Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
On licence
Seems odd for cb to say def producing in 2020 and revenue at 10m usd.
How far along are we re permits, and is it that quick to production??
How confident in licence
Why so negative? Looks like cash generation of 10m usd pa starting This year? Or am I wrong?
Amazing stuff mate - sounds like you deserve a little luck and I hope you get it
I’m thinking similar. Btw have you thought to lease your car instead? If your car is falling apart check out leasing - i think it makes a lot of sense . Something I discovered recently and would recommend
What’s your hopeful sp target and how much cash in general you hoping to make?
Not trying to deramp here but to me that’s the major concern.
Producing could still mean we don’t cover costs, and therefore lead to a funding gap? Meaning more funding needed?
What makes you all confident here?
I know of a few portfolios that were being traded this year order of 20- 30 m that could be simply bought on the cheap (distressed sales). But some portfolios get much bigger of course.
Ideally you want them to be big so you can diversify out risks and stabilise experience etc
But yeah with average face value in order of hundred thousand dollars and more and maybe few thousand policies in a portfolio sometimes you can get into some big numbers pretty quickly
Yep so that’s pretty much in line with my calcs
Let’s call it 1pc revenue on 100 AUM ie 1m revenue- all paid to expenses
Then once scaled to 500m AUM we’re at something like 5m but costs not higher.
A stream of relatively certain cash flows like that ad infinitum, together with a conservative discount rate of about 5pc gives valuation of something like 20m Mcap for every 100m AUM
Share price in theory is forward looking so if market expects we’ll get to say 500m would expect roughly 100m Mcap
Based very roughly on calcs above
Would say take a large haircut for general discount of Mcap to dcf valuation approach and call it 50m Mcap to 500AUM.
Also am aware of the actuaries involved and agree that actuarial control is covered
Also the number of policies available for this is huge so expect it’s fine to get enough policies no probs. And actually what’s needed is almost making people about to lapse aware of this much better option almost! Ultimately Danny swick can source policies - and I think there are portfolios of these around
No probs if you can send me a way to contact you I’d be happy to. The world of actuarial is a very very niche sector where a lot of us know each other and I’ve spoken to people in the sector directly about life settlements... can share more off this forum if you like.
But essentially provided you have good Actuarial control and risk management (and this can go wrong so this is absolutely critical) you are basically doing arbitrage here and printing money (as long as you can source enough policies . But Danny swick seems to have that down. There was historically a bit of a Wild West in this new sector but it’s kind of gotten better with more experience now. The other thing is with interest rates this low and staying like this for a long time- providing this kind of return allows you to price so conservatively and still make crazy spreads essentially. And I think they’ve even set it up to be tax and capital efficient.
I was actually really excited about the matching adjustment product btw but don’t know what happened to that - to me knowing what a nightmare it is to get PRA approval on it for S2 i thought it was something amazing which is where I began looking at the co.
Anyway if you give me your contact info I’ll get in touch and can share my professional experience.
I have to say I’ve seen a lot of propositions on aim but this is genuinely unique and compelling.
I think possibly because it’s such an obscure thing (insurance is challenging to understand let alone actuarial ) maybe it’s hard to grasp just how brilliant this proposition could be. I’m convinced enough to have put a decent amount of cash in.
I generally appreciate your nice message btw - the message board generally seems to have good natured people which is great and am glad we can discuss this and share knowledge
Appreciate the reply mate. Personally quite confident about it and understand the proposition (am an actuary )
Are we talking about 2pc management charges btw?
If so I guess we translate gbp100m AUM to around 2m pa revenue. Suppose 1m net of expenses
So then let’s do a valuation
Discounted pv as an perpetuity at a conservative 5pc discount rate .
That would give gbp 20m valuation.
Then we can just scale it up by AUM
Not counting any credit for economies of scale it would mean
200m AUM is around 40m gbp market cap and so on
So to me any deals on AUM is the key metric as has been said.
But if we get to 100m we’re laughing as it’s very scalable
Now why would AUM increase? Well 10pc uncorrelated returns is insane returns in this low yield environment. I don’t think there are many better fund propositions than that - ie same risk reward profile and correlation .
So the more AUM we get the more marketable it becomes etc
So seems very good - if those rumours are true think could be life changing stuff!
And about bloody time - Aim has been a nightmare lol so would be good to say it was all worth it in the end. Ironically with a non aim share!!
Raydaar any reason to trust Graham- what’s his track record re predictions?
How are you feeling re rumours - are you buying them?
And generally what’s your view on potential here
I’m a large holder myself and like the idea but had hoped we’d be miles above current sp