Member Info for YouKnowItsRight

Powerchina still determined to get this coalmine open

The drawdown ensures no further massive dilution

Elections are in January2024 and GCM has enough money to last until March 2024 to get some sort of deal struck

Bangladesh has no money left, no money for coal imports, and its energy future surely has to include digging the coal in their backyard

Whatever happens Tang, Polo, Dyani, DGi Infratech Pte, etc all stand to lose far more than most of us if GCM fails. But they win and we all win.

And lets not forget the impoverished people crushed by Hasina's corruption who are going to be caught up in the election violence that no doubt is coming.

'Senior government leaders, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, have fueled ongoing violence through public statements encouraging attacks on opposition protesters. On November 3, she told her Awami League party supporters that if they catch anyone committing arson to “throw [them] into the same fire. The hand that sets fire to anything will have to be burnt … tit for tat. If so, they would learn lessons.”'

https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/26/bangladesh-violent-autocratic-crackdown-ahead-elections

Thanks Pappi. Interesting read. More or less same date 28th October for the cycle of violence to begin - last time BNP were in power and lost the election so let's hope history repeats itself an Hasina gets booted out this time. One things is for certain there'll be a lot more killed before this gets played out. And a lot more than died in the original violent Phulbari mob riots that Hasina made out she cared about so much.

Amnesty have picked up on that cycle as well.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/10/bangladesh-repeated-cycle-of-deaths-arrests-and-repression-during-protests-must-end/

More protests today. The people have had enough of Hasina and her corrupt cronies. The pressure is building.

'Ashulia garment union leader Mohammad Ibrahim disputed the police figures, saying there were more than 100,000 protesters.

The worst violence erupted on a highway north of the capital Dhaka to Mymensingh, where at least 4,000 workers clashed with police, blocked the road and set fire to a pick-up truck, officers told AFP.'

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231030-two-dead-as-bangladesh-garment-workers-protest-low-pay

'Hasina recently told parliament that the U.S. wants to remove her from power at any cost.'

The BNP were all for the mine years ago. The US usually achieve regime change when they want it. Would that that help or hinder GCM and the project?

Whoever wins the election still needs the coal for the powerstations and with no ForEx dollats left mining their own coal is the only solution.

https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-election-us-hasina-rally-zia-5d1dd8848aaaddfcdf7fe5886c2922ae

'Hasina recently told parliament that the U.S. wants to remove her from power at any cost.'

"Vote thief, vote thief, Sheikh Hasina vote thief," chanted the crowd at the BNP demonstration in front of the party headquarters.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ndtv.com/world-news/over-1-lakh-people-protest-in-bangladesh-demand-pm-sheikh-hasina-to-step-down-4522552/amp/1

One police officer was killed in Bangladesh on Saturday and over 100 people injured during an opposition party protest demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and calling for a free and fair vote under a caretaker government.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231028-more-than-100-000-protest-to-demand-bangladesh-pm-step-down

*1000 MW Solar

Currently a number of 200MW solar plants coming on line but proposals for mega sites still don't add up to 400000 MW.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/nation/308620/bangladesh%E2%80%99s-largest-solar-park-in-gaibandha-ready

Yes Redeyes a total mess.

But maybe there someone will take the mess on and sort it. Remember Hamid's promise -

'State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid on Thursday said that programs are underway to generate 40,000 megawatts of electricity by 2030 and 60,000 megawatts by 2041'

They are currently at 27000 MW - and will have 2400MW coming from the already delayed Russian Nuclear plant, maybe another 24000 MW on the 2nd unit, and probably 10000 MW from proposed solar farms so where is the rest coming from in just over 6 years? They can't just magic it up. 6000MW at Phulbari would certainly make the numbers fit to 40000 MW.

-The Taka value is crumbling

-Their exports and garment industry are literally in tatters

-Powercuts are blighting the lives of the people

-Coal import credit lines are already maxxed out and defaulted payments being demanded

-Internal loans are not being paid as a result of the economic mess, threatening their banking industry survival.

-CORRUPTION is rife and is literally sucking the life out of the country as the great and good deposit their riches in safe havens abroad crashing the Taka even further

-Coal and LNG prices are volatile and can spike at any moment

They are already committed to coal power stations being in the ongoing mix BUT powered by imported coal. Corruption again rife, inflated invoices, etc. Just like the ridiculed Adani agreement.

HOWEVER in approx 3 months they will have no more ForEx $dollars to buy coal as their ForEx is being depleted at an alarming rate. And no more credit available. More loans from the IMF? The IMF demands will crush them even further and simply be a drop in the ocean and delay the Sri Lanka type of collapse by a few months.

So the coal power stations will shut down yet again BUT they still have to pay massive capacity payments to the coal power stations.

Where will they get the coal to keep the lights on?

Only GCM and Powerchina have a project in place. For Phulbari. And ready to dig and deliver the first coal in 3 years.

There's a reason Powerchina is still backing GCM through thick and thin. There's a reason the lobbyists are being paid in shares. There's a reason why Tang keeps finding willing investors to keep the GCM lights on. They believe a deal can be done.

Tang quite rightly is probably banking on that whoever wins the elections will have no choice but to immediately agree to dig the coal and save the Bangladesh people from even more hardship, whilst also saving their economy with the massive ForEx savings and boost to their economy with reliable energy supply.

The Polo loan facility and a small share issue may just give another 6 months to outlast Bangladesh's woes and test their resistance fully.......

Hasina has enough dollars to last until the elections. What then?

'The central bank sold these dollars mainly for the import of fuel, fertiliser and food.'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.daily-sun.com/amp/post/716761/Import-controls-fail-to-arrest-decline-in-forex-reserves

How can they buy coal on global markets when they run out of ForEx dollars? They can't. But they still have to run the coal power stations. So where will they get the coal?

https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/forex-reserve-7b-short-imf-target-716898?amp

More energy price increases for consumers........

'Due to a price increase in the international market and complications in the opening of LCs, the payment of fuel oil is being delayed, said a Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) report.

According to the report, the amount of arrears is increasing gradually due to the delays. If this situation continues, there is a fear of delay in the import of fuel oil as per the country's demand.

Meanwhile, the power division has also spoken about the need to increase the wholesale and retail prices of electricity to reduce the subsidy in the power sector in the context of the rise in fuel prices.'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/bpc-worried-about-smooth-imports-fuel-oil-amid-hassle-lc-opening-704222%3famp

Power price, subsidy to rise as govt has to pay producers at latest dollar rate.

Electricity consumers look set to bear the burden of additional payment the government plans to make to private producers to help them offset the loss in furnace oil import due to exchange rate volatility.

'Imran Karim also said the investment in Furnace Oil

Based Power Plant is about $4.5 billion. So, if this sector collapses, the banking sector will also collapse. Two or three banks of the country will collapse instantly.'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/power-price-subsidy-rise-govt-has-pay-producers-latest-dollar-rate-707842%3famp

Good find Pappi. It's inevitable that at some point they will have to use their own coal. This report throws more light on their self-inflicted financial mess. Apparently they are paying $400 tonne to Australia. Current policy is totally unsustainable and they will have to dig their own coal just to survive at some point. But can GCM survive until then?

https://businesspostbd.com/economy/bangladesh-economy-hit-hard-by-ukraine-war

'In his response, State Minister for Energy, Power & Mineral resources has said, want to make response giving some information on this. There are 5 discovered coal fields in Bangladesh: Barapukuria, Phulbari, Dighipara, Khalaspir and Jamalganj. We can extract coal from Phulbari by open pit mining method. About 90% coal can be extracted removing overburden materials. Currently we are mining coal from Barapukuria at a daily rate of 1500-2000 tonnes through underground method. Many people ask me about coal mining, so I want to give this information. Honorable Speaker, I want to let all honorable MPs know through you that Dighipara is close to Barapukuria mine. We have already completed the feasibility study and found that, underground mining is feasible there. The coal to be mined from 300 meters below the surface and only 15-20% can be extracted. What I have said, open pit mining is only feasible in Phulbari.'

Just typical of his type, sat in his University ivory tower in Dhaka where he knows nothing of the hardships of the people around Phulbari. A typical poltical agitator always pushing some cause for his own benefit and relevance. Pictures of the protests over the last few years show a tiny crowd of barely 20-30 people, probably mostly bussed in for the day.

Here is the words of the local MP, somebody who is actually involved in the area and could be said to have his finger on the pulse. A local MP who is desperate for the investments, jobs and infrastructure that the project will bring. In a question to Enegy Minister Nasrul Hamid -

'Raising the question Mr. Sibli Sadiq MP said, While we are struggling to run many of our power plants due to fuel crisis, the Dighipara coal field that has been discovered in my constituency could have been a blessing for the country. I do not know, why there is no progress in developing this coal field despite having completion of feasibility study. We have seen comments from many countries on climate change issue and proposing ban on burning fossil fuel, but they have been burning coal for long, way back 200 years, and enjoying a higher living standard. But why we are unable to utilize this resource? My submission to honorable minister, please let us know why the development activities of this mine is not started?'

Why indeed............

'The Project will deliver the Government and People of Bangladesh a step-jump in their economy which is dealing with the very considerable financial burden of rampant energy costs.'

So true. It beggars belief that Bangladesh is crippling its own economy and Taka value by spending so much of its money on importing coal, and the people are suffering so much with still ongoing crippling power cuts, when it has massive coal deposits on its own land. They have the coal power stations so the demand for coal is there no matter what At some point soon they will run out of dollars and no longer be able to import coal.

Redeyes - yes just like a desperate poker player waiting and waiting for the pair of aces whilst all his pot gets blinded away and ends up with nothing........

The previous big fundraise was at 5.5p but was seemingly taken by Dyani and Polo who both increased their holdings. And the previous holders Kilkenny returned. That's a big loss currently, and is a melon scratcher considering they were all on the inside.

The last fundraise was at 2.5p and again they are also significantly in the red. We don't know who took them shares. But you're right the next fund raise is going to be in the 1 pences and that again will see significant dilution.

Apart from raising funds to pay his enormous salary for a company that doesn't even trade what else does Tang do? Oh and apart from giving most of the company away to the mysterious Dyani for so called 'significant milestones'. What milestones have actually been achieved? We look no further forward than when they joined the party.

Would the company be better off without Tang and can he be removed? Are his price demands for the coal too high to Bangladesh, would his removal make a deal with Hasina any easier?

Germany begins dismantling wind farm for coal - dirty brown lignite coal

German energy giant RWE has begun dismantling a wind farm to make way for a further expansion of an open-pit lignite coal mine in the western region of North Rhine Westphalia.

https://euobserver.com/green-economy/157364

[LINK REMOVED]