Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I don't know anything about Sharsoc or the individuals that organise it, but I see that Chris Bogart will be presenting at their event in early December in London. I've heard him speak a number of times and would urge anyone interested to attend. Also presenting that evening are Manolette, who are a different type of funder (UK Insolvencies) but would be an interesting compare/contrast during the evening.
None at all, and in all honesty, I think it's not even on the radar of most of the internal team. And it's not as if anything they can do can change or influence the case.
I spoke primarily with Tom and Celina (IIRC) from their asset recovery dept. and what was very clear is that this is a company with a large number of investments, claims and recovery opportunities in progress. They did share that there had been successful seizures this year on some matters and the emphasis on work for Middle Eastern Banks was made a number of times. I left very confident. Strikes me as a strong team who are well connected in the legal sector and know their onions.
Attended the opening of the new Dubai office last night. A very well tended event and queuing out of the door for quite a while. Attendees seemed to be mostly lawyers and law firms, with a few corporate counsels floating around from various places (I noted several banks). Dubai very busy at present as Arbitration Week. Short welcome speech by the head of office Daniel Hall and two further employees recruited already. Spoke with other Burford team who were visiting from the London office. Year seems to be very busy. Appears to be a good and well-required initiative in UAE into a very strong market. Lots of other funders present in Dubai this week also.
I also note that Burford are using the forthcoming Dubai Arbitration Week to launch their new UAE office. I have some colleagues in attendance and might attempt to travel out that week as well. A good place to be growing with respect to both litigation and enforcement work.
New investor presentation posted on the website a week ago (dated Nov 2022). Interesting comments about Oral Arguments for YPF, very strong predicted returns across broader portfolio (USD 2.2bn). Plus the fund management business which is frequently overlooked. About time those older matters (2017 etc) began to settle/resolve, and their salaries look extremely high?
Is there a webinar planned? Or a cap markets day? Wondering what this was generated for?
https://www.burfordcapital.com/media/3326/investor-presentation-november-2022.pdf
an interesting twitter thread here: https://twitter.com/AwesomeGoat_com/status/1582071584726036480
A nice article here telling us what we already know!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546989-burford-capital-downside-appears-limited-ypf-is-a-free-lottery-ticket?utm_campaign=twitter_automated&utm_content=article&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_automated
Yes, they should be having a strong year. Courts are open, cases are in progress, my firm and others in the London legal sector are pretty much flat out and many other funders that I work with appear to have plenty of opportunities coming through the door. I'd expect record deployments and strong cash generation. A positive result on YPF would set the tone fantastically but Preska seems intent on making all sides wait.
It may well be a closed period, although that would have nothing to do with "an imminent YPF decision". Don't forget that there were lots of buys through the summer at much higher prices. From memory this included other senior staff as well, including Aviva Will (I would have to sift through the previous filings). Volume remains low, so I just consider this share price drift whilst we wait for Preska. I can't see another thing in the next 6 months that would move the stock significantly.
Or Argentina could load up on stock, lose the case, see the doubling/trippling(?) of the share price, sell their position and then use the proceeds to pay a large chunk of the award. If I was Argentina, that's a hedge I'd be considering.
I think it's anyone's guess. I'd expect it to drop into Pacer over a weekend to give the markets the opportunity to digest it (if Preska cares). I'd be a little surprised if it wasn't here by year end, but then again it is a significant document and one which will have major ramifications whichever way her decision goes. I faintly recall Chris Bogart saying something along the lines of expecting YPF to resolve "next year" but I may have been dreaming - I have after all listened to hours upon hours of calls, podcasts, chats and other commentary!
I forget what day we are up to now, 106 perhaps? Christmas is 76 days away, which does still feel like a little while. Worth noting too that she has had her hands full with the other Argentine cases of late, which have finally progressed (albeit under seal). Perhaps her workload is easing at last? I don't envy her.
There seems to be some speculation on the blue board (where I dont have an account) about the likelihood of recovering any money from Arg, should the judgment go against them. At this point it's important to remember:
1. Other parties are currently in the process of freezing and seizing Arg assets outside the country as part of their enforcement action on other cases., including real estate in the US. These assets exist.
2. There are multiple ways to uncover Arg currency reserves, investments and trades, all of which can be pursued
3. Arg still has to operate huge aspects of its foreign trade in USD, which again provides ample avenues for pursuit
4. Elliott successfully enforced in 2016 and Abertis Infraestructuras SA accepted an out of court settlement in 2018.
If Bur were to win, they would ultimately get paid. Would Arg cut a cheque overnight - unlikely. But be in no doubt that any large debt wouldn't just be left on the shelf. Plus there remains the possibility that YPF are also on the hook. A company who have had a bumper year and whose SP is up 80% ytd.
From Sebastian Maril:
*begins*
Last week, Judge Preska filed a ruling against Argentina that, because of its sensitivity, was filed Under Seal (US).
- Not available to the public
- Sep. 27 Arg appealed the ruling
- Allegedly related to 5 funds looking to seize assets
- Let's hope the YPF ruling is not filed Under Seal
*ends*
Now it's my understanding that ARG cannot appeal the YPF case without putting a significant portion of the award into court - but please let me know if I'm wrong on that.