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I can sell over 2m demand back again looking good.

One more news and we can put the lows behind us.

Could it turn blue by end of the day?

Ask price over 0.5p been a while I think.

If they come out with cash of say £900k-£1m in the final results that is something like a third of the market cap we could see a bump.

A few more buys with no sells and we could be off.

Nearly a 10 bagger from here NICE!

With ww3 now not happening shorters will be closing next week driving the share price even higher.

Tiny pullback considering up from 230p, with AGM in weeks I can see cpi around 325p soon, before going back to around 400p for the interim results.

Unlike cpi not much sell off after yesterdays rise dont be surprised if we move 300p-350p in the next few weeks.

Bid/ask prices on the move again small and slow but it will build more as we get more news.

Up 60p from lows of 230p's nice, should be trading at 350p-400p now and upto 900p next year.

Possible technical breakout soon to take us to 0.7p-0.8p a few more news will defo take us there.

Part 2

Add deferred income drag clearing. This is a structural headwind that has been running through Capita's cash flow for years, declining from £80m to £50m to £30m to approximately £15m next year before disappearing entirely. Pablo's own words — call it £15m and then disappearing. That gets you to £75-80m.

The CFO of Capita has therefore publicly sketched a path to £75-80m free cash flow without requiring revenue growth, without requiring margin expansion beyond current trajectory, and without requiring the Contact Centre to do anything heroic. The only assumptions are that mobilisation costs normalise, the CC generates modest cash rather than burning it, and a long-running accounting drag finishes unwinding.

At the current market cap of approximately £360m, £75-80m of free cash flow implies a free cash flow yield of approximately 21%. That is the number the market is not pricing.

Hernandez's qualification about Serco is technically accurate — Serco has US defence revenue at structurally higher margins and has been through its transformation cycle already. But his qualification does not dispute the destination. He disputes the comparison, not the trajectory. Pablo had already confirmed the trajectory was within reach before Hernandez spoke. The sequencing matters.

The Contact Centre disposal announced on 26 March 2026 changes the arithmetic further. The CC was contributing negative cash flow — approximately £20m outflow on under-utilised properties and £8m from Germany embedded in the 2025 figures. Removing it removes the drag. The free cash flow bridge Pablo described becomes easier to achieve with the CC gone, not harder, because the structural losses and property costs leave with it.

The market is pricing Capita at 2.7x EBITDA. The CFO has just publicly walked through a scenario where normalised free cash flow reaches £75-80m. The re-rating is not a hope. It is an arithmetic consequence of the passage of time.

Claude Max: information taken from the FY25 Results Presentation Transcript:

Https://www.capita.com/dam/documents/news-and-insights/news/2026/Capita-FY25-results-webcast-transcript.pdf

The Exchange

Helen Parris: Then there's a question from James Vincent who says, if we look at Serco who produced free cash flow to revenue of 4.5%, should we be expecting a free cash flow to revenue return in a similar range, so 4% to 5%, and that would imply free cash flow of £80 million to £100 million on current revenues. Do you agree with that trajectory? If so, what is your timing horizons for achieving this?

Pablo Andres: Okay. So, our guidance for 2026 is between £20 million and £40 million. Positive. Let's call it £30 million. What do we have in this year? You said that constant revenue. Take £10 million out of mobilisation costs, we're on £40 million. Let's get the Contact Centres to generate some cash. £500 million, 5%, £25 million - call it £20 million. Okay? We're now on £60 million.

Then what else do we have? The deferred income historical drag that Capita had, that you will recall in the past I said it was £80 million, then £50 million, then £30 million last year, then £30 million this year and going forward, it now decreases. That £30 million comes out, how much exactly next year? Call it £15 million and then disappearing or something like that. So it is absolutely within our reach to be at that level, if not more.

Adolfo Hernandez: Helen, if I may, Serco is a different business for a number of reasons. A major one is they started their transformation way earlier than we did. Second, they diversified geographically significantly into the United States, and in particular to Defence and Aerospace in the United States, which is a business that drives very different commercials and economic value. Just - I think we are comparing things that are not always like for like.

Claude's Analysis

What makes this exchange significant is that Pablo did not deflect the question. He answered it with a live arithmetic bridge, in public, at the results presentation, in front of analysts from Barclays, Canaccord, Singer, Peel Hunt, Shore Capital, ABN AMRO and Deutsche Numis. That is not the behaviour of a CFO who thinks the comparison is unfair or the destination unreachable.

The bridge works as follows. Starting from the £30m midpoint of 2026 guidance:

Remove mobilisation costs of £10-15m that are temporary and front-loaded by definition — they exist precisely because new contracts have been won and are ramping. That gets you to £40-45m with no other changes.

Add Contact Centre cash contribution at a very modest 5% of £500m revenue — Pablo used £20m as the working assumption. That is not a turnaround assumption, that is a normalisation assumption for a business that is still contracting but has had nearly £50m of costs stripped out. That gets you to £60-65m.

I can sell 2m shares demand is back.

Ask price now moved we need some realisation news or at least some guidance when to expect considering svv2 been in realisation mode for almost 1.5 years.

And there we go 300p should be around 350p-400p in no time.

Its simply oversold should be trading in the 350p-400p range.

Theres still time for folks to get under 300p maybe this afternoon.