoH opens again, prices will remain high for some months. SP could well fall back to 230 pences due to news flow.

But I sure remains optimistic for a sharp rebound in 2027, following debt decrease due to 2026 boosted cash flow.

@kaberlaba : It is the same here in France. Europe is really a disaster for energy politics. When both BP and Total decide to left for the US, I would like to know what kind of excuse French and UK government will serve to tax payers.

You will not see it because market think that HBR is a legacy North Sea oil E&P, with windfall tax and political risk in UK. You will not see it because the market do not believe Q1 cash flow to be real, it think that for the rest of the year HBR will have a negative cash flow.

Narrative is important to a equity valuation. And massives sales of shares from historic shareholder do not help market to reasses it view on the equity.

Does it make sense ? For me no, my hold is 20KGBP, which for me is not a small figure, so I believe the market to be wrong.

But I expect market to realise it in 2027, not before.

No :) Already in decrease. Personnaly, I would not be surprise if the day is red. Market do not want to re evaluate, for the moment, their perception of HBR.

I think part of it is linked to the macro of oil, which is bad since yesterday, and also part of it is due to the debt, and part of it is due to the legacy of the equity.

I say : Appear and not is.

Risk management will often not bypass any blocking due to ratio, even by qualitative analysis.

I am confident than HBR is not distress. I just appear so if you take a look at ratio, and that is the type of control than any risk management in a fund will do.

Hello,

I think that the SP will no go up before debt is reduce or ebitda show a steady growth. Personnaly I think the debt decrease is more likely than a ebitda growth. Without debt decrease, HBR balance sheet appaer distressed with an huge debt. Many funds can not buy this type of compagny with a distressed balance sheet, even if it is a temporary phenonem due to an acquisition.

So, even if the trading updage tomorrow is huge, I think that the SP will not pass the 3$ before 2027. That is also why than it would be more usefull for shareholder to reduce debt than doing some buyback or increase dividend. IMHO

I hope they will not spend a dime in the north sea ! High cost of production, EPL, it is like giving free money to the UK government.

SP remains stable yes, but oil is still above 90$. Wondering how much cash HBR will made during the year, the SP will only go further up if debt decrease.

The rest is all noise. Not adding or selling before HY restult

I read a lot of opinion about this stock, but from my understanding it is quite simple : We are betting on oil and helium. Like every bet, be ready to loose all your money or cash in the reward.

I am too often puzzled by the market reaction recently. Not understanding how market will and why react is bad news for an investor. I also fail to see how the f**** nasdaq is up, crude is down WHILE Ormuz remains close without a solution nearing, and also with physical capabilites destroyed or severly damaged. Gazoil is still high everywhere.

But that is how it is.

My guess : Market has difficulties to think that oil can be above 80$ for some time in 2026. So above 100$ is not even in the cards. I personnaly think that the SP could remain at this level until half year result that will show the huge amount of cash actually made by the company.

Well this type of placements reset sp each time, and also will anchor a bias in investor mind that shares can be acquired at 273. That is not a good news.

I would allocate all cash available to debt pay down. Why ? Because it will greatly solidify balance sheet, allowing more flexibility to invest and give institutionnal more safety to invest.