Member Info for Xmtman

Timing wise this one also might be coming free from Lancaster. Now that Hurricane have been taken over by Prax. I'm sure that they will be looking at the economics of keeping that field going. https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/BLW_FPSO_AokaMizu_leaflet.pdf.

Https://www.oedigital.com/news/505971-the-evolving-fpso-landscape-healthy-demand-changing-procurement. Lead times are coming down from historical highs . Recently Baleine has gone from FID to 1st oil in less than 20 months . So it can be done if planned correctly .

It appears Navitas are serious about moving this forward and word on street is that is that they have tender requests out some of the longer lead pieces of hardware to make this come to fruition.

Including- ▪ The formulation of the detailed development plan for the project and the promotion of its components while maintaining an ongoing dialogue with the authorities in Falkland and England. The development plan is expected to include elements that will significantly reduce the scope of carbon dioxide emissions during the construction and operation of the project. ▪ Forming the financing plan for the project, which may include, among other things, bank financing, financing through the issuance of bonds, supplier financing and oil traders financing. An additional partner to the project prior to the date of receiving the final investment decision (FID). The partnership intends to act to receive the final investment decision (FID) for the development of phase one during the year 2024. The gradual implementation of the development plan is intended to allow the start of production with limited capital investment, with the following phases, including the balance The development and production drilling will be carried out gradually after the start of production from the oil property. At this preliminary stage, the partnership estimates that the start of production (Oil First) from stage A is expected during the year 2026.

That low cost start up model was done by Amerada Hess on the Hudson Phase 1 development in the NSea 30 plus years ago. Drill a couple of wells plunk a couple of trees down tie back using flexible risers back to a leased vessel for a couple of years to fund the main project.

Got to wonder if Ithaca, now owned by Delek (Israel ) instead of fighting the never ending battle with Cambo approvals might transition the funding to a more amenable/profitable location . If Shell dont want the hassle then Ithaca may find it difficult to push on with Cambo - maybe put it on the back burner and spend the cash on something ready to go and then maybe if the UK government ever wants to improve the climate and economics then Navitas might return the favour to partner up for Cambo after Sealion is generating cash.

Its been a long time since the Ocean Guardian hit the motherlode and the III Bulletin Board was the active vehicle of choice. It would be good to repeat the jump 10p to £4 plus that was seen back in the day. Those were the days - less shares in circulation so more jumps, but a bit of a buzz about the boards back then with some good chat and knowledgeable posters rather than paranoid sniping. Old proverb says empty vessel makes most noise and doesnt it just show.

It feels like we are closer to approval that at any time in the past 10 plus years . A question a few weeks ago was do we need a rig and an FPSO - Yes and a whole lot more. There is a lot that is needed between FID and First Oil and a lot of it is on a very long lead time. First you need a drilling rig to drill the holes (circa $500,000 a day at going rates for a reasonable one - not like the last one that was down there that was past its sell by date) and then metalwork to complete the wells. 11 wells before 1st oil - thats 11 months of work for the rig minimum (about a month a hole) and the metal work will probably take 6 months to preorder before starting to drill. Then the rest of the hardware to connect up all the wells to a central location before piping it up through risers to the FPSO - that normally takes 24 months from order to installation. Then the FPSO itself - rental so it might be off the shelf but it will need adapting for Sealion product and to mate with the subsea connections so that will take time. All of this will need to be in place before the taps are turned on and money starts to flow . So there are a lot of key indicators to progress along the way , Drilling Rig Contract to be let , Subsea Hardware contract, Subsea Infra structure installation contract, FPSO contract. All of this will start to fall into place after FID - but conversations will be happening already as there are limited companies globally that supply all of this hardware all with backlogs of work. So even at this stage requests for Quotes and lead times will be going out to try to firm up prices and plans (with inflation clauses) to all feed into FID calculations. So when Navitas speak about 30 months from FID to 1st Oil thats a fast and tight timeline for this type of operation in a remote location. But with great risk comes great reward good luck to all.