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'Thorntons remains work in progress in terms of restoring profitability and positive forecast momentum,' said David Jeary of asset manager Investec. 'This said, we take encouragement from what was a good seasonal performance over the key Easter period within these third quarter figures. 'In addition, the recent appointment of a new commercial sales director should underpin future returns from Commercial.' Jeary kept Investec's hold recommendation, saying he was 'awaiting further evidence of sustained recovery'. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2138859/Thorntons-chocolate-eggs-treat-Easter.html#ixzz1u4LN3Xgk http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2138859/Thorntons-chocolate-eggs-treat-Easter.html
I don't usually subscribe to the conspiracy stuff - people sending codes by buying 1 or 2 shares. It does look like our institutional investor is back buying his 100,000 blocks of shares though. There was a delayed trade today for 100,000 that stick out like a sore thumb. Markets were pretty depressed across all share today, so atI least we know where the level is here at the moment.
Although sales might be flat estimated 2011/12 at £214M (they are no worse than sales over 2010 = £214M, 2009 =£214M, 2008 = £208M and 2007 = £186M where the SP was around £1. This latest short term blip is simply down to reorganisation costs (sales have hardly been affected over the past 5 years by the recession!) These onerous costs will fall out this year and next, returning profitability and dividend. As an extra bonus, outsourcing, improving efficiency and cheaper commoddities (sugar and cocoa) will feed in to. The fundamentals win hands down here!
Ask price is climbing now at 25.5p after the small sell off this morning.
Next key trading update is 13 July. With end of year result 7 Sept. Projecting todays update, I think we will see: Sales 2011/12: £214m (£218M 2010/11) and profit of £1.7m (£0.85M 2010/11) I also think they will restore a notional dividend of 0.25p
I think you are confusing sales with profit. This RNS just proves that the business has now stabilised; the small drop in sales will be easily offset, if not surpassed by the drop in cocoa and sugar prices. Strong buy I think!
Just did a dummy buy on Lloyds sharedealing. The number of shares you can purchase has been restricted to 100,000. Looks like they are in demand.
Thorntons PLCs, third quarter trading update for the 16 weeks up to and including 30 April has been posted on the 3rd May for as long as I can remember.... Last 3 years at least. If you want to see last years press the THT RNS ICON in the icon box above and scroll down to 3rd May. It is never advertised, but always turns up like clock work. So hold onto your hat and wait till Thursday.... Always released at 7am too. GLA.
Cocoa prices are set to fall further over second half of the year. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cocoa-beans&months=12 Another big commodity used by Thorntons is also set to dramatically fall over the second half of the year. Raw sugar futures looked set to fall to 22.5 cents a pound in New York on the three-month horizon, and average 21 cents a pound over the whole of 2012, down more than 20% year on year. http://www.agrimoney.com/news/abn-warms-to-many-commodities-but-cool-on-ags--4084.html Both Cocoa and now sugar price falls are going to really positively affect the bottom line. Just in time for Xmas 12.
And now the buying begins!
A drop at PFD yesterday, but full recovery today. Onwards and upwards at PFD and Thortnons too I think?
Think you might be right - we might see some big buys before update next week if our shorter closes his position. I had a little panic last month when the Price dropped to 20p, although bought back in on the rebound. The key for me is the purchase 400,000 shares by the chairman a month or so back. He obviously has sight of the companies figures and future strategy/sales forecast/inventories, etc ..... He clearly didn't buy to make a loss!!!!!!
Amazing entry price, for a company still making a profit and will make further increases in the coming months/years. It's very very rare to have an opportunity presented like this. Ive decided to go all in today. Going to top my pension up as well. GLA
Looks like cocoa price have nicely settles at USD2.6k/metric tonne, from a high of USD3.4k/metric tonne over the past year. That coupled with a more favourable £/USD exchange rate over the past 12 months is going to have a major positive effect on profit! i.e a 25% drop in raw materials (cocoa) could translate to a £2m to £5m improvement in the bottom line profit. If overall sales have improved over this qtr as well, then this will have a big multiplying affect! This drop will not have fed into the last trading statement, so should come out next week; will definitely show in the end of year results in June. At todays price, Thorntons is an absolute bargain!
Thorntons trading statement due next Wednesday. Here's looking for some excellent Easter and mothers day sales news! Should be a good one.
Had similar discussion with BB posters on a number of other shares that were in difficulties and underwent management change and transformation. TTG underwent restructure - crashed from £2.50 to 19p people said it would never get above 40p..... It's now trading at £1.70. VLX underwent supply issues, needed massive restructure and crashed from £2 to 16p people said this would never get above 40p...... Today it's trading at £2.60. Need I go on.?Thortons crashed from £1.10 to 9.5p couldn't possible get higher than 40p..... Could it???
I don't for one minute think that the weather caused the SP to fall to the lows of a few months ago. What I am saying, is now that the business transformation is underway, the much better weather this year vs last and the significant drop in cocoa price (on of the biggest costs to Thorntons) will have a significant positive leveraging affect of the bottom line. So much so that the update due in a few weeks, will reflect this and shift the SP very quickly north!!!! Don't know about Hendersons - assume they are a shareholder? Kiki. I agree that this will be +40p. Just don't forget to take profit on the way. GLA
Should have read: I WOULDN'T WORRY I would'nt worry about the worldwide vanilla shortage either. Thorntons use vanilla flavouring (manufactured) and not extract (the grown stuff), so the fluctuations in price won't make a blnd bit of difference!!!!! GLA
The weather has a very subtle yet major impact on retail sales. Too cold and people stay indoors, to hot and people head for the beach - see link. The weather this year has gone well for companies like Thornons, unlike last year when, over Xmas people stayed indoors due to the very cold snowy weather and headed away from the shops last Easter to enjoy the glorious heat wave we had. As I say, this year has been completely different and will have a beneficial affect - Probably why the Chairman bought 400,000 shares at 25p!!!! http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/UKCIP_Business.pdf I would worry about the worldwide vanilla shortage either. Thorntons use vanilla flavouring (manufactured) and not extract (the grown stuff), so the fluctuations in price won't make a blnd bit of difference!!!!! GLA
Great entry point at the moment, especially with results due out in just under 3 weeks. The three month graph has been tracking consistently and steadily north over this period. I wonder if Easter has been good enough to restore a small part of the dividend - sales and profit should be ahead, given weather is usually a significant factor for Thortons , the conditions this year have been well in Thorntons favour. GLA