Member Info for Yanar

You might be right. It is Wednesday! Got my dates slightly mixed up there - apologies. So lets see what tomorrow brings.

I think that the RNS (4th qtr trading update) due out on Friday is going to be a good one, and the Market Makers have probably got a bit of advanced notice of what's in it. Or it could be just coincidence!!!! 30p anybody?

Slight drop on profit taking. Should start the climb again soon. Still not sure if we have a takeover, or the result due out next Friday are driving the SP up? Ideas?

Could this be the start of a takeover bid?

All signs are looking good for next weeks RNS. Looks like it may be a good one folks. Just remember, although sales may be down, the drop in cocoa and sugar prices will have a dramatic positive affect on the bottom line. We may even see a token dividend at year end.

RNS due out next week (13 July). Looks like we maybe seeing upward signs in the run-up to next weeks news.

For information, during the crash of 08/09, HFDs hit a low of 204p on £91M profit (vs £98M seen today) if FY13 is looking dissapointing so far, then perhaps the SP may revisit the £2 mark again.

For information, year to dates sales are £191.3M (last trading update) and not £138M as you incorrectly stated in your post today at 15:34.

I think perhaps you need to look at the fundamentals of this business before you make unfounded comments. Sales are down 2.7% against 2011 (due to the loss of sales associated with poor performing store closures). This means sales are marginally lower than last year, but still ahead of 2010, 2009, 2008 and 2007 sales. A quick comparison: 2012 sales are expected to be £214M vs £186M sales (£8.85M profit) in 2007, so as you can see, even with the small drop this year, the figures are still well ahead of previous years! The significant drop in profit (not sales!) is associated with business transformation, so is short term! As you will understand if you interrogate the balance sheet for the business, a drop in sales of £4M does not mean a drop in profit of £4M! It doesn't work like that. The transformation programme has a lot of positives that are going to significantly impact the business positively such as: closure of unprofitable business, outsourcing distribution, efficiencies in manufacture and improvement in store products. An additional and significant bonus is a 40% drop in cocoa price (could improve bottom line by £4M) a 20% drop in sugar prices (could improve bottom line by £2M) and a more favourable £/$ exchange rate, which means import of sugar and cocoa are cheaper since they are bought in $, which is positively compounded on top the drop in futures. This will feed in in this years and the next years figures. In sum: Mr under hill "YTD sales..... Long way behind previous years" - incorrect - slightly behind last year, but ahead of 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007...... Agema "poor sales cancelling out coca price fall" incorrect - sales are marginally down on last year. Sales still better than 2010, 2009, 2008..... Profit is down because of restructure (see above) which is short term and with impact profit. QueenElvis? Wally...Don't know precious little about their products!!!!. Well I can tell you that the dark chocolate with mint chocolate bar I'm eating at the moment with mexico 66% cocoa is fantastic! Would highly recommend it!

Cocoa prices have dropped even further over the past month and the futures are pointing towards a 5 year low of $2,000 per metric tonne, from a high last year of $3,500 per metric tonne! That a 40% drop in raw materials costs. I've been trying to figure out what this means and here are my calcs: from the company balance sheet, raw materials comes in at about £45M ish. Cocoa represents about 25% of raw materials = £11.25M for 2010/2011. If an improvement of 40% is realised, then that means gross profits will improve by £4.5m over 2011/2012. This represents x5 of last years gross profit alone, or 60% of gross profit in 2010, without doing anything different to the business! This also doesn't even factor in the drop in sugar prices, closure of loss making stores, restructure of the distribution business, or transformation of the long term business. If all this plays out to plan, we should be back above 50p and well into dividend territory! Keep a close eye on interims on 13 July and end of year results on 7 sept 12.

Next trading update 13 July. Looks like the trading year for Thorntons may be good after all.

'Thorntons remains work in progress in terms of restoring profitability and positive forecast momentum,' said David Jeary of asset manager Investec. 'This said, we take encouragement from what was a good seasonal performance over the key Easter period within these third quarter figures. 'In addition, the recent appointment of a new commercial sales director should underpin future returns from Commercial.' Jeary kept Investec's hold recommendation, saying he was 'awaiting further evidence of sustained recovery'. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2138859/Thorntons-chocolate-eggs-treat-Easter.html#ixzz1u4LN3Xgk http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2138859/Thorntons-chocolate-eggs-treat-Easter.html

I don't usually subscribe to the conspiracy stuff - people sending codes by buying 1 or 2 shares. It does look like our institutional investor is back buying his 100,000 blocks of shares though. There was a delayed trade today for 100,000 that stick out like a sore thumb. Markets were pretty depressed across all share today, so atI least we know where the level is here at the moment.

Although sales might be flat estimated 2011/12 at £214M (they are no worse than sales over 2010 = £214M, 2009 =£214M, 2008 = £208M and 2007 = £186M where the SP was around £1. This latest short term blip is simply down to reorganisation costs (sales have hardly been affected over the past 5 years by the recession!) These onerous costs will fall out this year and next, returning profitability and dividend. As an extra bonus, outsourcing, improving efficiency and cheaper commoddities (sugar and cocoa) will feed in to. The fundamentals win hands down here!

Ask price is climbing now at 25.5p after the small sell off this morning.

Next key trading update is 13 July. With end of year result 7 Sept. Projecting todays update, I think we will see: Sales 2011/12: £214m (£218M 2010/11) and profit of £1.7m (£0.85M 2010/11) I also think they will restore a notional dividend of 0.25p

I think you are confusing sales with profit. This RNS just proves that the business has now stabilised; the small drop in sales will be easily offset, if not surpassed by the drop in cocoa and sugar prices. Strong buy I think!

Just did a dummy buy on Lloyds sharedealing. The number of shares you can purchase has been restricted to 100,000. Looks like they are in demand.

Thorntons PLCs, third quarter trading update for the 16 weeks up to and including 30 April has been posted on the 3rd May for as long as I can remember.... Last 3 years at least. If you want to see last years press the THT RNS ICON in the icon box above and scroll down to 3rd May. It is never advertised, but always turns up like clock work. So hold onto your hat and wait till Thursday.... Always released at 7am too. GLA.

Cocoa prices are set to fall further over second half of the year. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cocoa-beans&months=12 Another big commodity used by Thorntons is also set to dramatically fall over the second half of the year. Raw sugar futures looked set to fall to 22.5 cents a pound in New York on the three-month horizon, and average 21 cents a pound over the whole of 2012, down more than 20% year on year. http://www.agrimoney.com/news/abn-warms-to-many-commodities-but-cool-on-ags--4084.html Both Cocoa and now sugar price falls are going to really positively affect the bottom line. Just in time for Xmas 12.