Member Info for Yorek

I’ve bought a few more too.

You either believe or you don’t.

Coordinated posting across bulletin boards suggests shorts on the rampage rather than known news in my opinion.

Good luck all those who continue to hold.

July washout drags retail sales down 1.2 per cent as supermarkets and high street hit

https://www.cityam.com/july-washout-drags-retail-sales-down-1-2-per-cent-as-supermarkets-and-high-street-hit/

Remember this happened on Monday too.

The troll(s) started on the ‘other’ BB about the same time as here today. So someone is desperate.

Unfortunately the turbulence may continue (or not) through next week, who knows.

I’m more interested in who was keen to buy this morning, pushing the price up….and when the next LinkedIn post or other news will land.

Holding tight still and continuing to be patient.

Down from 7.9%

Hoping for a good day

They’ve still got 0.69% to go, so expect some further turbulence and BS from their de-ramping crew.

Remember the ‘good stuff’ that we keep being reminded of on here.

I’m holding tight for whatever the future holds.

Shorts updated to yesterday’s date:

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BMTV7393/

Tesco and THG are well aligned on sustainability, so if they are developing their business, THG will undoubtedly help Tesco achieve their goals…..especially as some suppliers are only just formulating a sustainability strategy:

Tesco net zero targets (10th August news):

https://tescoplc.com/tesco-s-ambitious-net-zero-targets-validated-by-science-based-targets-initiative/

Alignment on sustainability on page 60 of the report:

https://fcdn.ingenuitylite.com/thg-com/documents/6451e02a1ad37c7ebf4e6a6a/thg-ar22-final-digital.pdf#page=30

THG Plc Stock Price Prediction: Are Buyers Still In Control?

Antonio K Smith by Antonio K Smith August 14, 2023

https://themarketperiodical.com/2023/08/14/thg-plc-stock-price-prediction-are-buyers-still-in-control/

Unilever backing a gummy producer in India shows the potential of this market for THG:

https://www.just-food.com/news/unilever-backs-indian-gummies-maker-whats-up-wellness/

There seems a fair bit of alignment with Unilever Ventures portfolio and THG Health & Beauty….

ASDA have some catching up to do. They were 9th out of 11 retailers in the ATNI UK Retail index 2022: https://accesstonutrition.org/the-indexes/uk-retailer-index-2022/

If you go half way down the page, via the link above, you’ll find the long list of activist investors signed up to this initiative. It says:

“Investors in Nutrition and Health.

Below you can see the updated list of the investor signatories that have signed up to ATNI's Investor Expectations on Diets, Nutrition and Health. USD 19.9 trillion AUM (calculated as of December 2022).”

I feel like the value of Nutrition to food businesses, will largely depend on whether THG Nutrition has a strong portfolio of ‘healthy’ products (non-HFSS), that when added to a companies ‘unhealthy’ product portfolio, could massively improve it. Or, whether the food business is within the competitive set and is therefore under threat from THG listings and could lose business.

If a food business has the capability to manufacture THG nutrition products, then it wouldn’t be too difficult to do it. However, trying to displace the market leader, is a move that would need very deep pockets.

I think the real potential and value would be realised once we get listings in the main retailers for everyday food products, not just gym related nutrition products….because at that stage, we’d be on the radar of multiple food manufacturers/brands, concerned about their competitive advantage, or lack of it.

I have said before that the industry has been focussing on reducing negative nutrients like calories, saturated fat etc., and trying to retrofit changes to existing product formulations, rather than focusing on re-imagining what a ‘healthy’ product could look like. The range in Iceland is the result of reimagining what healthy pizza and ice cream can look like, which i feel would be attractive to retailers, but only if the products deliver on flavour and price point, which they do.

So, my personal view is that if THG progress with co-branding licensing deals to launch more THG branded products, then they have a good chance of disrupting the food environment, which would get attention. But, if they agree to manufacture own label products for the retailers, then this will hand the formulations to the retailer and a good part of their competitive advantage and margin, will be eroded. Branded is the only way for me, but that’s just my opinion.

When I read this yesterday about WPP, it reinforced my belief that the CityAM buy was a genius move, because it can provide advertising to Ingenuity clients, as part of their end-to-end service:

“Like many of its rivals, the advertising group has suffered as companies scale back their advertising budgets in the face of economic uncertainty.”

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12374305/amp/Ad-meltdown-WPP-clients-cut-spending.html

“CityAM transforming under THG.

After surprising many in the Square Mile with its takeover of London freesheet CityAM last month, Matt Moulding's THG – formerly The Hut Group – is already moving to bring its founder's brand of sensitivity to the latest addition.

Whispers hears that a display of critical comments in the paper's offices, affectionately known as the 'Wall of Flame', has been removed as part of the transition process.

Scrubbing evidence of criticism is unsurprising given the new boss's well-known hostility to scrutiny of his businesses and management style.

One wonders whether a video posted on LinkedIn by Moulding in April, which seemed to imply journalists were 'lower than pond scum', made the cut.”

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12376335/CITY-WHISPERS-Alleras-career-ambitions-hold-BT.html

Ok. I’ve got a meeting with Tesco next week, so I’ll try and find out when their range review dates are, so we know when to look for listings.

MyProtein is already in Tesco: https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/search?query=myprotein

If we assume that this is a new vacancy and not a replacement, then we should also assume that growth may be imminent…..but if that’s the case, we should also be asking who’s managed the account to date….

From a retail perspective, Tescos tend to launch their chilled autumn range review in circa October; ambient may be sooner and I’m not sure about frozen. Brands are likely to have been presenting for that review up to about May/June, so a decision to grow their retail account management team may well have come after receiving listing confirmations…..or, it may be a speculative hire, with a view to supplying more in Spring 2024. We won’t have visibility yet.

If however they have been working on an exclusive range for Tesco, in my experience this would normally be done way in advance, so the retailer has a say on profiles etc. If this were the case, I would be concerned that they are only recruiting an account manager now, but with head count culls, recruiting may be on a need to hire basis.

Personally I am in no doubt that Terry Leahy could oil the wheels within Tesco and Morrisons if appropriate, as it’s a very small industry really, in terms of people and relationships.

This is all speculation on my part…

Could be a route into One Stop (Tesco again) with 1000 convenience stores too: https://www.onestop.co.uk/about-us/

“Tesco Group” accounts….

Tesco group includes Booker: https://www.booker.co.uk

Good way to get brand exposure and improve accessibility to smaller retailers, gyms etc

Thanks to those who’ve mentioned CVC. Even if it’s irrelevant, I had not made any connections and find it interesting.

Dominic Murphy does not seem to have a footprint on LinkedIn, so if that’s the case, he wouldn’t respond to Matts posts.

It may have been just coincidence with last years AGM timing, but his stepping down from THG coincided with the bid approaches last summer and Matt saying that at the time, he’d consider £3b to take private, with him remaining in control. I also find it odd that even though he’s a managing partner, he hasn’t removed THG from his online CVC profile:

“Dominic Murphy, Managing Partner, joined CVC in 2019. Dominic co-leads CVC's private equity activities in the UK and is based in London.

Formerly a partner at Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co, he was also a member of the firm's European investment and portfolio management committees.

Dominic played an influential part in KKR's investments in Mehiläinen, Alliance Boots, Ambea, The Hut Group, LGC, SBS Broadcasting and Webhelp and currently serves on the board of directors of Walgreens Boots Alliance and The Hut Group.”

Just observations, probably nothing in it.

Have a nice holiday HH.

Ian McDonalds comment on LinkedIn, on the post from Matt:

“Interesting post Matt. I’d agree that the BoE and others seem to setting policy on data which is backward looking rather than where we’ll be when the rate rises actually take effect.

More importantly though, well done you and Jodie on the great work of The Moulding Foundation. I’m sure it’s a great feeling to be able to “give back” and support so many valuable projects which can positively impact people’s lives. A great example of capitalism adding to society on many levels.”

“ Another day, another interest rate rise….

We could all read the media and feel doomed to a life of misery.

But basic economics tell us that when the world prints money, inflation follows. When Covid and lockdowns hit, countries faced economic and social meltdown and were forced to print money to fill the huge financial chasm created. Central banks and governments couldn’t stand by and watch people starve, or for riots and looting to start.

And so money was printed and handed out to those affected. Now we’ve got the inevitable inflation, and the printed money must be taken back out of the system again. Otherwise, inflation spirals, currencies risk collapsing, and we’re back to riots and looting.

Sadly, the only tool to reduce inflation is interest rates. It’s painful, horrible and difficult for almost everyone. It's not just mortgages and food prices affected from interest rates; businesses are deeply affected too. Investments are scaled back, and cost savings become every company’s focus.

But there’s genuine good news around the corner. The key drivers of inflation have long gone, there’s just a lag in consumers benefiting. All commodities have plummeted in the past 12 months, to levels not seen for years. It just takes time for it to appear in newly manufactured products on shelves.

THG is a huge global buyer of whey protein for our Myprotein family of brands. This commodity is now trading at its lowest level for 7 years! In the US, milk is being poured away by farmers as supply far exceeds demand. And so cheaper prices are coming everywhere, and soon….  

In difficult times like these, the impact on charities is often overlooked. Donations are usually the first thing that both consumers and businesses cut back. The Moulding Foundation is acutely aware of this and has stood by the pledge to keep making donations.

Last week the Foundation donated £250k to UA92, a new Manchester based university set up by Gary Neville and the “Class of 92”. It aims to give opportunities to people that can’t thrive in the standard university model, with degrees awarded from Lancaster University. I love disruptors like this, standing up for young people that don’t fit in a “box”.

Yet these are often the very people that, when given the opportunity, go on to achieve truly great things. This initial £250k donation provides 25 underprivileged students with £10k each to help fund them through their degrees.

THG is playing a role too. We’ve partnered with UA92 on the launch of their Level 4 DevOps apprenticeship, hiring 4 of their apprentices into THG Ingenuity.

Since starting the Foundation with a £100m personal donation in 2021, we’ve now donated £9.3m across Healthcare, Housing and Education within 2 years. We’re just getting started too.

(Pics are from a different project a few weeks ago. Gary was abusing me regarding THG’s share price gyrations. I don’t laugh enough. More to follow here 😉)

#cha