Member Info for Yorek

Looks like he’s been rumbled (and has read about it on here). He’s posted his source:

“A new Al analysis platform my consultancy is trialling.”

He’s just posted a second snippet on X, from the document he has yet to identify. It says:

“If the Ingenuity division is demerged with a portion of THG's existing debt transferred to it, the fair value of the remaining company's share price would likely be higher.

Assuming that Ingenuity assumes £200 million of the existing £300 million net debt in the demerger, the net debt for the remaining business (Beauty and Nutrition) would reduce to £100 million. This reduction in financial leverage enhances the equity value, as more of the company's operating cash flows would be available to shareholders.

With the improved balance sheet, the estimated fair share price of the remaining business could rise to approximately £2.75, reflecting the increased financial stability and the market's likely application of a higher valuation multiple due to reduced risk. This scenario underscores the positive impact of debt restructuring on shareholder value in the context of a demerger.”

“Applied Nutrition said it intends to float on London Stock Exchange's main market in October.

The sports-nutrition, health and wellness brand--which was founded 10 years ago--said on Monday that after admission, it will be targeting a free float of at least 25% of issued share capital, adding that it expects to be eligible for inclusion in the FTSE 100 index.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/applied-nutrition-expects-london-stock-exchange-listing-this-month-f454f7c6

A new follow up tweet this morning:

“To add some context the body of this report is based on a worst case scenario where group absorbs all debt.”

City Spy has posted a piece that suggests a £2.25 post demerger valuation:

https://x.com/thecityspy/status/1842960356131614848?s=46&t=zAJtR8vCKKZqNltuzbhcmw

Think you need to get to Specsavers 😉

Baf3 are you serious? Nothing I have posted was from Dr Google…I was actually referring to your post 🤣

The salt solution that I’m referring to is already in food products. Again, you don’t have to believe me. I’m a good faith poster, but you can’t see it, so I wish you well with your views/investment.

DYOR as they say.

Not all salts are equal.

I can assure you that the sodium content of all sea salts and table salt, are not identical. Neither is the level of flavour delivery, or the impact the different types of salt have on the other ingredients within a food manufacturing formulation. Dr Google won’t tell you the details or identify the best, lower sodium solutions.

Obviously, you don’t need to believe me..that’s your prerogative.

Interesting. Each to their own I guess. Glad you’re happy. I found it too flighty to use.

I use a much cheaper mineral rich sea salt that naturally contains less sodium to achieve similar.

“What are those weird ingredients in our favorite US packaged foods?

From maltodextrin to guar gum, these additives are found in 73% of the US food supply – and are linked to health impacts”

https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/20/maltodextrin-guar-gum-packaged-food-ingredients

Thanks baf3. Interesting opinions.

Just out of interest, have you actually tried Microsalt? I mean physically opened a tub of it and tried to use it in the domestic sense?

This is all just my personal opinion (as is my last post), but I agree with LLOL.

T&L no longer make salt microspheres, but there are others in the manufacturing market, like microfine salt flour. I may be wrong, but believe Cargill USA have a few versions. I believe Microsalt is the smallest crystal size, but again I may be wrong.

There are many sodium reduction solutions in the market, including ones that don’t involve potassium. I feel like if Microsalt collaborated with a company that has a better salt product, with a better salt flavour profile than table salt, then they could genuinely have something that would deliver quality flavour and functionality.

OSG - I have no position here, but have watched since IPO. In my opinion only, there are a few potential challenges that may restrict the uptake of Microsalt, that in fairness to them, may not all have been on the horizon during product development:

1. It has limited uses - the structure is excellent for snack adhesion/distribution, but not for applications where it melts

2. It’s a very expensive version of table salt and table salt does not deliver the best salt flavour profile

3. Depending on what the new government does, there may be a salt tax in the future. They have shown their support of The National Food Strategy, which recommends a £6/kg tax on salt into manufacturers, which would make any salt very very expensive. Companies may look to flavour modulation as an alternative.

4. The addition of maltodextrin, makes this a UPF ingredient, which many food companies are looking to remove.

On a positive note, the current voluntary salt reduction targets expire at the end of 2024, so if new, tighter ones are issued next year, food manufacturers will be encouraged to look for more solutions.

My personal view is that the crystal size is ingenious, although not entirely unique, but the above points mean I’m staying on the side lines, for now at least.

“Looking ahead, the company reckons there’s plenty of growth to come. According to Euromonitor, the global sports nutrition, health and wellness market is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 8.1% between 2023 and 2028 so this market growth should provide tailwinds for the company.

We are only scratching the surface of our growth opportunity, and this IPO positions us ideally for the next step of our development.

Applied Nutrition CEO Thomas Ryder”

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-applied-nutrition-shares-ipo-092500705.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAE5wdP_6YLIryuvqRY7_3qkJ8fhv783s_x6p82UXstui6uit7iBsweJt_4cYY8ha7S-g5cTztlm7e_9ZMAlSQ2Zaz9YIPRBtXbMnURJso2j_pdUkplttsN5haMCPQslfNYAGdJ4ihuaXjPOdAu_Fr77s3GsNvRL6vzNS3vu6niff

Yes, the one & only Mr Kleinman brought it to our attention at the beginning of the year:

https://news.sky.com/story/jd-sports-backed-applied-nutrition-plots-1631bn-london-float-13062717

Interesting article that “lays down challenge to banks”:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/topstories/apollo-plans-to-double-assets-by-2029-as-it-lays-down-challenge-to-banks/ar-AA1rwF1b?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=5dcaf582d7eb43428529a4e6239d6be0&ei=35

Thanks OSG

From Kelso:

“THG Plc ("THG")

THG, remains our second largest investment where we own 5.0 million shares at an average cost price of 61p. The shares were at 62.2p at 30 June 2024 and 57.1p on 27 September 2024. We are extremely pleased that alongside their recent Interim Results in September, the Board announced that it is their intention to demerge the Ingenuity division and move the remaining business to the Premium Index of the London Stock Exchange. Whilst it is disappointing that the share price has not reacted positively to this news, we continue to believe that both actions will result in material gains to the value of THG when these actions are completed over the coming months. Importantly, the demerger will allow investors to allocate their investment to align with their risk appetite. It will result in Ingenuity, an exciting high growth, high potential value business with significant losses to be considered separately to the two world class, highly profitable e-commerce businesses, namely THG Beauty and MyProtein, with the latter remaining on the UK market Premium List. We support this move and do not believe that the current market capitalisation remotely reflects the valuation of these two businesses.”

There’s quite an emphasis on loss-making Ingenuity. Can someone with more financial acumen than me, please explain how the future requirements of Ingenuity (circa £150m from memory) will sit alongside the potential “losses” (to be carried forward?), to a prospective purchaser of Ingenuity? Or is it not that simple?

Thanks OAC

I’m hoping that the wisdom of doing all this now, is related to potential investment partners for ingenuity (eg H&B and M&S are currently looking to invest in automated warehouses) and the valuation of Applied Nutrition….plus the listing piece. Fingers crossed the details of the Applied Nutrition float give us some kind of lift.

Interesting that M&S are looking to their online future and that no deal is agreed yet for extra warehousing.

Much as I like M&S, their online service lets them down…much like the H&B service did pre-ingenuity.

THG were not interested in the high cost of returns with clothing etc., but that view may have changed, if retail partners, who also want to expand internationally, are interested in a stake in spin-off ingenuity…….

“M&S explores deal for big new warehouse in Midlands”

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1727608315261725600/press-ms-explores-deal-for-big-new-warehouse-in-midlands-%E2%80%94-telegraph.aspx