Good find. Clearly lots of positivity happening behind the scenes but there lies the issue with why the share price is dropping - it's behind the scenes. We still haven't heard anything official about the cruise ship that arrived in January.
A business update and contract news would be great for us.
It's not fun watching this slowly drip down each day.
I suspect there has been a few people jumping in with trades timed against the JR appeal expecting to scalp 10-20% from a brief rise to 14p and it hasn't panned out so they're taking their capital back at a loss.
The signs of life you ask for will come when finance is sorted. Until then the don't expect much.
I don't find it hard Stokey. It was announced end of November that 2023 revenue would be 80-100m, so at a worst case that is 55m cash dlow in H2 - presumably from FSS (25m), M55 (20m) and whatever else. In H1 we have Sea Rose (61m) and the final M55 payment (likely 20m+) though that could end up coming in H2. We also completed a barge contract and will likely complete the second one in H1 if we continue with two barges per month.
Therefore I am satisfied with cashflow in H1. I am concerned about cashflow in H2 however due to the lack of announced contracts for the period and I suspect we will need a combination of H1 expected cashflow and the new finance deal to get through H2.
Finance needs to be done well in advance of H2 or the market is going to get panicky when the 2023 audited report comes in. No doubt JW will push that until the end of June again.
I do agree JW could provide more clarity on current cashflow but even if he did people would ignore it and immediately shout cashflow issues. Just as they conveniently ignored the message at the end of December about cashflow. Only a closed finance deal is going to give the reassurance people need.
Judging by the share price and the lack of buying vs selling I think most people are too scared to invest here right now. This share price should be insanely cheap if the story is to be believed (great finance deal, profitable company from 2025 with 300m+ revenue). And yet here we are at 19m market cap and people are selling to chase their losses back on other rainbows.
I still believe we will get finance done in Q1 and that will provide a huge boost to sentiment here and get people interested again, but that needs to be followed up with strong trading statements for 2024 and new contracts for H2 and beyond otherwise people will lose faith again.
I have had a theory for a while now that there's a concerted effort to bring the company down. This all started after the FSS contract was awarded. Constant negative publicity and bear stories appearing.
I saw this article at the weekend but I didn't post it due to the clear anti HARL segment that was inserted into it that reads like a well crafted sponsored post. It's not the first one I've seen in this newspaper. The well timed bear articles on the Share Prophets blog seem to be part of it as well.
I used to work for an online marketing agency and run a small blog. I can tell you that a lot of what you read in online newspapers and Wordpress blogs are sponsored pieces. I have even seen it on the BBC, but it's less in your face. The idea is that the untrained reader doesn't notice. Usually the intent is to boost SEO with inserted links, but with shares it can help a trade in either direction. As a blog owner it's a nice little earner, often more than you'll get from showing adverts in people's faces. I imagine the top newspapers are charging a fortune for such services.
I'm still not convinced there's a large seller but the amount of FUD being spread in recent months has led to some PIs who were bullish giving up on HARL. It only takes a few hundred thousand share sales to drop the share price here when volumes are low.
I doubt there is any large seller. I think it's just PIs getting bored/frustrated and seeking opportunities elsewhere. Telegram and Twitter used to be a hive of activity for HARL but they're pretty much dead these days. When you drag finance out for 15 months and counting with repeated misses to estimates then people are going to lose confidence. JW needs to start delivering on his promises for the trajectory to reverse.
I think we can all see where the negativity comes from with the intention to trade any possible spike.
Who wants to bet we get another blog post from the short crew the day after the JR warning of impending financial meltdown and placings?
I've seen very little talk of HARL on Telegram trader groups or Twitter in recent weeks, I would be surprised if most are even aware there's a JR appeal coming up. If we get a decision date like we did on the original JR then I suspect they will be all over that as it's an easy win. As Kaeren mentioned, there's been so many good trading opportunities in recent weeks.
It's nice to see more liquidity in the market recently, the AIM index is rising and it looks like the bottom was in October. Hopefully that liquidity comes here once the finances are secured. After watching BMN bag on a finance deal last week I'm looking forward to seeing ours come through.
The rise you speak of was in August towards the JR result, not the JR hearing in May. That rise was also largely attributed to the Sea Rose LOI following the collapse of the share price after results in July. It did indeed then pull back after the JR as people were still fearful of finance.
Who knows what will happen over the coming months. Anyone trading out on the JR result runs the risk of being out when the finance news lands. I estimate both to land in Q1.
Fair enough, I didn't know that. :)
So the judges may well spend a bit more time coming to their conclusions in that case. Though I would hope they were as thorough as possible with any judgement they make whether it be high court or court of appeal.