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Lurker5
Lamu is not in FC yet. They had to wait for the court case to be decided. I think expect FC later this year.
So not being built!
Also when you buy 20% of something, it is 20% of the equity. Debt holders don't own anything. But agree the amount looks quite high
I am talking to someone at Centum on other things and will ask them anout Lamu. They own 51% of Lamu, so will try to find out what GE paid
aerial
this is really appalling, LSE are just absolute crap and keep removing posts
I am going to set up a Twitter private group to discuss KIBO and anyone is welcome to join. I will post the link and instructions when get to it
Just checking some of the financials. One of their original backers, the Kenyan investment vehicle Centum had Amu valued at 40 mln USD in their books, at cost! Which sounds about right
So how could they manage to sell a 20% stake for 400 mln USD, as stated here!
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/GE-buys-Sh40bn-stake-in-Lamu-coal-plant/4003102-4566090-11crxxm/index.html
Lamu is not even finalised the FC but has the PPA signed!
Even for a happy clapper like me, this sounds too good! A massive development premium!!
Lurker5
I was talking about the Lamu project, where GE have taken 20% stake in the project company for 400mln USD, ie valuing the project at 2bln!
With overall costs (equity and debt) likely to be in the 2bln ball park figure too. But equity only should have been more like 500mln at FC if assume 25/75 split
Lurker5
On the piggy in the middle point.
I have some piggy's turning into really big and fat pigs as middleman!!!!
Sepco and GE want access to the market. Tanesco and Tanz want electricity, eg they have no chance industrialising their economy with current capacity.
Let's not forget that the rural electrification programme is in full swing, all funded by the West, the new SGR is coming on soon. Many industrial clients want reliable and cheap electricity, eg just look at our neighbours Shanta needing to install their own generators which must be costing them lots.
The main backbone Hogh Voltage infrastructure is done - from the Lakes down to Mbeya
I can see a lot of untapped demand and measly 300 MW can be easily taken by their growing economy and existing unmet demand
Lurker5
May I disagree as the GE's investment was in the project as an equity. I presume there is a debt element too. My guess would be 0.5/1.5 bln split between equity and debt.
So, is this teh development premium. Ie as the GE are late to the show, they have to pay the full whack. So instead of 100mln, they are paying 400 mln for 20% stake?
Lurker
Spot on - "...Sepco is merely protecting its business at a very small cost as supplier for MCPP" apart from not mere supplier but the EPC for the project, ie in charge of the construction of the project! [A bit of negative bend?!?]
As I mentioned earlier, doesn't matter for Sepco if pay 10 or 20p for KIBO shares, we are talking about 15-30 mln. Which is a 1/2 of their profit from just 1 300MW project. Imagine if they get contracts for a few more. Money really well spent!
So that should allow KIBO to keep 40% of the project by putting some of the money as equity and rest being money spent to date (say 15 mln) and development premium (I think NCCL chap said expected smth in the region of 30 or 60 mln, can't quite remember) + 15 mln cash
Kibo said it held discussions with equity and debt providers already, in a number of rns. Every time I talked to LC, he seemed really relaxed about financing. Having Sepco on board should help too
On GE, let's not forget that the chap who wrote the 200 mln check for Lamu, was also in the meeting with LC with the Deputy Minister. I expect both GE and SEPCO to put in equity in the project, too.
But looks like LC is moving in the right circles, eg sharing a stage with key investment mining execs today, including the Deputy Minister of Minerals!!
And LC himself
https://twitter.com/motasummit/status/1014056231516954624
Deputy Minister's address
https://twitter.com/motasummit/status/1014114919141335041/photo/1
Also
Many serious investors, investment management houses and investment bankers there too!!!
I am sure he can talk about Kibo Energy and Katoro's requirements
Has anyone noticed the cobalt element in Haneti? Cobalt is hot hot hot, especially if you want it sourced ethically
H5O
As I said a few time this morning, the sp doesn't matter too much given Sepco's strategic relationship with KIBO
20% profit margin on the MCPP EPC contract of, say 250 mln is cool 50mln profit. So whether they pay 5p or 10p for 100 mln shares is marginal
Despite many, many promises it still has not delivered.
Really?!?
ESIA for both coal mine and power plant (and this is coal powered power plant)
Financial model IBFS etc
MoU for PPA
Final stage of PPA
GE and Sepco on board
etc etc
drax, as posted earlier - look at the bigger picture
Compared to the size of the EPC contract and potential margins there, whether they pay 5p or 50p shouldn't matter for Sepco
150 mln shares at 10p is only 15 mln
3 EPC contracts at say 500mln each, that is less than 1% of the value of those contracts!
Also, in terms of opportunity cost, is assume 20% profit margin on those EPC contracts, this is 300mln profit not earned, if KIBO is not successful.
And as major s/hs, they will be benefiting from Kibo's success!
Gregoir
Compared to the size of the EPC contract and potential margins there, whether they pay 5p or 50p shouldn't matter for Sepco
150 mln shares at 10p is only 15 mln
3 EPC contracts at say 500mln each, that is less than 1% of the value of those contracts!
JD
Spot on! Chinese on the side, so that the Govts in Africa take notice
Capital Funding for KIBO
Reputable and experienced EPC as a partner
All this - any funding at project level should be much much easier! - Chinese banks, Middle Eastern etc
Plus GE's strength