Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Usual volatility. Could be one of the shorts trying to get out, could be a little forced selling state-side. Capital Markets Day next week will help visibility, although I do not imagine there is a huge amount of new material to be added to the already convincing investment case here. Sit and wait I think. And stop stressing about YPF.
They will care when aggressive enforcement starts. They will also care when outside investment dries up, because "look what happens when there is a dispute with the state, even when you win" etc.
They should have settled earlier, but they should still settle soon. Another potential outcome is a summary judgment against them next year, which also won't do them any favours.
Argentina have asked the judge for an extra 5 weeks to respond in court to the "large amount of material that Burford has presented against them". Judge Preska has repeatedly shown disdain for continued delays, so let's see how this proposal is recieved.
Argentina squirming?
I find it amusing how different people read sets of results. It's not an accounting loss - you're using a different formula to compare these numbers with old. Moreover, your attention should be grabbed by the record deployments - no mean feat in any half-year, but one with the working conditions the world has faced of late, extraordinary. This company is still being valued at over half what it should be - and that's without factoring in either the fund mgmt returns or YPF.
I'm not sure what to do with this one. Down massively since I bought in, crappy Q1 figures, losing quite a lot of momentum. I love the tech, hate what it's done to my PF. Sit and wait? Or crystallise my loss and move on?
A fresh update from Sebastian:
Argentina, YPF y Burford piden, por 4ta vez, postergar el cronograma de eventos en el juicio por la expropiación de YPF.
- El 1er Discovery debería culminar el viernes.
- Juez Preska ya advirtió que no tolerará más demoras.
- De todos modos, sospecho que hoy aprobará la extensión
Translated from Spanish by
Argentina, YPF and Burford ask, for the 4th time, to postpone the schedule of events in the trial for the expropriation of YPF.
- The 1st Discovery should end on Friday.
- Judge Preska has already warned that he will not tolerate further delays.
- Anyway, I suspect today will approve the extension
Settlement on its way then?
As stated in the most recent analysis by Artem and others, I think it's best to value Burford on the three separate aspects of balance sheet investments, fund fees, and YPF. Some fairly easy maths gets you to a share price of $14-16 on current balance sheet alone. Factor in the fund fees (which to this point have been non existent but are about to become a major contributor). Then of course you have YPF, which could be nothing if the case is lost (despite the significant profit already banked) or it could win the company several billion dollars - the current market cap.
So even if you're really conservative, ignore the fund fees, ignore YPF, then you're still looking at today's SP trading at 30% lower than where it should easily be based on some very conservative maths worked on the lowest figures of return and IRR from previous years.
Superb value.
A nice (although long) podcast just out on YouTube - featuring Artem and his excellent investment thesis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBuH8pyc8Y0
This share price is all a bit silly. I know the markets are having a sulk today because of COVID, but this closed at 781 in the US on Friday evening and we've just banked another $20m from a very public case. What's the issue here and why is it still so depressed?
patience chaps.. we're invested here because we know it's insanely undervalued and has multiple streams of revenue. Why stressed about week to week movements? I would certainly be happier if we were back in double digits - but I strongly feel we will be soon enough. I've been a holder for 7 years and have rarely felt as confident in the investment as now.
well, I guess you have the answer! Down another 3.5% already today. This is why I've never bothered to look into charts - total baloney. What is it about a broken clock being correct twice a day?
I prefer fundamentals, which for Burford, remain fantastic. And we remain significantly undervalued.
Interesting development -
YPF, Maxus looking to hire a mediator in multibillion dollar lawsuit
- YPF and its former U.S. subsidiary are ready to name a mediator before the end of the week, according to court documents.
- Both sides have until May 14 to inform the court who they will retain as a mediator
Is the end in sight?