Member Info for You_Having_a_Laugh

Deflationary but = deflationary bust.

Everyone talks inflation and it is there but not even in all areas. Similarly, few talk deflation, but it is there and not even in all areas. GROW and others like it are symptoms of a deflationary but where the value of money in that segment rises and the price of GROW and others falls.

There is every chance it will become so unhinged you will not believe it. Posted that before and still believe it. Not bottomed yet in my opinion. Still some blood to squeeze out of it. After there will be a recovery but don't imagine a recovery like in the past as there will be so many bargains to choose from.

All the froth will be blown away. Think 2001 and how long that took to recover from.

Exxon buying Pioneer indicates a new future for shale and there is more new money and consolidation to come and more directional drilling needs and more technology. Chevron will be left in the dust and won't like that.

I wish you well but until the Bond market turns I don't see this going anywhere very useful. Forget discount to NAV, it makes no difference with the current money flows. If stress increases this can fall even further. It's already lower than many here would have expected, it can go lower still. It's no joke, not funny, but very possible.

Still hanging around this? Didn't they tell everyone there would be little shareholder return as they focus on debt or was I dreaming?

SoftBank has learnt some lessons the hard way, I can't see them wanting to gamble on Graphcore.

Just watch what happens when rates roll-over after such increases, reduced rates will not be "tweaks". The authorities are always behind the curve and something will have broken by the time they act, rates will fall to compensate but too late. Study what happens to markets on the first rate cut after such a run-up. Not pretty, bubble will have burst.

My guesstimate - they only cut after a 20-30% SPDR fall and the first cut will add another 10% to the downside. 30%-40% down. When? I don't know but could have just started.

Read my posts - they are not spam.

None of us know everything, some know they don't know, some don't care to know, others know more than others think they know.

A lost decade - very possible - made up of periods of major upside volatility only to be slammed back down again. History is important and we have been through the 60's and now back in the 70's. Not exactly the same but very similar and it will last another 6-9 years in my opinion. Up and down, bouts of inflation, union unrest. Towards the end you will be shocked by the after inflation valuations of the likes of GROW, if it doesn't go private first.

What we are going through now is a pre-event tremor. As soon as rates are cut for the first time expect a major downdraught that takes everything with it. Buy then if you have the cash.

Good luck here, it's more a trade when it turns than an investment. It's too sensitive to external macro factors management cannot control or allow for. Little they can do except be blown around and shareholders with them.

Don't follow anyone, think for yourself but study history

Yes, junk bond etf.

look at levels at which major equity sell offs occur afterwards, historically, a good track record.

hint, danger levels currently, doesn't matter what people post here.

been right on grow so far, look at old posts, and its not over yet imho.

Inflation - not killed yet. Watch prices at the pump.

Prices at the pump + JNK performance.

A lot of "common-sense" in both together.

It's related to the JNK performance and currently horrendous and may get worse. Watch JNK.

Looks like I was right.

I don't know how to do a search on posts but a while back I did post people will be surprised how low this is likely to go and I don't think it is over yet. All related to the whole credit market and will be interesting to see what happens when Japan finally start to tighten too. Yes, Japan and miles away but impacts money flows and that has been a driver.

Will make little difference about nav and discount currently.

Market moves first and everything is signalling a severe recession imho with no avoiding it.

US too. Money better put to use as dry powder.

With the price response to latest RNS it would be better if they didn't bother or just take it private and give everyone an exit.

Might be waiting for a deal, might be giving more time for others to buy in, might look to make a splash over the weekend as news is digested, might be completely out of their depth ???

History........

Typically stocks rise into rising rates for the first period.

Stocks fall on the first rate cut.

Rate cuts signal a major downturn has hit that needs looser money.

Look at the history of rate regime changes vs market valuations.

Have you been drinking?