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they dont have to provide quarterly updates until the majority of the shareholder base is in the US - which might now be close.
Given previous years, then we'll get an update in July. Not sure if there will be COVID-induced delays with the external audit or accounting side that push it back to Aug/Sept, but it really doesn't matter either way. Divi is early June, ex dividend is late May. 12c per share from memory, so not too shabby.
Any decent chartists on here? Notwithstanding the significant value still on offer, I wondered what the technicals might suggest over the next few weeks/months? I've seen mention of a cross at around £11.50, but keen to hear some competent assessments.
A nice piece here - very well researched. Current fair value without Peterson - $26
https://traviswiedower.com/2021/04/20/burford-capital-is-by-far-the-most-undervalued-company-i-know-of/
Interesting update by Latam Advisors LLC online (Sebastian Maril's outfit).
"Our report on YPF's expropriation case is out. We believe that the losing side will indeed lose big, and the responsible approach to stop delaying an inevitable income is for either side to initiate talks that will eventually lead to an out-of -court settlement..!
why over-complicate it? All Argentina would have to do if they had half a brain, would be to buy stock now (it's genuinely bargain-basement stuff), then announce a settlement , watch the price sour into the low £20 mark where it be sitting in any case, then sell and pay out. It's really not rocket science. You could interpret it as insider trading for litigants I suppose, but I don't see how you protect against that sort of thing.
This current share price is absurd - with or without Peterson. Hopefully the results next week wake some people up. Time for the marketing and PR team in the company to start earning their money.
I see today that London litigation boutiques PCB Litigation and Byrne and Partners are merging. As we own 30% of PCB Litigation, I guess this counts as a new acquisition in the legal sector. Good to know.
it's gutter press. He fundamentally misunderstands the company, it's riddled with mistakes and he seems to imply that an investment here is nonsensical before Peterson settles, which is an odd statement in itself. Worth turning back the clock to see Seeking Alpha's words with Carson Block in 2019 - they're not exactly impartial.
laconic: all good points, and I agree with your sentiment about gross mis-valuation. We have to assume that at some point the market will see sense (and get their head around a 92% return on invested capital - which is frankly incredible).
I suppose I would like to see:
more frequent investor comms, more capital market days, more fanfare around the business, more press on the opportunity of funding (most of their BD is either the laudable aim of gender balance in the legal sector or broad opinion pieces on this and that), and more work done to explain what their business does and how it works. I understand it entirely - I am amazed how many investors (and even institutions) do not.
I would like more consistency in how data is presented, clarity on challenges the business faces (we all know there are court delays etc) and an ownership of when numbers are down or flat. I would also like the company to spend more time explaining how Peterson has already made them multiple hundreds of millions of dollars and isn't a contributor at present, If it comes in, super, if it doesn't, then it's not going to chop the knees off the company. With the stuff you read, you'd guess that an unfavourable result on 'the big one' is the end of days - which only ignores the hundreds of other investments (at 92% ROIC) and the other lines of income, including extremely profitable funding management fees!
I am heavily invested here and whilst frustrated at the lack of movement and still significantly down from the Muddy Waters short, have total faith that the ship will turn. However, the car needs a bump start, and I think a fresh narrative and some new energy is needed to the investment case and the broader corporate comms.
Well this is all fairly depressing. Total faith that the market is severely mis-valuing this one, but HOW frustrating is the lack of investor comms from Burford? I do wish they'd take a leaf from some other's books and get some proper market work up and running. I fully appreciate Chris Bogart's "we don't care about the share price, the business speaks for itself" mantra, but there comes a point where leaving the SP to rot in the corner just damages the brand, the company, the image and of course the finances. Plus, you now have large swathes of the retail market that refuse to touch Burford ever again!
It's all silly when you look at the numbers and a good excuse to buy more. But HOW LONG must this go on? People will waste their questions on the upcoming investor call asking about case pipeline, whether diligence is still strong etc - all those things are fine. The business is flying. The real question is "when are you going to give retail investors the support and consistently-presented information that they need"?
Sebastian Maril will be speaking at 7:00 pm Argentina time (presumably) on @cnnradioarg AM950 on the @BajoConsumo program, to talk about YPF and the expropriation trial in New York. Could be interesting. As he said a few days ago, despite the recent delay in this latest discovery phase and the resulting trial date reschedule, he does expect the parties to settle. As do I for that matter (there are billions of reasons why that is a better outcome for Argentina).
It's been said before, but if they had any sense, they'd be buying stock now, settle, then pay out of their profit. But what do I know!
"The market will be fully aware that a loss for Burford may well mean that all the amounts taken to profit in previous years would need to be written back." - this is incorrect. The only profit that counts are the cash sales to external third parties, and they will be non-recourse.
"to overcome the possible negatives from a loss in the YPF case." - what negatives? It would of course be transformative to win it, but the case has already generated several hundred million dollars of income and is not contributing to current figures. It's a 'nice to have' - not the lynch-pin to the whole company.
I do wish people would disregard this case - it's a slow burn and could be extremely significant, but in the mean time, there are hundreds of investments and other income steams generating extraordinary profit and ROIC at a (disgustingly) discounted price.
I understand why it's done; there are multiple streams of income and multiple different ways that they are accrued/counted (all great strengths btw). But maybe some standardisation, whilst boring to read, would help some immediate 'compare and contrast'?
But this SP is bizarre. As I said a few weeks ago, Elizabeth O'Connell was buying above these current levels several months ago; we should be knocking on the door of double figures by now (at least).
I do wish that they would standardise some of the way they present their figures though - it changes every time, and to the causal reader is quite confusing, and not very investor friendly. We know that the numbers are stellar and that business is flying, but all this presentation issue does is lead some (Seeking Alpha..) to jump on a particular metric and make incorrect comparisons. It's frustrating.
After record results and outstanding numbers, the share price has gone backwards. I'm totally at a loss here (not for the first time). Anyone smarter than I care to explain what it will take to move this share? It should be in the teens.
thanks jointhedots - al sensible stuff. Yes, I took my time in getting into this one - it was on my research for some months., and I wanted the conflict aftermath to settle a little. Perhaps my timing was just a little off! Hopefully all will be justified in the coming year.
Nothing.
No news, speculation obviously ahead of next Wednesday, I'd imagine some are getting out (shorts?), whilst some are certainly buying in (look at the number of 13F's filed in the past week). Algorithms will be doing their thing. Some will have taken some profit after yesterday's rise, but LTH's will remain.
This is significantly undervalued and should be in the teens. Hold tight, all will be well.