RE: PS clients declining?6 Jan 2021 12:56
Lamp, Steve F sent me this comfort soon after the Nov update: I am sure he is happy to share:
When considering future FY21 revenue estimates, elements to consider are:
o Our estimated ingoing £34m Annualised Revenue Run-rate
o On the potentially positive side:
§ New business won from our existing and fast-growing pipelines
· We are incredibly excited about the unprecedented early stage sales cycle momentum we’re seeing on the Cloud Telephony side, in terms of high quality inbound lead gen, rate of pipeline build, and level of customer engagement
· Having said that, please note that this is indeed *early stage* sales cycle and: (a) we are yet to generate data or a track record for conversion in this additional Cloud Telephony commercial focus; and (b) our 6-8 months sales cycle estimate is indeed only an estimate at this time rather than a proven data point
§ Ironically on the positive side in a forward-looking sense, please note the 24% price reduction in core LoopUp Platform products (Meetings, Cloud Telephony and Events) versus pre-pandemic levels. The 2 key underlying drivers here are:
· c.40% of business is now under committed term contracts (average of 2-year term as per the half-year report), which should be positively protective in a forward-looking sense
· The largest-driver is a change in call mix, most notably towards less international calling. In a forward-looking sense, it is probably reasonable to expect a degree of positive re-dress in due course if international business returns alongside the ebb of the pandemic
o On the potentially challenging side:
§ Minutes per user remain 56% higher than pre-pandemic levels
· It is probably reasonable to expect that this may decline as the pandemic ebbs. I think general market commentary would suggest that it is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels and that a degree more home and distributed working is here to stay. However, minutes per usage may well stabilise somewhere between current levels and pre-pandemic levels
§ In our non-core, non-PS markets, we are clearly seeing higher churn in the face of market conditions and competition
· It’s probably reasonable to assume that we will continue to see unwanted churn here
· However, please note that this area under threat now only accounts for 14% of our LoopUp Platform revenue run-rate (14% of £28m)
§ We are also seeing churn in our non-core WebEx resale line of business
· Yesterday’s RNS put current run-rate here at £6m, but revenue was £8m here in FY19
· However, please note that this line of business is materially lower gross margin (c.25-30%) and so churn here has less impact to sub-GM profitability