Member Info for Xataxx

Silver $110+

It is evident that Cube knew more than we did and if they are closing fast without creating panic it is possible they are aware of something on the farm out and /or current well development. If 88e can get a farm out than PANR is likely to get a better deal there are too many stakeholders actively looking at Pantheon. There is oil and gas that is for sure. They got it wrong twice third time lets see. Yes, there is paper lose but not all is lost. Don't panic. Hold tight.

Wait for the farm out. No sure how high this can go but we will be out of the woods in the near future.

Silver is unstoppable and there more to come. Wake up guys. Dyor.

share price implications

current: 0.11p per share

modest success target:

low: 0.70p per share (6.4x current)

mid: 1.43p per share (13x current)

high: 2.15p per share (19.5x current)

timeline & key assumptions

this assumes:

both jv partners successfully advance projects over 18-24 months

silver maintains $60-70+ per ounce

pgm prices remain supportive

han**** secures development pathway

no major dilution events

market recognizes value (often lags in small-caps)

in simple terms: even in a modest success scenario where projects are good but not spectacular, alien metals could be worth £80-250 million, representing a 6-19x return from current levels, or share prices of 0.70-2.15p (versus current 0.11p).

modest success case summary

project valuations (30% stakes + han**** 90%)

elizabeth hill silver project:

confirms 5-10 million ounces high-grade silver resource

project valuation: $18-108 million

alien's 30% stake value: £4.2-25 million

munni munni pgm project:

jorc confirms 1.5-2.0 million oz pgm+au

project valuation: $90-320 million

alien's 30% stake value: £21-75 million

han**** iron ore project:

resource expansion progresses

project valuation: $75-200 million

alien's 90% stake value: £53-142 million

listed shareholdings:

west coast silver shares: £2-3 million

greentech shares: £1-2 million

total net worth - modest success case

combined enterprise value: £81-247 million

taking the mid-point: ~£164 million

net return to alien metals

current market cap: £12-13 million

modest success valuation: £81-247 million (mid-point £164m)

returns:

low end: £81m / £13m = 6.2x return (520% gain)

mid-point: £164m / £13m = 12.6x return (1,160% gain)

high end: £247m / £13m = 19x return (1,800% gain)

Success scenarios for Dubhe-1:

High success (35-40% probability):

Pressure buildup shows strong reservoir connectivity

Improved lift gets to 100% load recovery by summer

Oil breakthrough similar to Alkaid 2 pattern (sharp increase at 50-75%)

Reaches 500-1,500+ bopd

Share price: 20-35p (+122-289%)

Moderate success (30-35% probability):

Pressure adequate but not strong

Oil production improves to 200-500 bopd range

Proves marginal commerciality

Share price: 12-18p (+33-100%)

Continued struggle (25-30% probability):

Pressure buildup weak

Oil cut doesn't improve meaningfully

Extended cleanup doesn't yield breakthrough

Share price: 5-8p (-11-44%)

The Theta A Comparison is CRITICAL:

Theta A stopped at 65% load recovery due to suspected wellbore blockage, not because reservoir failed. This suggests:

Getting past 50% is exactly the threshold where things could change

Wellbore issues (not reservoir) can cause problems

The improved lift methods for Dubhe restart could be game-changing

At 9p, the market is pricing in ~70% probability of failure. The technical data suggests 35-40% probability of significant success and 65-70% probability of at least modest success.

The increasing gas rates are the most bullish signal - they suggest Dubhe has fractured into a productive reservoir that just needs proper fluid management. This is an operational challenge, not a geological failure.

The spring restart with improved lift and pressure data will be decisive. Management's decision to pause is financially prudent and technically sound.

My view: At 9p, this is mispriced to the upside if you believe:

The increasing gas rates indicate reservoir productivity

Extended cleanup with better lift can unlock oil flow

Management's technical thesis has merit

This is a binary bet with favorable odds at current levels.

Excellent presentation and good explanation of why the well is PAUSED not cancelled. Excellent questions everyone thanks. Management answered really clearly and in detail. WE ARE NOT DONE YET.

Duster. Is it ? Jog on sir.

Not selling. There is bigger pie to go through. Paper loss for now. Its not an issue. Wait for the webinar. HOLD HOLD HOLD.

Not all is lost.

This is a game of nerves now. Roll on Monday. Shorts vs long-term holders. Short term and day traders are sitting on the fence. GL long term holders.

Stage set for shorts to close.

Hey ho. Disappointing but something is better than nothing.

A lot of positives are expected to come out soon. Hold it tight.

Thank you market. Nothing wrong with the update. I have confidence. Buying more.

The market is so fixated on the Silver mine. Iron ore will be company's main & major source of income. Where are we with the Han c o ck?

From experience AIM is the most leaky part of the LSE. There is something bigger investors are aware of and therefore the piling has started. Market has confidence in WCE and investors on both sides will benefit the most but only the big ones.

Whichever way you slice it. It is worth half a pence at least. More patience needed to bear Board's stupidity.